Jeff’s post reminds me of the famous story about the Nixon –Kennedy debates.
On TV Nixon, who had refused pancake make-up, had his infamous 5 o’clock shadow and sweated profusely. Kennedy, by contrast, was cool, calm, and collected—and at his Kennedy-esque best.
Those voters watching on television believed Kennedy won by a 3-1 margin. Those listening on radio believed Nixon won by a 3-1 margin.
Which opens up an entire new line of discussion: How has TV has changed the message and the messengers—we get for political candidates today?
Abe Lincoln would have withdrawn from Iowa months before Michelle Bachmann had to. And if Mitt Romney had showed up to debate with Lincoln and Stephen Douglass a while back, he would’ve have been laughed off stage and beaten up as a dandy. But that’s another thread altogether.
Read the rest of… The RPs Debate Presidential Leadership: John Y. Defends
Love reading everyone’s posts…especially Rod’s, because unlike most of you, I can hear the accent and it makes me feel as if i’m back home in Missour-ah.
It’s really hard to top the insightful analysis you all provided. So I’ll just say this, at the risk of offending: Most campaigns can largely be reduced to sex appeal.
Oh sure, there are a few voters who read a candidate’s seven white papers, and the opponent’s seven white papers, and decide that they agree with Candidate A on four and Candidate B on three, and so they’re gonna vote for Candidate A.
But those voters are regrettably rare. The majority are like Rod’s harem and vote on appearance. This is why I find it so mystifying that the RP ever got elected dogcatcher. [ED’s Note: HEY?!?!]
Campaigns are largely about likeability and, implicitly, sexuality. I hired attractive, appealing college kids in part to lure other kids to volunteer. I flirted with women in senior centers. Did I hone my policy chops? Sure, but unfortunately, I probably winked at ten times more guys in the Pridefest parade than I gave policy answers to. Sorry, I’m 5’5″; I had to WORK it, baby.
Read the rest of… The RPs Debate Presidential Leadership: Jeff Smith Rebuts
Great points, John Y. I really was not taking shots at you for having feelings. Clearly, I need to soften up a bit myself. I very much enjoyed your post and definitely can relate to switching from running the race to just coaching. Although, I still like to tell everyone how fast I used to be.
But on Romney, I think the “he’s out of touch, or not one of us” analysis is too deep. I’m not saying in a general election independent voters may feel that way, but Republican primary voters are simply wary of a guy who said he was pro-choice and OK with gun control.
Additionally, his Mormon faith is hard for many evangelicals to swallow. Most of us have been taught all our lives that Mormonism is a cult. So for many evangelicals, getting past that takes a lot of work. They will vote for anyone who is even close to their views before picking a Mormon.
Maybe some voters feel it makes him different from them as you and Krystal noted, but most primary voters who have a problem with his religion will admit he is great at business, and he is good on the issues but…
Great commentary and insights and I feel the Alpha-male urge to jump in and defend my original point. No sucker punches. Promise. But possibly some territorial markings.
First, Rod, please forgive my depth and seeming over-analysis. I try not to reflect in mixed political company because it’s bad manners. Reflectiveness, I feel, is the liberal counter-point to Republican toughness. George Bush II, Rudy Giuliani, Dick Cheney and much of the Republican leadership class for the past decade ran the electoral tables with the tough guy brand. By contrast, we Democrats fought back with candidates that promised to out-reflect and out-analyze their republican opponents. This Democratic approach has not worked well electorally.
In fact, it was observing Republican campaign tactics over the past couple of decades that led me to conclude the key to electability isn’t an intellectual exercise or the sum and substance of a campaign platform — but rather a successful visceral appeal. And that Democrats needed to find a way to connect with voters in a more raw and basic way than reeling off data and exuding likability.
Read the rest of… The RPs Debate Presidential Leadership: John Y. Defends
I want to start where Rod’s insightful and very honest post (particularly for someone who worked for the candidate!) left off. Rod said he wished Romney would “walk into a room with his hair messed up in a t-shirt and jeans grab the mike and say, ‘I’m a heck of a good businessman and I’m going to kick Obamas butt and fix this country. You can either get on board my train or I’m running you over!’”
Rod’s right. This is exactly what Republican voters want to hear this year. Unfortunately for Governor Romney, it’s also exactly the kind of line that with or without actual swearing, Romney is completely incapable of delivering in a non-cringeworthy way. Mitt’s problems have less to do with the ins and outs of his flip-flops and more to do with the fact that those flip-flops feed the narrative of what everyone suspects: Romney is a privileged, out of touch, overly ambitious guy whose positions are poll-tested and designed to reflect what the electorate wants to hear, not what Romney actually believes. In fact, I’d go so far as to say that they suspect he holds no core beliefs. Jeff described Romney as “perfect.” Voters don’t see perfect though, they see too good to be true.
