William Faulkner once wrote that in the South, the past isn’t dead — it isn’t even past.
His words seem eerily appropriate as two Southern Republican presidential candidates are confronted with the racial skeletons in their closets.
First it was Texas Gov. Rick Perry and “Niggerhead,” the alleged name of his family’s hunting camp. Now, it’s fellow Texan Ron Paul’s sundry offensive statements about blacks, arguing among other things that in the wake of the Los Angeles riots, “order was only restored when it came time for the blacks to collect their welfare checks,” and that “95 percent of black men in Washington are semi-criminal or entirely criminal.”
As Perry and Paul probably know, the modern Republican Party has its rhetorical roots in George Wallace and Barry Goldwater’s states’ rights rhetoric from the 1960s. Wallace laid the foundation for a generation of Republican hegemony in presidential elections via deft manipulation of racial and cultural issues; Richard Nixon and his guru Kevin Phillips studied Wallace’s tactics closely. Nixon’s 1969-’72 strategy, which focused on appealing to the 10 million Wallace voters from ’68, heralded a partisan realignment that would shape American politics for the next half-century, as Phillips himself predicted in 1969’s “Emerging Republican Majority.”
So when Ronald Reagan went to Philadelphia, Miss., where three civil rights workers were brutally murdered in 1963, to kick off his 1980 general election bid and proclaimed that “the spirit of Jefferson Davis lives in this year’s Republican Party platform,” it was no accident. Rather, it was a rare statement of the Republican Party’s fundamental strategy since 1964.
Read the rest of… Jeff Smith: From Wallace to Paul to Perry
There is a perception that OJ Simpson in his vintage years, the mid seventies, was the last cultural icon who wore a football jersey. In contrast, it is said that the modern football era has yielded an array of physically gifted, prodigiously skilled athletes who have shattered records and redefined the limits of the game, but have made no deep imprint on the society that reveres their talent.
The last part is a true enough description of the largely impact free zone of the contemporary football star. The first observation, however, is flawed memory. It was not Simpson, for all his California glitter and celebrity, who was the last of a kind—it was a Mississippian who migrated north named Walter Payton. Jeff Pearlman, in his 2011 biography of the Chicago Bears Hall of Famer, “Sweetness”, reminds us that for about a decade, well beyond the normal career span of an NFL back, Walter Payton was the exemplary star who resonated well beyond his sport–especially if you were a Chicagoan eager for a hero in the aftermath of that city’s dismal decade of the seventies; an African American who relished the style of a charismatic HBCU grad effortlessly crossing racial barriers; or a lover of an underdog story who understood the depths in the South from which Payton ascended.
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Even for Americans who only dimly knew the fine print of Payton’s athletic feats, he was the 80s sports celebrity who died too early and through no fault of his own, and his demise in 1999 from a rare liver cancer at 46 provoked tributes fit for the civic legend he had become.
“Sweetness” is a minutely researched, powerfully written narrative that gives the iconic side of Payton its due, but may be the most controversial sports biography of the past year. The football side of the account is not in dispute; to a degree not well remembered today, Payton was uncommonly good for an astonishingly long time. From 1976 to 1986, Payton amassed over 1200 yards each full season, topped the NFL record books for career rushing yards (and still ranks second, behind only Emmitt Smith), and at one point held the record for single game yards and consecutive 100 yard games. In a sport where the brutality of contact erodes skills quickly, Payton’s prolonged brilliance still arguably makes him the finest running back the NFL has produced.
By John Y. Brown III, on Wed Jan 4, 2012 at 12:30 PM ET
Post Election Final Thoughts:
I applaud yesterday’s chaotic, surprising, and uniquely American process leading to the narrowest of narrow victories by the front-runner and a near shocking underdog upset–accompanied by a respectable third place finish from an independent and brainy gadfly.
It reinforces my belief in our democratic system. And however messy and unpredictable, it’s still a thing of beauty to behold. And to be grateful for.
