By Lauren Mayer, on Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 3:00 PM ET
The two parties seem even farther apart these days, between the fiscal cliff negotiations falling apart and all the other standard political standoffs. But the sort-of-good news is that there’s finally an issue on which there is some bipartisan agreement. Once the NRA came out with its ludicrous ‘solution’ to school shootings, there were several moderate Republicans joining in the call for the type of things that even most NRA members agree on (more effective background checks, enforcing current laws, banning high-capacity ammo clips and assult-style weapons). Of course, the NRA has subsequently refused even to discuss anything relating to guns – but I am heartened by the number of politicians on both sides who are standing up to the gun lobby and saying, whoah, hold on, banning terrorist watch-list suspects from buying a gun is not an assult on your 2nd Ammendment rights (and that’s presuming the founding fathers meant not just muskets, but semi-automatic assult rifles?)
So I’m heartened by the beginning signs of bipartisanship – even though it may be more like becoming friends with that co-worker you’re not crazy about, but you’re united in your mutual loathing of the boss. Still, it’s a start. However, I’m also terrified at the prospect of a society in which we need armed guards in every classroom. (Of course, I’m a wimp – I can’t even watch mildly scary movies) So here’s a song imagining how we’d explain this to our kids . . . )
By John Y. Brown III, on Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 12:00 PM ET
Metric for the perfect mate
Analytics is all the rage in business and government. The hot new tool of the year—decade maybe—to help organizations make better data-driven decisions.
The movie Moneyball brilliantly depicted the powers of knowing and playing the numbers to get the results you want in more than just business and budgets. You can even use analytics to create a championship level pro baseball team –on the cheap.
So, why not use analytics on a more personal level by individuals seeking “better data-driven decisions”? And why not something more important and personal to you than budget forecasting or sports pastimes. How about an algorithm for finding the ideal mate? Or just a tolerable one? I think it’s doable.
Of course, you say, eHarmony and other dating websites already use these tools to match people for dating. Yes, they surely do. But that’s dating. And it’s a business. If eHarmony only offered a one shot algorithm telling you that you should or should not marry someone, there would be nothing much to advertise because it’s a one-shot business model. Instead, eHarmony wisely held out expertise for the dating marketplace which provides endless opportunities for selling, buying, re-selling and re-buying .
Dating involves behavior that economists refer to as “elastic” (subject to changing over time, even if only temporarily) as opposed to marriage, which involves behavior that is “inelastic” (only subject to changing in the imagination of one’s spouse). And besides, dating has far too many variables to derive a truly reliable forecast of dating success because much less is on the line. For example, where dating only is involved, literally thousands of faux pas are grounds to refuse a next date….but that same activity if applied in a marriage context would merely become “this week’s topic” in counseling or a cute story to tell at a cocktail party (twice but not that third time when you embellish) or simply viewed as an opportunity to catch up on some reading by sleeping all week on the couch downstairs.
So, what would such an algorithm look like? I can’t say what one for the ideal female partner should look like. I’m not a woman and am not comfortable guessing. I only know it will be far more complex and require a mind capable of revising relativity theory to complete, whereas for the male model, merely having a high school familiarity with algebra is adequate to the task.
I’ll let one of the truly brilliant and accomplished analytics organizations in education, business or public policy (or dating or baseball) take on the task.
My only request is a simple one that will be eagerly provided. If such a formula is ever developed that I’m given credit for promoting the idea. How do I know this credit will be eagerly provided to me? C’mon, it doesn’t take a high school algebra level understanding of analytics to know such a formula would never really work. And that whoever claims otherwise will immediately be looking for someone else to blame for coming up with the foolhardy idea. That’s just common sense.
(See pic below of male professor explaining the overwhelming empirical evidence that the female graduate student should date him if she wants to be truly happy. Who said analytics types don’t have street smarts too.)
Postscript: They have now been married 6 years but the former grad student (now Phd) has since revised the formula to eliminate errors and “kinks” in assumptions in the original formula. I’m joking. I think)
By John Y. Brown III, on Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 10:00 AM ET
#TeamJYB3:
My New Year’s New Dietary Math Resolution.
Or what dieters can learn from economists
“Constant dollars” is terms describing income after adjustment for inflation, as opposed to “Actual dollars.”
Inflation (monetarily speaking) is about 2-3% a year. Weight increase follows a similar metric throughout life.
So, for example, if someone weighs, say, 190 pounds and gains, say, 4 pounds for the year….when adjusted for weight inflation, there is no “net” weight gain.
In terms of “real pounds” Sure, there may be some additional “actual pounds” but those have to be accounted for properly and haven’t been by most dieticians in the past—who obviously lack an understanding of econometrics.
So, for example, this year, I actually lost one pound (when adjusting for inflation). I’m not commenting on “actual pounds” because they are no longer relevant to a more realistic and obviously much more sophisticated understanding of human weight measurement.
