By Jeff Smith, on Mon Jan 9, 2012 at 2:30 PM ET  Jeff Smith‘s First Response
[John Y.’s Provocation; The RP’s Rebuttal #1; Ron Granieri’s Rebuttal #2; Rod Jetton’s Rebuttal #3; Krystal Ball’s Rebuttal #4; John Y.’s First Defense; Rod Jetton’s Response #1; Jeff Smith’s Rebuttal #5; John Y.’s Second Defense; Ron Granieri’s Response #1; John Y.’s Third Defense; Artur Davis’ Rebuttal #6]
I think we should delineate between presidential elections and most other types — gubernatorial, House, Senate, etc. Presidential campaigns are exceptional. The candidates (especially in years like this when there are 38 debates) face a lot of scrutiny; they are inspected closely by the media, party activists, and to some extent rank-and-file voters (at least in the early states).
This, however, is not the case in most races. As long as candidates for House can raise $1-2M and candidates for US Senate or Governor can raise $5-10M, they can communicate effectively and thoroughly via TV ads. So I think that in those races the most important things are money, name ID, and surface likeability – as opposed to substantive ideas that can be put into action. This is because candidates with money are able to circumvent the press and the scrutiny of said ideas, and can saturate the airwaves with ads penned by others in which they mouth 30-60 seconds of reassuring bromides.
By Jeff Smith, on Mon Jan 9, 2012 at 12:00 PM ET Rebuttal #5: Jeff Smith
[John Y.’s Provocation; The RP’s Rebuttal #1; Ron Granieri’s Rebuttal #2; Rod Jetton’s Rebuttal #3; Krystal Ball’s Rebuttal #4; John Y.’s First Defense; Rod Jetton’s Response #1]
Love reading everyone’s posts…especially Rod’s, because unlike most of you, I can hear the accent and it makes me feel as if i’m back home in Missour-ah.
It’s really hard to top the insightful analysis you all provided. So I’ll just say this, at the risk of offending: Most campaigns can largely be reduced to sex appeal.
Oh sure, there are a few voters who read a candidate’s seven white papers, and the opponent’s seven white papers, and decide that they agree with Candidate A on four and Candidate B on three, and so they’re gonna vote for Candidate A.
But those voters are regrettably rare. The majority are like Rod’s harem and vote on appearance. This is why I find it so mystifying that the RP ever got elected dogcatcher. [ED’s Note: HEY?!?!]
Campaigns are largely about likeability and, implicitly, sexuality. I hired attractive, appealing college kids in part to lure other kids to volunteer. I flirted with women in senior centers. Did I hone my policy chops? Sure, but unfortunately, I probably winked at ten times more guys in the Pridefest parade than I gave policy answers to. Sorry, I’m 5’5″; I had to WORK it, baby.
Read the rest of…
The RPs Debate Presidential Leadership: Jeff Smith Rebuts
By Zack Adams, RP Staff, on Mon Jan 9, 2012 at 9:30 AM ET  Romney’s still the frontrunner, but it doesn’t feel nearly as good as a tie for first should’ve felt for him.
Santorum has a window here. As has always been the case, Romney is in deep trouble in a two- or three-way race, assuming one of the others is Paul and the third is a strong social conservative. Perry and Bachmann will drop out before New Hampshire, I think. Perry made sure that 2/3 to 3/4 of their votes don’t go to Romney or Paul; they go to Santorum or Newt. But since AngryNewt will be running a kamikazi mission to damage Romney, not many will go to him.
A couple other side notes: the Santorum working-class contrast vs. the Mitt/Bain “guy who laid you off” could be effective in the battle for votes in what is, at the rank-and-file level, a largely downscale party.
Finally, Huntsman’s mini-boomlet in New Hampshire combined with Paul’s continued strength could deny Romney the big New Hampshire that the press has already discounted.
