By Artur Davis, on Fri Nov 9, 2012 at 1:30 PM ET  When all was said and done, this election did turn out to be 2004 again. A polarizing president with tepid approval ratings fended off a Massachusetts based challenger who proved surprisingly resilient, but whose tactical errors and vulnerabilities put an unbreakable ceiling on his appeal. The victory itself was a weirdly shaped bubble made partly of scaring up a base vote with ad hominem attacks on the persona and character of the opponent, and partly of one time, single issue alliances that lifted the beleaguered incumbent without gaining much for his ballot mates in his own party: In George W. Bush’s case, a same sex marriage ban that doubled the normal black Republican vote in Ohio, in Barack Obama’s, an adept use of Mitt Romney’s opposition to the automobile industry bailout to bolster Democratic white working class support in Ohio.
But winning in uninspiring form counts just as much as the grand sweeps like 1980 and 2008. The Republican Party’s defeat unmasks deep liabilities beyond the expected demographic shortcomings with Latinos and voters under 29 (who against all expectations, maintained their slice of the electorate at 2008 levels in the midst of an appalling job market for new college graduates). The electorate rejected Romney even in the face of exit polls showing that voters trusted Romney to handle the economy better than Obama; that they overwhelmingly viewed the economy as poor or mediocre; that they favored repeal of Obama’s signature healthcare initiative; and that they rejected Obama’s strategy of deficit reduction through tax increases.
The conservative base is smaller than it has been in three decades, with its share falling to 35% while liberals edged up to 24%, a narrowing advantage further diminished by the fact that about a fifth of that conservative base consists of blacks and Latinos who still overwhelmingly voted for Obama. The Republican conservative base seems perilously close to shrinking to white southern evangelicals, senior white males, and upper income Protestants.
 That Obama more or less maintained the 2008 foundation of his victory, with the exception of North Carolina and Indiana, is especially striking given the weak-kneed nature of the Obama recovery and the fact that close to half the country now views the president, a figure once ascribed near mythical powers, in an unfavorable vein. One unavoidable conclusion is that the country’s skepticism toward the last four years was outweighed by a marginally wider distrust of what Republican rule would look like. Another is that the electorate’s affinity for individual elements of the Republican agenda never coalesced into their approval of a broader GOP governing vision.
Hence the seemingly conflicted choice to pair Obama with a Republican House that surrendered few members of its majority beyond districts with a history of Democratic strength. Keeping the House red preserves the check on the unpopular aspects of Obama’s rule, while electing Romney would have meant sanctioning a policy course that remained nebulous or disconcerting to many swing voters and moderates.
To be sure, a better crafted campaign would have filled in Romney’s policy goals more convincingly than the ritualistic invocation of five point plans and generic references to cutting regulation and producing more domestic energy. But that failure is not just a marketing flaw on the part of Romney’s ad men: it is a symptom of a modern conservatism that seems spent and resistant to innovation on some days, purely oppositional and reactive on other days. And the weightiest part of the recent conservative agenda, Paul Ryan’s budget plan, was barely mentioned and its details only intermittently defended. (The details of Ryan’s budget had their share of political pitfalls, but the scant attention to it by the Romney campaign surely contributed to the impression that the Republican wish list was being kept deliberately shadowy.)
The other risk for Republicans, as Fox News’ Britt Hume noted last night, is that the axis of gravity is shifting leftward, and that a center right electorate is more predisposed than ever to a view that equates conventional conservatism with a middle aged backwardness. The hardening of the Democratic edge in affluent Northern Virginia, the white professional female gender gap, and the historically poor Republican showing with Hispanics can all be linked to a value judgment about the insularity of the Republican coalition. It is not hard to imagine that Democrats will exploit their growing cultural edge by pushing harder on issues that seemed marginal a cycle ago, like a fifty state right of same sex marriage, or more aggressive regulation of faith based institutions.
Read the rest of…
Artur Davis: The Republican Dilemma
By John Y. Brown III, on Fri Nov 9, 2012 at 12:00 PM ET
 Ultimate Friday questions …..of life, the universe and everything.
Most are never solved.