====
After spending the first three weeks of my diet traveling and celebrating the holidays, I got ready to weigh myself.
Stepped on the scales.
And decided that “It could be worse” should actually be result that should register on my scales .
By John Y. Brown III, on Wed Dec 26, 2012 at 8:30 AM ET
Twas the Night after Christmas
Twas the night after Christmas, when all through the house
Not a creature was stirring, except a small mouse.
The stockings were strewn across the floor like nobody cared,
In hopes more money would be found insider there.
The children were nestled all snug in their beds,
While hip hop on new head phones danced in their heads.
And mamma and I, both feeling like crap,
Had tried for a night’s sleep but got no more than a nap
When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter,
I sprang from my office chair to see what was the matter.
Away to the window I stumbled and then crashed,
But pulled myself up by the shutters and threw open the sash.
It wasn’t the moon’s shiny cast on gleaming white snow
But the local garbage truck, grinding it’s gears low and slow
It was a wonder to tired eyes when what should appear
But Santa’s magic clean up crew—instead of elves and reindeer
With a little old driver, so lively and quick,
I knew in a moment it must be our garbage man, Rick.
More rapid than eagles his coursers they came,
And he whistled, and shouted, and called the refuse angry names!
Darned boxes, darned paper, darned instructions and spoiled food
To the top of the porch! To the top of the wall!
Now trash away! Trash away! Trash away all!”
As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly,
When they meet with a hydraulic waste collector, mount to the sky.
So up to the house-top the wrapping papers they flew,
With the truck full of excesses from St Nicholas’ crew.
And then, in a twinkling, I heard from my perch
The pulling and grunting of the garbage truck’s helpers.
As I drew in my head, and was turning around,
I thought to myself, what a difference a day makes. In fact it’s profound
I love Santa, his reindeer and am thankful for the gadgets and bling
But this morning, Rick and his helpers seemed like God’s greatest Christmas blessing.
Read the rest of… John Y. Brown, III: The Night After Christmas
By John Y. Brown III, on Tue Dec 25, 2012 at 12:00 PM ET
I wish everyone a Merry Mediocre Christmas.
Why?
Well, about 20 years ago I noticed that few people we truly enjoying the Christmas holiday season because so many were stressed out and anxious trying to achieve some sort of “perfect” or “idealized” or “amazing” Christmas holiday. And I felt bad pouring fuel on the fire by wishing them a merry Christmas on top of all that burdensome pressure. So I started withing people a “Mediocre Christmas.” And I think it takes the pressure off…a little. And we need that more than we probably think.
It’s not about how “fabulous” the presents are this holiday season. But about how fabulously present you can be to those most important. And sometimes a step back and a deep breath and a reminder that mediocre and present is better than fabulous and stressed out.
Now, if you think you can handle an unadulterated Merry Christmas, more power to you. Go for it. But otherwise, just know it’s not necessary and I don’t want my overly optimistic wishes to be an obstacle to you having a nice time with those closest to you this holiday season.
It ain’t about how many loved ones we can impress …but more about how many loved ones we can allow to impress us–without asking them to try all that hard to do so.
====
The benefits on the night before Christmas of having older children.
This is something that I did on the night before Christmas 7-8 years ago. That I will not be doing tonight. Thankfully. ; )
A True Christmas Story.
Twas the night before Christmas and all through the Brown house, not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse. The stockings were hung by the chimney with care in hopes that St Nick….well, you get the idea.
Anyway, it was a few years ago when my children were still Santa age (before Christmas became more of a business transaction) and my job was to work the wee hours of the morning to assemble a mini pool table for our basement and surprise our children Christmas morning.
I started around 1am. By 3am I was almost finished but realized I had assembled one of the short ends of the table upside down. So, I took it all apart and started over.
By 4:30am I was nearly finished again before realizing I had inadvertently assembled one of the long ends of the table upside down. I took a short break to say as many curse words under my breath as I could recall at that time of morning and got back to work a little before 5am.
I took apart the table again and decided to get out the directions this time. I followed them, but like following all directions, it slowed me down (although admittedly I didn’t make any mistakes this last time). No mistakes….but I did run out of time.
It was now nearly 7am and I heard feet pattering upstairs and cries of “Dad, where are you?” The kiddos were ready to see what Santa had left them….and weren’t going to give me another 30-45 minutes to finish up. Fortunately, I quickly thought of a brilliant solution.
A note. From Santa. Here’s how it read.
Dear Johnny and Maggie, Merry Christmas!! I love you both so much and hope you like all the presents I left you, including the miniature pool table. As you know, I have to cover a lot of ground tonight and in my old age don’t move as fast as I used to. I almost got the pool table set up, but had to leave before finishing to get to all the other children in the world. I left the last few pieces for your father to finish for you.Thanks for the cookies and milk.