Finally, if I had to pinpoint a regret it is that the race didn’t last one more week and have one more candidate with one more wise admonition. The extra week may have allowed Sen Santorum’s sensational surge to run its course ….and see the final candidate I would like to have seen in the mix peak and prevailed at just the right moment, Chance Gardner. And in his acceptance speech, in my fanciful ending, candidate Gardner would admonish Americans in Iowa and beyond by quoting Voltaire from Candide (discussing Chance’s favorite topic, gardening). “Let us cultivate our own garden.”
But I’m a romantic. And it was a Republican primary. Let’s be real. A French quote (even a self-reliant quote) to summarize the moment’s electoral message, was probably too much to ask.
By Michael Steele, on Wed Jan 4, 2012 at 11:24 AM ET
Did you see what happened last night?! My oh my! How close can you get? Back and forth, tension building with every tick of the clock, running late into the evening. But in the end, Michigan won!
Oh, you thought I meant the Iowa caucuses? Michigan vs. Virginia Tech was to be expected. Romney vs. The Field was just exasperating!
How is it Romney’s team spends the last two years playing down his Iowa chances, then undoes it all over the weekend by declaring they expect a win, effectively turning what should have been a solid victory into a perceived loss? That is a massive strategic blunder that handed Santorum added momentum heading into NH, and makes Newt effectively Santorum’s straw man. This is NOT how one defeats Obama in the fall.
As the pundits and Wednesday morning quarterbacks assess the winners and losers of last night’s Iowa caucuses, one verdict is clear: Our savvy gang of RPs couldn’t shoot straight.
Reviewing their predictions from yesterday, click here for the infamous post, only RP staffer Zack Adams predicted the correct finish of the top 6 candidates, and former Alabama Congressman Artur Davis was the only recovering politician to predict the correct order of the top 3.
Most humiliated was The RP himself. Not only did he forecast a last-minute Ron Paul surge (30 points — come on?!?), but then, after the entrance polls “confirmed” his predictions, he bragged on Twitter and Facebook about how he was whipping fellow RPs Jeff Smith and John Y. Brown, III. We imagine that the RP has crawled back into his spider hole awaiting redemption in New Hampshire.
At least recovering politicians can laugh at themselves. Here’s John Y.’s thoughts from last night when it looked like the RP and Jeff Smith had bested him:
Post Iowa Primary Prediction: Although it’s still too early to know how things will shake out tonight….it appears Jonathan Miller and Jeff Smith and a passel of others from the RP blog, will do a better job predicting tonight’s outcome than I did.
So, I need to come back in a big way tomorrow—and I will!!
My big prediction? Newt Gingrich will go long and score big –again—with the one Secret… Weapon he has mastered so well—the florid and grandiose press release.
I predict Newt will provide a “shock and awe” release tomorrow morning that taps into something in millions of American voters who know deep down that any candidate who can use words like “literati” and “minions” in a campaign press release is a man who can and probably should be president.
And maybe, just maybe, history and Providence will ensure that “Out of the billowing smoke and dust of tweets and trivia emerged Gingrich.”
After two years of campaign, hundreds of pundit prognostications, and thousands of cable news sound bites, at long last, what you’ve been waiting for…
Our fearless contributors — Contributing RPs, Friends of RP and RP Staff — offer their predictions for tonight’s Iowa caucuses.
And you can too — please give us your predictions in the Comments section below.
Without further ado…(Click on their name to find out their background)…
The RP: Paul 30%; Romney 25%; Santorum 21%; Gingrich 7%; Perry 6%; Bachmann 4%, Huntsman 1%. I don’t think Rick “Man On Dog” Santorum’s organization is strong enough to take advantage of his surge. I also think Paul’s support is underestimated in the polls because his grassroots support is so fervant, and the tin foil hat crowd among his followers are fearful of pollsters. Remember Pat Robertson?
Jeff Smith: Santorum 27; Romney 23; Paul 23; Perry 11; Gingrich 9; Bachmann 6. I think some Bachmann/Gingrich/Perry folks walk in to their caucus, see how outnumbered they are by Sant-mentum, and get on the bandwagon.