A few–from time to time–can be approximated. We get a handle on them. But no more. That’s about the best we can hope for.
As we get older and wisdom replaces impatience and impertinence, we can even celebrate those moments when we merely approximate the ultimate truth of some timeless conundrum.
Recently, I had a momentary insight, a breakthrough, if you will on one such timeless question that had forever remained and enigmatic and unsolvable riddle to me.
You’ll recognize it instantly. As well as be reminded of the mind-numbing circles the question has put your mind through over the years.
“How much wood does a woodchuck chuck, if a woodchuck could chuck wood?”
My answer?
First, in the short run, it no longer matters because with the internet flattening our global economy there are now wood chucks on the other side of the world—hungry, talented and tireless wood chucks—who will do three times the work at a fraction of the pay. Making the American woodchuck more of a drain on our economy who will have to develop more diverse, creative and less routinized talents–just to survive.
The real question is what “value adds” and “intangible values” the American woodchuck can bring to his work in the future to even remain relevant. And as much as I don’t like even going there, we have to face the fact that most wood based products will soon be replaced by superior digital substitutes.
But now I’m over-thinking it.
I’m not saying this is “the answer.” I’m only saying it’s a approximate of “an answer.” But it’s something and will free our mind up to ponder other–even deeper–questions
By John Y. Brown III, on Thu Nov 8, 2012 at 12:00 PM ET Politics and summer camp.
I guess my father was right. Funny, it took 36 years for me to understand clearly the point he was making.
When I was 13 years old I went to summer camp in North Carolina for seven weeks. I didn’t want to go but once I got there loved it. I had the time of my life, made new friends, and didn’t want to leave when it was time to come home.
The night before camp ended there was an awards ceremony. Sort of like senior superlatives in high school. I’m sure most every camper got an award but I was covetous toward the award I was expecting. I had overheard the counselors say I wasn’t going to get “Best basketball player” (which is what I wanted). But I would get “Best all-round athlete.” At first, it sounded like a made-up consolation prize. But the more I thought about it, the more I liked the way it sounded. And maybe I did deserve it. I thought of my highlights that summer in kick-ball, softball, soccer, hide-and-seek with a flashlight, treading water for 30 minutes, Zip line, and dodge ball and decided it was an even better award than what I had originally hoped for—and now I wanted it even more than the initial award I desired. And couldn’t wait to hang it in my bedroom back home for all my friends to see.
And now the moment had arrived. I could tell the master of ceremonies was talking about me. I was so excited when he called my name I didn’t even listen for the title of the award. I just went up front, took the hand-carved and hand-painted award (about the size of a miniature license plate, and sat down jubilant.
Until I looked down and read what what I had won. “Best Sportsmanship Award” was written in what looked like green and yellow nail polish. What?!!? What happened? How did I go from potential “best basketball player” to “best all-round athlete” to this? Who wants to be a good sport? I mean, that’s just saying I am a pleasant loser, right? And seems to imply I am bad at every sport since I have to be so nice about losing all the time—and I must lose a lot to stand out enough for an award for how well I do it!
I felt about the same way I did as when I was at Bruce Zimlich’s second grade birthday party at Lyndon Lanes bowling alley and his mother gave my a prize even though I had the lowest bowling score of any of the kids at the party.
She explained, “I had won!”
“But how?” I asked, remembering my abysmal score and frequent gutter balls.
“Well, John, it’s called a ‘Booby Prize.’ It’s the prize for finishing in last place” she said smiling, trying to put a happy face on my “award.”
“How awesome,” I probably thought to myself sarcastically. And looking at my sportsmanship award that night, I was having similar thoughts.
But when my father saw the award tossed to the corner of my bedroom desk, he picked it up and praised me for it. He effused about how important it was in life to always be a good sport, to be “man enough” (person enough) to shake hands and congratulate the winner and never to sulk or whine or start making excuses for when you lost. Or gloat when you won. And recited from memory a poem he and my grandfather liked –one of those inspirational sports poems that drove the point home.
I believed some of it, I guess. But not all. Until tonight.
