Rod Jetton

The Experts Weigh In With Their Electoral College Predictions

By Jonathan Miller, on Mon Nov 5, 2012 at 8:30 AM ET

(Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)

If you haven’t entered the First Quadrennial Recovering Politician Electoral College Contest, you’ve got until tomorrow, Tuesday at 6:00 AM EST. Here are the details for your chance to win 2 FREE lower-arena tickets to the defending national champion University of Kentucky Wildcat basketball team’s official home opener at Lexington’s Rupp Arena, versus Lafayette University, on Friday, November 16 at 7:00 PM. Remember, the first step is to become a member of the RP’s new Facebook page, Facebook.com/RecoveringPol, and provide your predictions in the post marked “Designated RP Electoral College Contest Post.” The award will be presented to the individual who most accurately predicts the final Electoral College vote, with tiebreakers of predicting the Senate and Housr partisan compositions after the election.

The 2008 Electoral College Map

As a service to all of you procrastinators out there, our experts — contributing RPs and friends of RP — have weighed in on their predictions. You can choose to go with one of their picks, or stick with your own and feel smarter than a recovering politician.

So here goes. Feel free to comment below, but remember according to the rules, only comments at the Designated RP Electoral College Contest Post at the RP Facebook page will be qualified for the grand prize.

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The RP: Obama 303, Romney 235. (Obama wins WI, NV, IA, NH, CO, VA and OH; Romney squeaks out the narrowest victory in FL); Senate: 50 Dems, 48 GOP, 2 Indy; House: 239 GOP, 196 Dems

Contributing RP Rod Jetton:

President- Romney 277 and Obama 261. Romney takes the true toss ups of NH, CO, IA and WI, while holding the safer states of FL, NC and VA. Obama keeps OH, MN, MI, NV and PA. The auto bailout keeps Obama with Ohio, but Ryan and the debates help Romney hold WI which Ohio is not required on their path to victory. PA will be close but O will hold on there. R wins popular vote 52-48. With unemployment at 7.9% and even worse, gas prices up over $3.50, it is amazing that any incumbent could even keep it close. When we add in how Obama seemed to have a bit of the Bush 42 attitude of not really wanting to mess with a re-election campaign plus the Libya debacle it is hard to see Obama winning. Romney is a solid steady campaigner that nobody loves, but he has a good resume and seems to be up to the job of fixing the economy.

Senate- D-52 and R-46. (I-2) The Republicans will pick up a few seats but the weak candidates will keep them from taking the majority. My state of Missouri is a good example of that. McCaskill was in bad shape and should have been defeated in 2012 but with all Akin’s messaging problems she is poised to survive.

House – R-237 and D- 198. There will not be a big change in the House and Romney’s debates and October surge will help Republicans down ticket in many of the battleground seats.

Jordan Stivers (Friend of RP): Obama 280, Romney 258; Senate: R-47, D – 51, I-2; House: R-237, D-198

Contributing RP John Y. Brown, III: Election Day will be followed by Wednesday….and, if all goes as planned, followed by Thursday. Short of cataclysmic fallout on Tuesday night, Thursday more than likely will be followed by Friday. And then we will probably see something resembling what we used to call “the weekend.”

Friend of RP Zac Byer (traveling with VP GOP nominee Paul Ryan): My head still says Romney tops out at 256, but after visiting 6 swing states in the last 56 hours, and my gut says otherwise: Romney: 277, Obama: 261; 51 D, 47 R, 2 I; 238 R, 197 D

Contributing RP Jeff Smith: Obama 277, Romney 261; Senate: R-48, D – 50+2I; House: R-240, D-195

Ron Granieri (Friend of RP): Obama: 280, Romney: 258; Senate: 51-49 Dems (with independents); House: 245-190 Reps

Contributing RP Nick Paleologos: Obama 275. Romney 263.

Steven Schulman (Friend of RP): Whatever Nate Silver says.

Contributing RP Jimmy Dahroug: Obama 275, Romney 263; Senate: Dems 51 GOP 47; 2 Indy; House: GOP 241 Dems 194

David Snyder (Friend of RP): Obama wins 290-248. Senate – 51 Democrats 47 Republicans, 2 Independents. House – 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats

Contributing RP Greg Harris: Obama: 332, Romney: 206 (Polls indicate presidential race is neck and neck among “likely” voters. Obama’s lead is greater among “registered” voters. These votes, under-represented in polling, will redound to Obama’s advantage in states like FL and CO.); Senate: R-44, D – 54, I – 2; House: R-232, D-203

Robert Kahne (Friend of RP): Obama: 332, Romney: 206. Senate: D:53 (inc 2 IND) R: 47. House: D: 205, Rep: 230

Contributing RP Jason Grill: Obama gets 294 and Romney 244; Senate – 52 D 46 R 2 I; House – 234 R 201 D.