Jason Grill: Romney, Paul, and Santorum will finish first, second, and third. The order though is more “up in the air” than George Clooney was in his recent Oscar nominated movie. Organization and friends twisting other friends arms at the caucuses will decide the order of the top three. If Romney finishes third that WILL be news and change the race somewhat moving forward. He will be seen as an even weaker front runner if this happens. Also, it will be interesting to see where Perry and Gingrich finish tonight. Keep a lookout for their percentages at the end of the night. A fourth place finish for Perry over Gingrich will signal a potential showdown with Romney in South Carolina. Lastly, I am anxious to see how Huntsman finishes in next week’s New Hampshire primary after skipping Iowa.
Mark Nickolas: Paul (25%); Romney (23%); Santorum (22%); Gingrich (11%); Perry (10%); Bachmann (6%). Iowa requires a level of commitment from supporters unlike anywhere else. Those with the best state organization and strongest levels of commitment do especially well (Paul and Paul). Also, since Independents and Dems can participate if they want to cross over — as Indies did for Obama in ’08 — that’s likely to help Paul the most. Nefarious (aka loyal) Dems are going to support anyone but Romney to ensure a protracted GOP race, with Paul and Santorum benefitting most.
Rod Jetton: I think Ron Paul will just nip Romney and Rick Santorum will get third. Newt probably finishes in 4th. The Ron Paul forces are dedicated and with his numbers going up they and their friends have started believing he can win. They will turn out and surprise all the experts.
Greg Harris: Santorum – 26%; Romney – 25%; Paul – 21%; Gingrich – 12%; Bachman – 8%; Perry – 7%; Huntsman – 1%. Santorum’s diligent grassroots work throughout the State this past year will pay off, resulting in more ardent caucus warriors advocating his case, and moving some on-the-fence Bachman and Perry supporters. Ron Paul’s fanatical base will still assure him over an over 20% showing. The minority moderate voters will hold their noses and back Romney.
Read the rest of… Our Contributors Predict the Iowa Caucuses…
By John Y. Brown III, on Tue Jan 3, 2012 at 12:00 PM ET
U-Turns!
Driving in California is like being in the middle of a really bad video game where you never seem to figure out how to beat the system.
Fortunately, U-turns are all the rage out here and are great at minimizing time lost by inevitable driving mistakes.
And thank goodness for GPS systems. I have been so dependent on mine today that we are actually developing a relationship of sorts.
She–t…he monotone, always cool as a cumber, pleasant yet motherly voice from my GPS– has told me today at least a dozen times, “Take the next legal U-Turn.” A few minutes ago she said, “Take a right and then take the next legal U-Turn.”
I responded emphatically to her, “Lady, I was born ready to take the next legal U-Turn.” And I think I meant it.
And at some level, I think she heard me and smiled in that way that only the GPS voice-overs can smile to themselves.
Oh, and I know she has to always say “the next ‘legal’ U-Turn” but just once I’d like to hear her say, “Take the next U-Turn….Notice I didn’t say ‘legal’ either. I can’t explain it, I just want to be bad today.”
That would be cool. And I’d pay an extra dollar a month for the possibility of that happening. And I could say back, “Don’t worry sister, I already did.”
Nebraska Democrat Ben Nelson’s announcement that he is retiring from the Senate can be seen in three different ways. One is that he simply confronted poor poll numbers, coupled with the politics of a state red enough that Barack Obama is guaranteed to lose it.
Second, Nelson’s demise can be seen as a final verdict on a maneuver that transpired almost exactly two years ago. In case you forgot, Nelson and his Arkansas counterpart, Blanche Lincoln, are the two conservative Democrats who saved the health-care overhaul in late December 2009. Had these two senators stuck to their criticisms of the bill, it would have died in the Senate in late 2009. The bill likely would have been downsized to a modest expansion of Medicaid and some tighter rules for pre-existing illness exclusions.