I was reflecting on the 2000 and the 2012 presidential elections. Hard fought battles with so much seemingly on the line for the two major political parties and their supporters.
I was a good sport in 2000 when the candidate I voted for lost in a heartbreakingly tight election. And I didn’t gloat when the candidate I supported won in a similarly close election last Tuesday. And it made me think about my “Best Sportsmanship” award at summer camp in 1976. Finally, all these years later, I realized it was a good award to receive and something to be proud of. And that being a good sport in life really is important. Just like my dad said. No matter how old you are.
By Paul Hodes, on Wed Nov 7, 2012 at 4:00 PM ET I am bone-weary and hugely relieved at the outcome of the 2012 election. Some keep asking how a Republican Party so devoid of ideas could mount such a strong Presidential challenge and maintain control of the House. Beyond the simple answer; “It’s the economy, stupid”, something deeper is at work. The deeper issues warrant serious thought and immediate action.
Paul Hodes
My son, Max, is a brilliant out-of the box thinker who has always marched to his own beat. He is 29 and thoroughly disillusioned with our political system. Despite my service as a Democratic United States Congressman, or perhaps because of it, he sees no difference between the two major parties. On Election Day, he cast a reluctant vote for Barack Obama.
My sister-in-law, Trisha is a conservative home-maker who lives in Virginia. She leans strongly Republican, grieves over what she perceives as her loss of any real voice in our political system. I have no doubt that she cast her vote for Mitt Romney.
I am a determined Democrat. I first ran for office in 2004 to try to change the direction of the country which I saw as controlled by ideologues, embroiled in an unnecessary war and headed for damaging deficits generated by fiscally irresponsible tax and economic policies. Having served as a member of the House I developed new respect for the institutions of our democracy. And, from my own experience, I think I have a good idea of why both Max and Trisha are disillusioned.
Our democracy is challenged by the pervasive influence of power brokers and corporate kingdoms which both overtly and covertly seem to hold policy-makers in their thrall. Whether through outsized campaign contributions and spending or playing the inside game in Washington; their influence is undeniable. A central challenge of any political institution, and especially for my beloved Democratic former colleagues, is to accept the challenge of change wholeheartedly. Real change takes commitment and persistence. It takes brutal honesty and probably some discomfort. I hope that leaders in both the House and the Senate are up to the task.
For example, in the Senate, filibuster rules must be changed. In the House, the antiquated seniority system is an impediment to progress. Looking outside the institutions, promoting change in our campaign finance system and, taking aim at influence peddling are fundamental to the future electoral success of the Democratic Party and the country.
The President’s narrow popular vote margin should give Democrats real pause. We re-elected a President but could not achieve a mandate for a unified Government. The President is personally popular. I’m not at all sure that Democrats generally can bask in the same glow. Democrats see the differences between the parties clearly. But, at least half of the America which votes either don’t get what we’re about or believe the brand the Republicans have foisted upon us: we’re the party of high taxes and hand-outs
The antidote is fundamental re-examination and refocusing. We must adopt, pursue communicate and message a progressive agenda for economic growth as the focus of our Party: Education, Innovation and Infrastructure. With a consistent focus and the right messaging we can create a more solid foundation for electoral success over the long haul. Without refocusing and “rebranding”, we will continue to struggle to convince Americans that we can be trusted to govern a dynamic and diverse country in a new century.
The Economic Innovation Action Fund works to focus and rebrand current Democratic issues into clear and potent message about a core economic agenda for growth and innovation consistent with progressive values.
Join us as www.economicinnovationinstitute.org.
By John Y. Brown III, on Wed Nov 7, 2012 at 12:00 PM ET How I feel this morning about the outcome of presidential election:
(Me) I live in Kentucky and voted for Barack Obama and am glad he won. And my name is John.
(Group, in unison). “Hi, John.”
By Jason Atkinson, on Wed Nov 7, 2012 at 11:35 AM ET  It was like praying for a snow-day in the middle of summer. Sure there was a cloud, but….. I was surprised by a few states that were in play early on, but the Obama victory was systematic and executed without reaching for snow goggles.