 So, Santorum has a shot here. He needs to do a few things: 1) find the best online fundraising team in Republican politics and sign them up; 2) Convince a few national conservative leaders to step up this week and try to unite conservatives nationally around him which means coaxing Bachmann out if she won’t decide herself; 3) Make sure he gets on the ballot everywhere and avoids Newt-like logistical screw-ups; and 4) Soft-pedal New Hampshire and focus on South Carolina; the Mormon issue is not going away in the Deep South.
All in all, the night couldn’t have gone much better for Santorum, and the most important piece of it was Perry all but announcing his departure.
(Cross-posted, with permission of the author, from Politico’s Arena)
By Jeff Smith, on Thu Jan 5, 2012 at 11:30 AM ET
William Faulkner once wrote that in the South, the past isn’t dead — it isn’t even past.
His words seem eerily appropriate as two Southern Republican presidential candidates are confronted with the racial skeletons in their closets.
First it was Texas Gov. Rick Perry and “Niggerhead,” the alleged name of his family’s hunting camp. Now, it’s fellow Texan Ron Paul’s sundry offensive statements about blacks, arguing among other things that in the wake of the Los Angeles riots, “order was only restored when it came time for the blacks to collect their welfare checks,” and that “95 percent of black men in Washington are semi-criminal or entirely criminal.”
 As Perry and Paul probably know, the modern Republican Party has its rhetorical roots in George Wallace and Barry Goldwater’s states’ rights rhetoric from the 1960s. Wallace laid the foundation for a generation of Republican hegemony in presidential elections via deft manipulation of racial and cultural issues; Richard Nixon and his guru Kevin Phillips studied Wallace’s tactics closely. Nixon’s 1969-’72 strategy, which focused on appealing to the 10 million Wallace voters from ’68, heralded a partisan realignment that would shape American politics for the next half-century, as Phillips himself predicted in 1969’s “Emerging Republican Majority.”
So when Ronald Reagan went to Philadelphia, Miss., where three civil rights workers were brutally murdered in 1963, to kick off his 1980 general election bid and proclaimed that “the spirit of Jefferson Davis lives in this year’s Republican Party platform,” it was no accident. Rather, it was a rare statement of the Republican Party’s fundamental strategy since 1964.
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Jeff Smith: From Wallace to Paul to Perry
By RP Staff, on Wed Jan 4, 2012 at 9:15 AM ET
As the pundits and Wednesday morning quarterbacks assess the winners and losers of last night’s Iowa caucuses, one verdict is clear: Our savvy gang of RPs couldn’t shoot straight.
Reviewing their predictions from yesterday, click here for the infamous post, only RP staffer Zack Adams predicted the correct finish of the top 6 candidates, and former Alabama Congressman Artur Davis was the only recovering politician to predict the correct order of the top 3.
Most humiliated was The RP himself. Not only did he forecast a last-minute Ron Paul surge (30 points — come on?!?), but then, after the entrance polls “confirmed” his predictions, he bragged on Twitter and Facebook about how he was whipping fellow RPs Jeff Smith and John Y. Brown, III. We imagine that the RP has crawled back into his spider hole awaiting redemption in New Hampshire.
At least recovering politicians can laugh at themselves. Here’s John Y.’s thoughts from last night when it looked like the RP and Jeff Smith had bested him:
 Post Iowa Primary Prediction: Although it’s still too early to know how things will shake out tonight….it appears Jonathan Miller and Jeff Smith and a passel of others from the RP blog, will do a better job predicting tonight’s outcome than I did.
So, I need to come back in a big way tomorrow—and I will!!
My big prediction? Newt Gingrich will go long and score big –again—with the one Secret… Weapon he has mastered so well—the florid and grandiose press release.
I predict Newt will provide a “shock and awe” release tomorrow morning that taps into something in millions of American voters who know deep down that any candidate who can use words like “literati” and “minions” in a campaign press release is a man who can and probably should be president.
And maybe, just maybe, history and Providence will ensure that “Out of the billowing smoke and dust of tweets and trivia emerged Gingrich.”