Merry Christmas!!!S.C.
(My kids were excited but also skeptical and disappointed. My daughter suspected my handwriting. And my son knew if it depended on me putting something together, it might take all night).
By John Y. Brown III, on Mon Dec 24, 2012 at 12:00 PM ET
Context is the thing.
“Life is so much better in proper context. Fairer, funner, more Gracious. Just better all round.”
A quick comment I just made to a friend but like a lot because so many of our daily issues aren’t so much problems but misunderstood situations because we view them out of context–where we are the victim, the one getting the short end of the stick, the injured one, the one singled out, the worst ever luck, and so and so on and on.
Fact is next time you feel this way and say to yourself, “Why me?” The answer is probably, “Why not you?”
I mean, ever heard of sharing?
I joke…but think of it that way. Everybody has to take there turn in the barrel, as a friend of mine likes to say. I’m not sure where that saying comes from, but I like it a lot. Heck, lean to enjoy rolling around in a barrel if that’s the case. Or just sit still until it safe to come out.
The point something I said to a friend years ago who was listing their bad luck litany to me. I said, “Sadly, the most unfair thing in life is that we usually get about what we deserve.”
I don’t think my friend understood what I was trying to say. But it was to step back a little. See our life in context.
It’s probably not going as bad as we think…and there’s a lot of good stuff we are missing out on because we are hyper-focused on the tiny bubble of paint dried in the corner of the door that we don’t see the gorgeous paint job most see when they walk up to the door.
And that–even worse–we are failing to walk through the door we are standing in front of.
The RP was back this week in his semi-regular gig on Wall Street Journal Radio’s “Daily Wrap with Michael Cassner.” He and Cassner discusse the fiscal cliff and the impact No Labels proposals can have on the discussion. He compared the talks to a dysfunctional family Christmas. You can listen to the entire interview by clicking here.
By John Y. Brown III, on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 1:30 PM ET
#TeamJYB3:
Diary entry for Day (not sure but a lot…about two weeks) in my decision to lose 15 pounds (or at least 10)
THE DECISION
I’m doing better with my diet and even starting to exercise. In fact, lifted weights a few minutes each of the last several days.
I enjoy lifting weights. It’s intense and painful and over quickly. Other forms of exercise take too long. I saw one guy rolling around on a giant ball for about 15 minutes in the gym. I never knew what exactly was the point. If he was working out some body part or just trying to see if he could roll himself around on a giant ball from one corner to the other. Or perhaps it was some form of a parole sentence involving public humiliation for a crime he’d committed.
Regardless, I like weight lifting. Not heavy weights, mind you. Those really are a pain to lift in any form or fashion. But the polite and nonthreatening level weights. Bigger than the dainty silver ones but smaller than the large industrial sized ones.
I even got pumped up a little. You know, that’s bodybuilder talk for when blood is pumping through muscles during a workout. It felt good and I like the endorphin kick. But what if really got into this weight lifting and bodybuilding thing. After my 3rd 5 minute weight workout, I looked online at bodybuilding competitions for men 50 and over. Of course, it’s only been 3 workouts and I’m nowhere near the point of anyone taking me seriously as a competitive bodybuilder. But the fact I worked out three days in a row worried me and forced me to make a bold decision today.
No matter how fit I get, I WILL NOT become a competitive bodybuilder in the Men over 50 category.
It was a decision that had to be made –and quickly. Slippery slopes happen in every area of life. And I could see this was going to be a dilemma at some point for me and I wanted to resolve it now.
I worked the bag (punching bag) a little the past two days and enjoyed that too. And, yes, if you are wondering….I’ve also decided that I will not become a competitive boxer in the Men over 50 category.
I’m just trying to keep things simple. And lose 15 pounds (or at least 10).
I’m not ruling out competing in the over 60 category. I’ll cross that bridge when I come to it.
By John Y. Brown III, on Fri Dec 21, 2012 at 12:00 PM ET
Anticlimactic Apocalypses
What will you be doing to celebrate the Apolcolypse this Friday?
I wish I could get pumped up for it but, it’s a lot like Halloween this past year, my hearts just not in it.
It was my 49th Halloween and I know the routine and have seen it all and knew there were not real surprises. Nothing new or fresh to keep my interest. So I just took it easy and picked out some candy for our house that I wanted to eat and treated Halloween 2012 just like any other day.
And today’s Apocalypse (I think this is the Mayan variety) will be much the same way. According to Wikipedia Friday will be Apocalypse 59 for me during my lifetime. If you can imagine being bored with Halloween after just 48 of them; try to imagine how checked out I’ll be for today’s Apocalypse?
And add to it that Apocalypses don’t even have candy or gifts or after school specials. They are just cataclysmic disasters that don’t happen.