The real issue is my party. Romney insured four more years of tea party litmus testing from Congress down and according to the lessons of the 1970’s- Republicans don’t win. (Buckley vs. Rockefeller, part two).
We need to be the party of solutions, lead in front of fear, stop scaring women and being perceived as against brown people. Yes, history always gives favor to the incumbent, but my party never got beyond one issue: vote for for me because. A lot of votes were against Obama, but never “FOR” what a Republicans would do. You can’t win in protest only.
By John Y. Brown III, on Tue Nov 6, 2012 at 12:00 PM ET
A momentous occasion. Historic even.
Today…. is Election Day.
And Election Day will be followed by Wednesday….and, if all goes as planned, followed by Thursday. Short of cataclysmic fallout on Tuesday night, Thursday more than likely will be followed by Friday. And then we will probably see something resembling what we used to call “the weekend.” …
And then Monday. And we’ll return to tilling our individual gardens.
And so on.
I’m guessing this will be how it play out anyway.
In anticipation of this overblown occasion, I sent this message to a friend this morning who is a great person and someone who I like and admire a lot –and who, coincidentally, is working hard to elect political candidates with different views from the ones I support.
“Let’s get something down for late next week or the following week…..Mid morning on Thur or Fri are best for me. Will be a wild and wooly week for sure! But when it’s all over, the votes are counted, and the dust settles, people will still need to drink caffeine together. That much I know…. ; )”
There’s not much else I know about the next week or two. But I do know that.
And it’s more important to know that than we probably think. I guess what I’m trying to say is that this is a “big” week.
But not because we will have chosen as a country the president and vice-president for the next four years. But because we will return focus to our daily lives.
Where we have the most impact. And where we actually live.
By John Y. Brown III, on Mon Nov 5, 2012 at 12:00 PM ET
Embracing my masculinity.
Last night going through the drive thru at Taco Bell I ordered a common order for me: 3 tacos. But for some reason the automatic follow-up question caught my attention in a different way than ever before.
“Would you like those tacos soft or hard shell?”
I paused for a few seconds wondering, “What does it say about a person who chooses “soft” over “hard” shell? Or vice versa?
Maybe “soft” taco types tend to be liberal and soft –almost effeminate. And maybe “hard” shell taco types are more conservative politically, like to stick with tradition and the status quo and more manly sounding food options.
And then I thought, Besides, that seems like a very personal question anyway.”
I was interrupted in deep thought, “Sir, soft or hard shell?”
I was relieved I got a sir and not a “ma’am” which happens more than I’d like to admit.
So, I dug deep for my lowest, slowest, manliest hard shell taco voice, and played it safe, “Hard shell” I said, Almost as if it was an insult to be asked. And to emphasize the kind of gringo they were dealing with, I added, “And make that a regular, not diet coke.”
I was relieved I hadn’t put an Obama bumper sticker on my car yet, which could have undermined the entire subliminal impact of my dinner order.
Sometimes men just have to get in touch with that primitive part of their masculinity—of what makes us men.
No apologies.
It’s a nature thing that modern social customs can limit but not remove. And last night I embraced it.
And if anyone in the Taco Bell kitchen overheard my order and my voice–and the “regular coke” exclamation point I added, it was unmistakeable that, yeah, that’s right, there was one bad alpha male about to pull up at the drive thru window.
By Jonathan Miller, on Mon Nov 5, 2012 at 8:30 AM ET  (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)
If you haven’t entered the First Quadrennial Recovering Politician Electoral College Contest, you’ve got until tomorrow, Tuesday at 6:00 AM EST. Here are the details for your chance to win 2 FREE lower-arena tickets to the defending national champion University of Kentucky Wildcat basketball team’s official home opener at Lexington’s Rupp Arena, versus Lafayette University, on Friday, November 16 at 7:00 PM. Remember, the first step is to become a member of the RP’s new Facebook page, Facebook.com/RecoveringPol, and provide your predictions in the post marked “Designated RP Electoral College Contest Post.” The award will be presented to the individual who most accurately predicts the final Electoral College vote, with tiebreakers of predicting the Senate and Housr partisan compositions after the election.