By RP Staff, on Tue Jan 3, 2012 at 5:00 PM ET After two years of campaign, hundreds of pundit prognostications, and thousands of cable news sound bites, at long last, what you’ve been waiting for…
Our fearless contributors — Contributing RPs, Friends of RP and RP Staff — offer their predictions for tonight’s Iowa caucuses.
And you can too — please give us your predictions in the Comments section below.
Without further ado…(Click on their name to find out their background)…
The RP: Paul 30%; Romney 25%; Santorum 21%; Gingrich 7%; Perry 6%; Bachmann 4%, Huntsman 1%. I don’t think Rick “Man On Dog” Santorum’s organization is strong enough to take advantage of his surge. I also think Paul’s support is underestimated in the polls because his grassroots support is so fervant, and the tin foil hat crowd among his followers are fearful of pollsters. Remember Pat Robertson?
Michael Steele: Click here for his exclusive-to-The-RP report from Iowa.
Jeff Smith: Santorum 27; Romney 23; Paul 23; Perry 11; Gingrich 9; Bachmann 6. I think some Bachmann/Gingrich/Perry folks walk in to their caucus, see how outnumbered they are by Sant-mentum, and get on the bandwagon.
Jason Grill: Romney, Paul, and Santorum will finish first, second, and third. The order though is more “up in the air” than George Clooney was in his recent Oscar nominated movie. Organization and friends twisting other friends arms at the caucuses will decide the order of the top three. If Romney finishes third that WILL be news and change the race somewhat moving forward. He will be seen as an even weaker front runner if this happens. Also, it will be interesting to see where Perry and Gingrich finish tonight. Keep a lookout for their percentages at the end of the night. A fourth place finish for Perry over Gingrich will signal a potential showdown with Romney in South Carolina. Lastly, I am anxious to see how Huntsman finishes in next week’s New Hampshire primary after skipping Iowa.
Mark Nickolas: Paul (25%); Romney (23%); Santorum (22%); Gingrich (11%); Perry (10%); Bachmann (6%). Iowa requires a level of commitment from supporters unlike anywhere else. Those with the best state organization and strongest levels of commitment do especially well (Paul and Paul). Also, since Independents and Dems can participate if they want to cross over — as Indies did for Obama in ’08 — that’s likely to help Paul the most. Nefarious (aka loyal) Dems are going to support anyone but Romney to ensure a protracted GOP race, with Paul and Santorum benefitting most.
Rod Jetton: I think Ron Paul will just nip Romney and Rick Santorum will get third. Newt probably finishes in 4th. The Ron Paul forces are dedicated and with his numbers going up they and their friends have started believing he can win. They will turn out and surprise all the experts.
Greg Harris: Santorum – 26%; Romney – 25%; Paul – 21%; Gingrich – 12%; Bachman – 8%; Perry – 7%; Huntsman – 1%. Santorum’s diligent grassroots work throughout the State this past year will pay off, resulting in more ardent caucus warriors advocating his case, and moving some on-the-fence Bachman and Perry supporters. Ron Paul’s fanatical base will still assure him over an over 20% showing. The minority moderate voters will hold their noses and back Romney.
Read the rest of…
Our Contributors Predict the Iowa Caucuses…
By Jonathan Miller, on Sun Jan 1, 2012 at 12:00 PM ET Happy New Year!
I hope 2012 brings you joy, laughter, love, happiness, and many pints of tasty hummus. Here at The Recovering Politician, we plan some exciting new features that we will share with you in the weeks ahead.
For now, as you rest and recover from your New Year’s Eve celebration — and recharge your batteries for a busy January — I wanted to share with you some good reading material.