Instead, both senators, reluctant to be blamed for the failure of a 63-year-old Democratic-agenda piece and fearing nationally funded primary opposition from the left, swallowed hard and voted yes.
Neither Lincoln nor Nelson recovered. Lincoln lost in 2010. For Nelson, a significant infusion of off-year independent ad expenditures and relentless attention to Nebraska-based concerns failed to rescue his numbers from the depths they reached after the health-care vote. In Nelson’s case, the failure must be especially galling — given that he traded his vote for a provision that pumped extra federal Medicaid dollars into his state.
The “Nebraska compromise” was never honored, and it was a trade Nebraskans never liked anyway, given their resistance to the rest of the law and, perhaps, their indifference as residents of a low-poverty state to a poverty-based program like Medicaid.
By Michael Steele, on Mon Jan 2, 2012 at 3:06 PM ET
Happy New Year! And what a year it’s going to be. But first, the GOP has to nominate someone for president–and it all begins in Iowa.
Sitting atop some rather interesting scaffolding above the Polk Convention Center floor I got to thinking about the next 36 hours or so and how the worm has turned during this GOP primary. After recent, but brief rides on the Cain Train and the Gingrich bus is everyone now in the back of the Santorum pick-up truck? From what it sounds like on the ground, I think Rick is going to need a bigger truck.
From hanging out with folks at Java Joe’s (great coffee BTW) to a ride in an elevator, everyday Iowans have been offering up their thoughts on this race and Rick Santorum has become (at least for the moment) their kind of candidate.
So what does this mean for Romney? It’s all good as long as Rick remembers his place. Meaning: He shouldn’t let any success he may have on Tuesday night go to his head. If he does, the Romney Team and their 527s will make an “adjustment” for him. For now at least, Romney loves how Santorum has filled in the gaps for conservatives after the masterful filleting of Gingrich over the past two weeks. But trust me, if Santorum comes out of Iowa with a close 2nd or heaven forbid, outright wins the caucuses, then watch for those filet knives to come out for Santorum.
Why? Because a Santorum win in Iowa translates into an opportunity for the 75% of the GOP base which still can’t seem to bring themselves to support Romney to coalesce behind Rick (much like they started to do with Newt) and THAT won’t work for Romney. But, Rick has an advantage the other “anti-Romney” candidates did not have: it’s only one week until the next contest which will require some quick work in order to soften up support for Santorum and to make the ugly stuff stick.
One other thought, as the New Hampshire sun rises on Wednesday morning, watch for a different type of engagement from Gingrich (and Perry?) as attention shifts to the Nation’s first Primary. Yesterday in a back and forth with Chris Matthews, the former Speaker let it be known he had had enough of taking it on the chin from the Romney camp. Grab your popcorn. This is going to get good.
By Jonathan Miller, on Sun Jan 1, 2012 at 12:00 PM ET
Happy New Year!
I hope 2012 brings you joy, laughter, love, happiness, and many pints of tasty hummus. Here at The Recovering Politician, we plan some exciting new features that we will share with you in the weeks ahead.
For now, as you rest and recover from your New Year’s Eve celebration — and recharge your batteries for a busy January — I wanted to share with you some good reading material.
The first nine months at The Recovering Politician have seen more than 1200 posts from over three dozen contributors. I share my favorites below; please let me know what I missed in the comments section:
Our most popular writer, hands down, has been contributing RP and former Missouri State Senator Jeff Smith. Jeff’s first piece — the story of his rise into national celebrity, his dramatic fall that resulted in a prison term, and his hopes for redemption — put the RP on the national map, earning recognition from New York magazine’s “Approval Matrix.” Jeff’s followup — about love and sex behind bars — drew in nearly 100,000 readers, literally crashing the Web site. Jeff’s become a national sensation — expect much more from him in 2012.
Contributing RPMichael Steele was already a national sensation before he joined the site — you know him as the former Lt. Governor of Maryland, as well as the Chairman of the Republican National Committee. Now a regular contributor to MSNBC, Michael shared with RP readers his vision of the new American Dream, and assessed both President Barack Obama and Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. Over the next few days, Michael will report from the Iowa caucuses; and in the year ahead, he will share his lively take on politics — and other subjects as well.