And watch this for more of Jason’s analysis:

Rod Jetton: How Todd Akin Won

By Rod Jetton, on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 8:30 AM ET

All throughout 2012 Missouri’s U.S. Senate race was garnering significant attention because of its implications on the outcome of the majority, but after Congressman Akin’s offensive comment on rape he has became a talking point to all political commentators, a joke to average citizens around the water cooler, and a lightning rod of sensitivity to those who have suffered rape.

Many national political observers are asking, “How did this guy get elected in Missouri?” His rise from an unnoticed conservative backbencher in the minority Missouri state legislature to the Republican U.S. Senate nominee is not that complicated.

Akin is not that well liked by the establishment of the Missouri Republican Party and has never been respected by party leaders and other elected republicans. You probably expect all Republicans to say that after his comment, but as a former Republican leader who is now out of the party I can tell you Akin never did much to help other Republicans.

Sure, most politicians take care of themselves first, but usually they do something to play ball and help the “team,” but not Todd Akin. He never needed the help of the party to win any of his primaries, and they never respected him so he never lifted a finger to help anyone unless it helped advance his principles (something hardcore conservatives admire him for).

My point is not to bash Todd Akin, he is a patriotic American whose son’s serve in the military (U.S. Marines!) and I have no doubts about his genuine commitment to our country and its founding principles. He is a hardcore conservative and proved it when he was one of the few Republicans to vote against President Bush’s Medicare expansion for prescription drugs. He has a wonderful family that anyone would be proud of and he sticks with what he believes. He also avoids negative campaigning which attracts many of his supporters. I have always said, “If you want a conservative who will vote no on everything then Todd Akin is your man. He doesn’t get many reforms passed or change things but he can always be counted on to cut spending and vote no.”

Read the rest of…
Rod Jetton: How Todd Akin Won

Rod Jetton: Could Biden Hit Ryan Too Hard?

By Rod Jetton, on Tue Oct 9, 2012 at 1:30 PM ET

Biden will most likely be on the attack from the start.

I think his first attacks will sound good and score points, but his problem will be Ryan knows the facts better than Biden and his counterpunches will land and Joe won’t know what to do. That is when we will get the gaffe or crazy sound bite we are all expecting.

The only thing Biden has going for him is everyone thinks he will mess it up and the expectations for him are very low. This is Ryan’s first big debate so nobody knows what to expect from him but I bet we will get a heavy dose of gas prices, personal income and deficit talk. If Biden hits to hard it will be easy for Ryan to use some of his own comments against him.

(Cross-posted, with permission of the author, from Politico’s Arena)

RPs Jeff Smith & Rod Jetton on Akin’s GOP Donors

By RP Staff, on Mon Oct 8, 2012 at 3:30 PM ET

BuzzFeed Politics asked contributing RPs Jeff Smith and Rod Jetton –both who served with Todd Akin in the Missouri legislature whether GOP donors will ever follow their political leadership and support Akin’s bid for the U.S. Senate. Here were their responses:

Rod Jetton, a former Republican speaker of the House in Missouri who works now as a political analyst, said major donors have about a week left to reevaluate and contribute money to Akin if they want to make a difference in the race.

But, Jetton told BuzzFeed, donors will remain wary of investing in Akin who, as a candidate, has been inconsistent at best.

“I don’t know that they have the confidence that the last four weeks of the campaign will be any different from what the past six weeks have been, from a messaging standpoint,” Jetton said.

“Let’s be honest,” he added. “Whether they like Todd Akin or not — and they don’t — if it can put them to 50, it doesn’t matter: They’re going to have to spend the money. But these misstatements make them wonder if they should be spending money in one of the other contested races.”

“Your standard Romney bundler is not going to start bundling for Todd Akin,” said Jeff Smith, a professor at the New School and a former Democratic Missouri state senator. “That person would be embarrassed to bring Todd Akin to Manhattan.”

Because major Missouri donors have also stayed away, Smith told BuzzFeed, outside groups will be the ones who keep Akin afloat—or not, as the case may be.