The first nine months at The Recovering Politician have seen more than 1200 posts from over three dozen contributors. I share my favorites below; please let me know what I missed in the comments section:
 We’ll start with Me because, well…uh…I paid for that microphone. I started the site by explaining Why March Madness Matters and ended the year arguing that Adam Sandler Saved the Jews. In between, I made The Liberal Case for Israel, I outlined Debt Ceilings and Credit Downgrade for Dummies, and shared my Top Five lists for about everything. (My favorite – Jew-ish Gentiles in Pop Culture). All and all, I can’t thank you enough for indulging my part-time, unpaid writing career.
 Our most popular writer, hands down, has been contributing RP and former Missouri State Senator Jeff Smith. Jeff’s first piece — the story of his rise into national celebrity, his dramatic fall that resulted in a prison term, and his hopes for redemption — put the RP on the national map, earning recognition from New York magazine’s “Approval Matrix.” Jeff’s followup — about love and sex behind bars — drew in nearly 100,000 readers, literally crashing the Web site. Jeff’s become a national sensation — expect much more from him in 2012.
 Contributing RP Michael Steele was already a national sensation before he joined the site — you know him as the former Lt. Governor of Maryland, as well as the Chairman of the Republican National Committee. Now a regular contributor to MSNBC, Michael shared with RP readers his vision of the new American Dream, and assessed both President Barack Obama and Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. Over the next few days, Michael will report from the Iowa caucuses; and in the year ahead, he will share his lively take on politics — and other subjects as well.
 Another familiar face at the site in 2011 was another former Lt. Governor of Maryland, contributing RP Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. Kathleen elucidated her well-versed take on faith and politics, while slamming a then-ascendant Rick Perry for misusing faith, defended Sarah Palin(!), and shared her unique perspective as a member of the nation’s most iconic political family. Her most popular piece was on, of all things, home births. Expect the same kind of wide variety from Kathleen at The RP in the coming months.
 One of the RP’s most prolific contributing RPs was former Alabama Congressman Artur Davis. Artur wrote a fascinating, insightful piece about political authenticity, plunged into the centuries-old debate on race and politics, and explored the Democratic Party’s faith gap. Some of his most popular pieces were book reviews, taking on new works about Harry Truman and Bobby Kennedy. Artur’s not been shy about controversy, angering conservatives by attacking his home state’s “ugly” immigration law, and riling liberals by supporting its new Voter ID law. Don’t expect Artur to pull any punches in 2012.
 Contributing RP and former Missouri state House Speaker Rod Jetton is also one who is not a stranger to controversy. At the peak of his power, Rod was charged with ethics and criminal violations, and while he was cleared of everything, he stepped down to begin his second act. Rod’s 3-part series about his “Success, Scandal and Change” was one of the site’s most widely read, and he concluded the year with a touching 4-part series on his best friend, a fallen Marine. In the middle, he showed off a wry sense of humor in a video interview with his unlikely pal, contributing RP Jeff Smith (you have to see Rod’s imitation of Jeff).
 Jason Atkinson, an Oregon State Senator and contributing RP, underwent a different kind of political recovery — he had to withdraw from a promising gubernatorial campaign after he accidentally shot himself while hunting. He writes about the experience — with graphic charts — in “A Real Political Recovery,” but also created an Internet sensation with short films he directed on more successful outdoor adventures fishing for trout in “Big Mo” and “Half Pounder.” He also showed off his own wicked sense of humor, imitating Abe Lincoln and citing the wisdom of Homer…Simpson that is.
 Our newest contributing RP, former Virginia Congressional Democratic nominee Krystal Ball, has already generated considerable reader interest with her first piece about Why We Need More Women in Politics. Krystal should know; her first campaign for office was interrupted by a ridiculous media inquiry into pictures taken of her in college; PG-13 pictures that caused a mini-national-sensation only because of Krystal’s gender. As a regular contributor to MSNBC and here at The RP, Krystal will help us view politics in a much different way.
