Romney’s still the frontrunner, but it doesn’t feel nearly as good as a tie for first should’ve felt for him.
Santorum has a window here. As has always been the case, Romney is in deep trouble in a two- or three-way race, assuming one of the others is Paul and the third is a strong social conservative. Perry and Bachmann will drop out before New Hampshire, I think. Perry made sure that 2/3 to 3/4 of their votes don’t go to Romney or Paul; they go to Santorum or Newt. But since AngryNewt will be running a kamikazi mission to damage Romney, not many will go to him.
A couple other side notes: the Santorum working-class contrast vs. the Mitt/Bain “guy who laid you off” could be effective in the battle for votes in what is, at the rank-and-file level, a largely downscale party.
Finally, Huntsman’s mini-boomlet in New Hampshire combined with Paul’s continued strength could deny Romney the big New Hampshire that the press has already discounted.
So, Santorum has a shot here. He needs to do a few things: 1) find the best online fundraising team in Republican politics and sign them up; 2) Convince a few national conservative leaders to step up this week and try to unite conservatives nationally around him which means coaxing Bachmann out if she won’t decide herself; 3) Make sure he gets on the ballot everywhere and avoids Newt-like logistical screw-ups; and 4) Soft-pedal New Hampshire and focus on South Carolina; the Mormon issue is not going away in the Deep South.
All in all, the night couldn’t have gone much better for Santorum, and the most important piece of it was Perry all but announcing his departure.
(Cross-posted, with permission of the author, from Politico’s Arena)
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