The fact that Mitt doesn’t share the religion of the vast majority of Republican primary voters is also not the problem per se. The problem is that Governor Romney’s religion feeds another narrative that voters suspect is true of Romney: that he’s fundamentally unlike you and your neighbors. You can’t relate to him and he can’t relate to you. How can you trust this guy to get what your family is going through when he seems so unlike you? How can you trust him to fight for you?
Machiavelli says that it is critical for leaders to be either feared or loved and between the two, it’s better to be feared. In America though, I think we prefer to have something like 3 parts love to 2 parts fear in our Presidents. Obama, even now with the initial luster worn off his persona, is loved by his base. But he has another side that’s on display when he says: “Ask Osama Bin Laden if I engage in appeasement.” George W. Bush, Clinton, and Reagan all were loved and feared. In fact over the past several decades, I would argue that the two one-term Presidents, Carter and Bush 41, failed to win reelection because they were neither really loved nor really feared. Could America love Romney? Fear him?
Read the rest of… The RPs Debate Presidential Leadership: Krystal Ball Rebuts
John Y’s post was deep. All the psychological stuff is a bit too touchy feely for this Marine. I don’t know if he was a psychology minor in college or if his wife has him watching too many chick flicks. Either way, it was too deep for me. But as I think back to comments from the important women in my life, maybe I need to learn from John Y. or watch more chick flicks.
That being said, I agree with the RP and think analyzing Romney’s problems with Republican voters is much easier. I ran Romney’s 2008 Missouri campaign and I’m still pulling for him, but he has two basic problems.
First, he is a Mormon. I know it’s not politically correct (PC) to admit that a candidate’s religion can hurt them, but reality pays no attention to PC. There are many evangelicals who have a major problem with Mormons. They like the family values, but they have a serious mistrust of the Mormon faith. Evangelicals are a important part of most Republican primaries. Iowa is a good example both in 2004 and 2008.
His second problem are his flip flops. Politics is a crazy business and most successful politicians massage their views depending on the situation or audience. The Internet has made it harder than it used to be, but each week we hear about some comment a politician made at a fundraiser or event that rubs the other party and Independents the wrong way.
Romney’s problem is he has changed his mind on some really important and big issues for Republicans. The top 2 are probably abortion and gun control, but the health care issue ranks up at the top as well.
Most realistic political observers realizes that to win a Governor’s race in Massachusetts as a Republican, a candidate has to be a bit more moderate. But we all know that the most hardcore primary voters in each party are anything but realistic. When running for Governor, Romney took some moderate stands that helped him win and later govern. That was then, but the presidential primary is now, and those past views are not helpful today.
The flip flops allow conservative Republicans who already have concerns about Romney’s faith to justify distrusting him. I know this because I talked to hundreds of them 4 years ago.
By Zack Adams, RP Staff, on Mon Jan 9, 2012 at 9:30 AM ET
Romney’s still the frontrunner, but it doesn’t feel nearly as good as a tie for first should’ve felt for him.
Santorum has a window here. As has always been the case, Romney is in deep trouble in a two- or three-way race, assuming one of the others is Paul and the third is a strong social conservative. Perry and Bachmann will drop out before New Hampshire, I think. Perry made sure that 2/3 to 3/4 of their votes don’t go to Romney or Paul; they go to Santorum or Newt. But since AngryNewt will be running a kamikazi mission to damage Romney, not many will go to him.
A couple other side notes: the Santorum working-class contrast vs. the Mitt/Bain “guy who laid you off” could be effective in the battle for votes in what is, at the rank-and-file level, a largely downscale party.
Finally, Huntsman’s mini-boomlet in New Hampshire combined with Paul’s continued strength could deny Romney the big New Hampshire that the press has already discounted. So, Santorum has a shot here. He needs to do a few things: 1) find the best online fundraising team in Republican politics and sign them up; 2) Convince a few national conservative leaders to step up this week and try to unite conservatives nationally around him which means coaxing Bachmann out if she won’t decide herself; 3) Make sure he gets on the ballot everywhere and avoids Newt-like logistical screw-ups; and 4) Soft-pedal New Hampshire and focus on South Carolina; the Mormon issue is not going away in the Deep South.
All in all, the night couldn’t have gone much better for Santorum, and the most important piece of it was Perry all but announcing his departure.