 Finally, I feel very fortunate — and so is the RP Nation — to have convinced my good friend, contributing RP, and former Kentucky Secretary of State, John Y. Brown, III to share his incisive social and political commentary, along with his uproarious sense of humor, at The RP. John Y. helped set the theme and tone of the site with his early piece, “What Do We Do Now?,” in which he offered a 20-question quiz to help readers determine if they were in need of political recovery. More recently, we’ve launched a regular feature, John Y.’s Musings from the Middle, in which he shares his wit and wisdom on topics varying from fruitcake to the death penalty to Lindsay Lohan. We guarantee a lot of laughs, as well as thoughtful advice, in the year ahead.
Thanks for joining us in 2011. Stay tuned for a wild and wonderful 2012.
By Jeff Smith, on Tue Dec 27, 2011 at 8:30 AM ET
 Missouri Congressman Russ Carnahan has led a charmed political life. After losing a congressional race in rural Southeast Missouri in 1990, Carnahan moved to St. Louis and ran for the state House in 2000, when his father was a popular two-term governor. He ran against a political neophyte and prevailed by 64 votes. In 2004, he ran in a 10-way primary for ex-House Leader Dick Gephardt’s seat and won by 1.6%. (Disclosure: I finished second, and six years later went to federal prison after lying to the government during an FEC investigation stemming from a Carnahan complaint.) In 2010, in a district Obama carried by 20 points, he edged Tea Party favorite Ed Martin 49-47. None of those election results was determined until the wee hours of the morning.
But in 2011, Congressman Carnahan’s luck ran out.
 Congressman Russ Carnahan After Missouri lost a congressional seat, the Legislature eliminated his district and split it into four other districts, one represented by black Democrat Lacy Clay and the others by Republicans. Clay did not discourage the Legislature from passing the map. Unlike Carnahan, he built relationships with state Republican leaders, engaging them throughout the process. When the map reached the state Senate, which experiences frequent filibusters that are rarely ended via cloture (fewer than ten times in 50 years), the Republican leadership braced for an all-night filibuster by Senate Democrats. But none spoke; the bill passed immediately.
Read the rest of…
Jeff Smith: Some Unsolicited Advice for Cong. Carnahan
By Jeff Smith, on Mon Dec 19, 2011 at 8:30 AM ET Unfortunately for Democrats, when you take into account money, organization, and candidate discipline in addition to polling, Romney was really never not the frontrunner.
 But don’t be fooled by Romney’s above-the-fray tack last night. For the next three weeks, Romney will be savaging Gingrich (and anyone else who is rapidly rising in his campaign’s internal polling) on TV, radio, and in the mailbox.
The name of the game for Romney will be to project as positively as possible in his own appearances while, underneath the seemingly placid surface, his ad campaign and his surrogates will be as nasty as necessary until he regains his lead in national polls.
(Cross-posted, with permission of the author, from Politico’s Arena)
By Zack Adams, RP Staff, on Mon Dec 12, 2011 at 12:00 PM ET Mitt is like the perfectly-behaved boy with straight As who’s taken the cheerleader on dates every weekend for a year and can’t close the deal, and now the roguish drop-out has swooped in and gained traction despite the urgings of the cheerleader’s parents (i.e., the Republican establishment) to beware.
How can she not realize what a huge mistake she’s making?? This guy is a total dead-ender! I just got admitted to Harvard, and this guy’s got no future….It’s plain as day! How can she not see it?
Mitt has spent the last few weeks trying unsuccessfully to conspire with her parents and it’s backfired – because the more a 17-year-old girl’s parents like a guy, the less she will. Just like tea partiers and the Republican establishment.
With the president’s approval ratings in the low 40s, these voters are feeling their oats. They want to take a walk on the wild side! 
So now young Mitt, usually so cool and collected, is getting desperate. This ad is his most direct attempt yet to show the cheerleader the error of her ways. And I suspect that Republican voters, like the cheerleader, aren’t going to listen to reason. They’re going to have to learn this lesson for themselves.
(Cross-posted, with author’s permission, from Politico’s Arena)
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The Award-Winning Documentary about Jeff’s Early Career (2006):
The Recent New Republic Article About Jeff (2011):
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