Like going to the doctor to get tested every few years for leprosy.
Sure, I guess there is a sense of exhilaration hearing the news that you tested negative, but did you ever really think you had leprosy? Or that the Mayans were somehow that much better at predicting the future than the dozens of psychics before them that totally botched predicting an Apocalypse?
I won’t waste the day but I’m not celebrating either. I’m not even sure I want the t-shirt this time.
And a word to clairvoyants and psychics everywhere. I know that predicting the end of the world occurring on a date certain can get a fellow psychic a lot of street cred within your profession. But c’mon. Every year a new prediction? It’s getting to be worse that The Boy Who Cried Wolf. And these are grown men and women crying apocalypse. All the fun has been taken out of it. Look it’ if you are going to predict Armageddon, make darn sure you you either come correct, or don’t come at all.
At this rate, Apocalypses are about as exciting as a lunar eclipse. That hasn’t happened 58 times in a row.
Q: How do I prevent this total douche bag I hate, who I worked with on a campaign, from getting a sweet political appointment?
—I.H., Washington, D.C.
First, I will try to answer your question. Years ago there was a guy in Missouri who was the leading candidate to run the state Democratic Party. He was an unadulterated piece of sh–. Consequently, along with a few others who had worked with him, I decided to sh–can him. But then I realized that the powerful Carnahan family, who disliked me after my campaign against family scion Russ, would influence the selection. So I “let slip” to a close ally of the Carnahans that I strongly supported the candidate, because I suspected he’d go back and tell the Carnahans that the candidate was a “Jeff Smith guy.” A week later we found out that the guy’s candidacy had been scuttled.
And second, I will quote Nelson Mandela, who said, “Resentment is like drinking poison and then hoping that it kills your enemies.” In other words, let it go. If he’s really that big of a douche bag, people will soon catch on. Since it’s Washington, I guess that means he’ll soon be someone’s chief of staff.
Q: I’ve worked in politics for about five years. And I’m doing fine—progressively more responsibility in each position, yada yada—but given that I have a law degree, I haven’t really gotten where I want to be. I want to work on a ’16 presidential campaign in a senior position. What would you suggest I do in the next two years to help make that happen?
—C.J., Washington, D.C.
Two-part answer here. The first is simple: Raise money, and raise it big and early. Few do it, and if you’re young and do it well, you can write your ticket. It’s the best way to stand out and distinguish yourself early in the party and to the campaign. If your candidate loses in the primary, you’re sought after by the nominee, which can’t be said of most campaign staff. They’re usually left out in the cold.
The second is a different approach: Learn how to do something important that only a few people in politics understand. Two possible areas come to mind where candidates are going to want people with cutting-edge expertise. The first is hardcore quantitative analysis similar to that which powered the Obama re-election campaign. The second is knowledge about state delegate laws, which helped Obama make a series of savvy (and rather counterintuitive) targeting decisions in 2008, allocating resources to small states, some of which held caucuses which advantaged Obama’s zealous supporters. Since the media is currently focused on the former area, I’d probably choose the latter, and get to work memorizing the complex patchwork of state delegate selection laws.
Read the rest of… Jeff Smith: Do As I Say — A Political Advice Column
Of course, you say, eHarmony and other dating websites already use these tools to match people for dating. Yes, they surely do. But that’s dating. And it’s a business. If eHarmony only offered a one shot algorithm telling you that you should or should not marry someone, there would be nothing much to advertise because it’s a one-shot business model. Instead, eHarmony wisely held out expertise for the dating marketplace which provides endless opportunities for selling, buying, re-selling and re-buying .
So, for example, this year, I actually lost one pound (when adjusting for inflation). I’m not commenting on “actual pounds” because they are no longer relevant to a more realistic and obviously much more sophisticated understanding of human weight measurement.
Anyway, it was a few years ago when my children were still Santa age (before Christmas became more of a business transaction) and my job was to work the wee hours of the morning to assemble a mini pool table for our basement and surprise our children Christmas morning.
The RP was back this week in his semi-regular gig on Wall Street Journal Radio’s “Daily Wrap with Michael Cassner.” He and Cassner discusse the fiscal cliff and the impact No Labels proposals can have on the discussion. He compared the talks to a dysfunctional family Christmas. You can listen to the entire interview
Regardless, I like weight lifting. Not heavy weights, mind you. Those really are a pain to lift in any form or fashion. But the polite and nonthreatening level weights. Bigger than the dainty silver ones but smaller than the large industrial sized ones.
Q: I’ve worked in politics for about five years. And I’m doing fine—progressively more responsibility in each position, yada yada—but given that I have a law degree, I haven’t really gotten where I want to be. I want to work on a ’16 presidential campaign in a senior position. What would you suggest I do in the next two years to help make that happen?