By John Y. Brown III, on Mon Jan 9, 2012 at 8:30 AM ET
Today, we launch a new feature at The Recovering Politician: The RPs Debate. In this format, one of our contributors will make a provocative post, and others will jump in with their responses. We will publish a new response every half hour. If you like it, we’ll try it again soon. If not, at least some of us had a fun weekend arguing.
When women kiss it always reminds me of prize fighters shaking hands. — HL Mencken.
I thought of this quote watching the Iowa presidential primary returns last week. I was thinking about the basic competitiveness among the men and women–with their own sex.
That quote made me laugh when I read if for the first time as a college student because, as a guy, I was just starting to notice that women were often more competitive than they seemed. Of course, women know this all along but young men– who tend only to notice round objects that can be thrown or resemble the shape of a sandwich or remote control — often miss subtler body language.
Fast forward another 20 years, and I begin to notice the subtler competitiveness among men. Oh, I suppose I always sensed it but never paid full attention to it — until recently. The put down, the standing slightly taller, the one upsmanship stories, the sarcastic joke that makes you a bad sport if you don’t laugh at yourself But there is another level…that is more concerning and more important among men. Fear of being replaced by a younger man….that mixes envy and fear and pride. The mature man becomes generative….a mentor. He accepts his new role with gusto and doesn’t try anymore to win foot races against younger men but to help coach him and teach him not only how to run faster but to be a better man, husband and father. Women, of course, experience this too but I’ve been thinking more about the male reaction to this pressure and it’s significance — to individuals, to families, and even to nations.
So, what does it look like in it’s most basic form? Like this (watch clip below)
Read the rest of… The RPs Debate: Presidential Leadership — John Y Provokes
By John Y. Brown III, on Fri Jan 6, 2012 at 9:00 AM ET
I want to share a few memories about Gatewood Galbraith, a KY statesmen, who died Tuesday night in his sleep.
I don’t claim to know Gatewood as a good friend, but he was much more to me than a casual acquaintance. I ran in several statewide races alongside Gatewood.
Political candidates are a bit like athletes traveling together across the state appearing to shake hands and give speeches wherever twoor more registered voters are gathered. There is a camaraderie that develops. And a respect and friendship that lasts.
As a young man I knew Gatewood the way everyone else knew him, as the hilarious, unrestrained, whip-smart, loquacious character who added comic relief and trenchant insights to KY’s governor’s races.
One of the first debates I watched with Gatewood he defended medicinal marijuana by saying something along the lines of “We aren’t talking about people who get drunk, cross state lines and trash hotel rooms. We are talking about people who will mellow out and order a pizza and fall asleep.”
But because he wanted to legalize medicinal marijuana (coupled with the fact he looked like he just dressed himself and shaved from the back seat of his car) he was never taken as seriously as he could have been. And I wondered how seriously he wanted to be taken. Gatewood could have been an able governor had he ever found a way to get elected, but I’m not sure he really ran to win. I think he ran because he couldn’t not run and because he had something to say and people wanted to hear it. And it beat practicing law seven days a week.
And he was at good running for office—extraordinary, in fact. It just made sense for Gatewood to run. And keep running. And because of that, he mattered a lot to a lot of people across our great state.
Read the rest of… John Y. Brown, III: A Few Memories About a KY Statesman
By John Y. Brown III, on Thu Jan 5, 2012 at 12:30 PM ET
It’s not a medical breakthrough to reverse memory loss.
Consider it more of a coping mechanism. And a darned good one at that.
Maybe memory loss is inevitable with the aging process….but don’t despair. Don’t cede anything to our younger colleagues! Instead, finesse!
You don’t need to know a whole lot in this life to be profoundly effective, successful and fulfilled. We really need only to kno…w “a little.”
The trick is to have some attitude about the little we still retain. And sometimes, if need be, ratchet up a little more attitude to drive the point home.
Afraid you’ll have trouble remembering all this? Don’t. Watch the video–repeatedly–until it becomes second nature. It says it all. And with the attitude.
John Y.‘s Second Defense
Romney’s still the frontrunner, but it doesn’t feel nearly as good as a tie for first should’ve felt for him.
So, Santorum has a shot here. He needs to do a few things: 1) find the best online fundraising team in Republican politics and sign them up; 2) Convince a few national conservative leaders to step up this week and try to unite conservatives nationally around him which means coaxing Bachmann out if she won’t decide herself; 3) Make sure he gets on the ballot everywhere and avoids Newt-like logistical screw-ups; and 4) Soft-pedal New Hampshire and focus on South Carolina; the Mormon issue is not going away in the Deep South.