“Obviously this is the seat of last resort, the one they don’t want to have to give to, but it keeps coming back,” Smith said. “If they can figure out any way to get the Senate back without spending money in Missouri, they’ll do it.”

Click here to read the full piece in Buzzfeed Politics.

Rod Jetton: Ryan is a Great Pick

By Rod Jetton, on Mon Aug 13, 2012 at 2:30 PM ET

I think it is a great pick. Republicans need to remind voters about all the economic, deficit and budget promises Team Obama made during the 2008 campaign and the 2009/10 recovery efforts.

These promises and efforts have fallen short. To Republicans and many other Americans, Obama promised a lot that he didn’t deliver on, and his recovery efforts broke many of the promises he made about the budget and deficits.

Republicans want to keep the campaign on the economy, deficits and our budget problems. Obama needs to keep it on Mitt Romney and how out of touch he is.

Ryan is a conservative, but his ability to lay out the numbers in a very factual way will cause the Democrats problems.

He will perfectly contrast with Joe Biden. I love Joe; he seems like a great guy who means well, but how did he ever become a senator and VP?

Let’s face it: This guy hasn’t seen the ball since kickoff.

I bet the Obama team is already shaking about the VP debate. Hopefully they can keep it on foreign policy and not the budget or economy.

Sure he is conservative, but he backs up exactly what Republicans want this campaign to be about- A president who understands the economy and jobs, along with a VP who knows the budget and government programs.

I’m sure the Democrats will want to make the campaign about their conservative views and how that will cut government programs and hurt people, but even that gets to the debate Republicans want.

I don’t know if they can win that debate, but it is worth having and it will be fun to watch.

Rod Jetton: Best Candidate Bio Ever

By Rod Jetton, on Fri Aug 3, 2012 at 1:30 PM ET

This bio was unbelievable: [Missouri Political Bug]

The RPs Debate Roger Clemens: Rod Jetton in the 5 Hole

By Rod Jetton, on Mon Jun 25, 2012 at 12:30 PM ET

[Click here for a link to the entire RP Debate on Roger Clemens]

Yes, Roger Clemens should be admitted and given an extra award for being dragged through the dirt!

It seems the government and our Congressional leaders should have more dangerous criminals to track down and go after.

I fear this all started because a few Congressional leaders wanted some headlines and signed baseballs from the superstars. I’m sure some serious steroid use was going on, and we know it is unhealthy for the players and should not be an example for the young kids, but surely we can let baseball police their own sport.

To me it was all a big waste of money and probably ruined many lives.

Rod Jetton: Mission Trip to Ecuador

By Rod Jetton, on Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 1:30 PM ET

Check out these pictures and the accompanying narrative to Rod’s recent mission trip to Ecaudor: [Click here]

The RPs Debate Romney Bullying: Rod Jetton Pitches

By Rod Jetton, on Tue May 15, 2012 at 11:45 AM ET

[Click here to follow the entire RP Debate]

I have read the RP debate with moderate interest for two reasons. First, I don’t care what Romney, Obama, or any other candidate did in high school or grade school. Let’s hope the world finds out less about all our lives in those years.

Secondly, this crazy story makes no sense. Look at Romney, listen to Romney and ask yourself if this guy could beat up or pick on anybody.

I have met Mr. Romney and even spent a small amount of time with him behind the spotlights. His friends would call him kind, gracious, well mannered, and curious. His enemies would call him a weak sissy who is afraid of his own shadow.

As a Marine I would not classify Mitt as a tough kick butt kind of person. I don’t think that is his style. That’s OK, we can’t all be John Wayne.

But seriously, does anyone think this guy ever picked on people? I could see him spreading gossip or something girly like that, but not to throw a punch or intimidate anyone.

I think they have the wrong Mitt Romney!

The RPs Debate the 2012 GOP VP: Rod Jetton Serves

By Rod Jetton, on Mon Mar 26, 2012 at 3:30 PM ET

Rod Jetton’s Response

[Click here to follow the full debate thread]

It’s been a busy weekend and I have enjoyed reading the comments but Grill [sic] is 100% right.

It’s Rubio for all the reasons Jason outlined.

He may refuse it, but I doubt it. Romney and “country” need, and he will accept.

If gas prices stay high, Obama will be in trouble. As I have mentioned in earlier posts, gas prices are the one issue that touches all demographics.

They also blame the Guy in charge.

In 2006 it was Bush but today its Obama.