Another familiar face at the site in 2011 was another former Lt. Governor of Maryland, contributing RPKathleen Kennedy Townsend. Kathleen elucidated her well-versed take on faith and politics, while slamming a then-ascendant Rick Perry for misusing faith, defended Sarah Palin(!), and shared her unique perspective as a member of the nation’s most iconic political family. Her most popular piece was on, of all things, home births. Expect the same kind of wide variety from Kathleen at The RP in the coming months.
One of the RP’s most prolific contributing RPs was former Alabama Congressman Artur Davis. Artur wrote a fascinating, insightful piece about political authenticity, plunged into the centuries-old debate on race and politics, and explored the Democratic Party’s faith gap. Some of his most popular pieces were book reviews, taking on new works about Harry Truman and Bobby Kennedy. Artur’s not been shy about controversy, angering conservatives by attacking his home state’s “ugly” immigration law, and riling liberals by supporting its new Voter ID law. Don’t expect Artur to pull any punches in 2012.
Contributing RP and former Missouri state House Speaker Rod Jetton is also one who is not a stranger to controversy. At the peak of his power, Rod was charged with ethics and criminal violations, and while he was cleared of everything, he stepped down to begin his second act. Rod’s 3-part series about his “Success, Scandal and Change” was one of the site’s most widely read, and he concluded the year with a touching 4-part series on his best friend, a fallen Marine. In the middle, he showed off a wry sense of humor in a video interview with his unlikely pal, contributing RP Jeff Smith (you have to see Rod’s imitation of Jeff).
Jason Atkinson, an Oregon State Senator and contributing RP, underwent a different kind of political recovery — he had to withdraw from a promising gubernatorial campaign after he accidentally shot himself while hunting. He writes about the experience — with graphic charts — in “A Real Political Recovery,” but also created an Internet sensation with short films he directed on more successful outdoor adventures fishing for trout in “Big Mo” and “Half Pounder.” He also showed off his own wicked sense of humor, imitating Abe Lincoln and citing the wisdom of Homer…Simpson that is.
Our newest contributing RP, former Virginia Congressional Democratic nominee Krystal Ball, has already generated considerable reader interest with her first piece about Why We Need More Women in Politics. Krystal should know; her first campaign for office was interrupted by a ridiculous media inquiry into pictures taken of her in college; PG-13 pictures that caused a mini-national-sensation only because of Krystal’s gender. As a regular contributor to MSNBC and here at The RP, Krystal will help us view politics in a much different way.
Finally, I feel very fortunate — and so is the RP Nation — to have convinced my good friend, contributing RP, and former Kentucky Secretary of State, John Y. Brown, III to share his incisive social and political commentary, along with his uproarious sense of humor, at The RP. John Y. helped set the theme and tone of the site with his early piece, “What Do We Do Now?,” in which he offered a 20-question quiz to help readers determine if they were in need of political recovery. More recently, we’ve launched a regular feature, John Y.’s Musings from the Middle, in which he shares his wit and wisdom on topics varying from fruitcake to the death penalty to Lindsay Lohan. We guarantee a lot of laughs, as well as thoughtful advice, in the year ahead.
Thanks for joining us in 2011. Stay tuned for a wild and wonderful 2012.
As Perry and Paul probably know, the modern Republican Party has its rhetorical roots in George Wallace and Barry Goldwater’s states’ rights rhetoric from the 1960s. Wallace laid the foundation for a generation of Republican hegemony in presidential elections via deft manipulation of racial and cultural issues; Richard Nixon and his guru Kevin Phillips studied Wallace’s tactics closely. Nixon’s 1969-’72 strategy, which focused on appealing to the 10 million Wallace voters from ’68, heralded a partisan realignment that would shape American politics for the next half-century, as Phillips himself predicted in 1969’s “Emerging Republican Majority.”