The 2008 Electoral College Map
As a service to all of you procrastinators out there, our experts — contributing RPs and friends of RP — have weighed in on their predictions. You can choose to go with one of their picks, or stick with your own and feel smarter than a recovering politician.
So here goes. Feel free to comment below, but remember according to the rules, only comments at the Designated RP Electoral College Contest Post at the RP Facebook page will be qualified for the grand prize.
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The RP: Obama 303, Romney 235. (Obama wins WI, NV, IA, NH, CO, VA and OH; Romney squeaks out the narrowest victory in FL); Senate: 50 Dems, 48 GOP, 2 Indy; House: 239 GOP, 196 Dems
Contributing RP Rod Jetton:
President– Romney 277 and Obama 261. Romney takes the true toss ups of NH, CO, IA and WI, while holding the safer states of FL, NC and VA. Obama keeps OH, MN, MI, NV and PA. The auto bailout keeps Obama with Ohio, but Ryan and the debates help Romney hold WI which Ohio is not required on their path to victory. PA will be close but O will hold on there. R wins popular vote 52-48. With unemployment at 7.9% and even worse, gas prices up over $3.50, it is amazing that any incumbent could even keep it close. When we add in how Obama seemed to have a bit of the Bush 42 attitude of not really wanting to mess with a re-election campaign plus the Libya debacle it is hard to see Obama winning. Romney is a solid steady campaigner that nobody loves, but he has a good resume and seems to be up to the job of fixing the economy.
Senate– D-52 and R-46. (I-2) The Republicans will pick up a few seats but the weak candidates will keep them from taking the majority. My state of Missouri is a good example of that. McCaskill was in bad shape and should have been defeated in 2012 but with all Akin’s messaging problems she is poised to survive.
House – R-237 and D- 198. There will not be a big change in the House and Romney’s debates and October surge will help Republicans down ticket in many of the battleground seats.
Jordan Stivers (Friend of RP): Obama 280, Romney 258; Senate: R-47, D – 51, I-2; House: R-237, D-198
Contributing RP John Y. Brown, III: Election Day will be followed by Wednesday….and, if all goes as planned, followed by Thursday. Short of cataclysmic fallout on Tuesday night, Thursday more than likely will be followed by Friday. And then we will probably see something resembling what we used to call “the weekend.”
Friend of RP Zac Byer (traveling with VP GOP nominee Paul Ryan): My head still says Romney tops out at 256, but after visiting 6 swing states in the last 56 hours, and my gut says otherwise: Romney: 277, Obama: 261; 51 D, 47 R, 2 I; 238 R, 197 D
Contributing RP Jeff Smith: Obama 277, Romney 261; Senate: R-48, D – 50+2I; House: R-240, D-195
Ron Granieri (Friend of RP): Obama: 280, Romney: 258; Senate: 51-49 Dems (with independents); House: 245-190 Reps
Contributing RP Nick Paleologos: Obama 275. Romney 263.
Steven Schulman (Friend of RP): Whatever Nate Silver says.
Contributing RP Jimmy Dahroug: Obama 275, Romney 263; Senate: Dems 51 GOP 47; 2 Indy; House: GOP 241 Dems 194
David Snyder (Friend of RP): Obama wins 290-248. Senate – 51 Democrats 47 Republicans, 2 Independents. House – 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats
Contributing RP Greg Harris: Obama: 332, Romney: 206 (Polls indicate presidential race is neck and neck among “likely” voters. Obama’s lead is greater among “registered” voters. These votes, under-represented in polling, will redound to Obama’s advantage in states like FL and CO.); Senate: R-44, D – 54, I – 2; House: R-232, D-203
Robert Kahne (Friend of RP): Obama: 332, Romney: 206. Senate: D:53 (inc 2 IND) R: 47. House: D: 205, Rep: 230
Contributing RP Jason Grill: Obama gets 294 and Romney 244; Senate – 52 D 46 R 2 I; House – 234 R 201 D.
And watch this for more of Jason’s analysis:
By Jonathan Miller, on Sat Nov 3, 2012 at 10:00 AM ET  Tuesday night, beginning at 6PM EST, our contributing recovering politicians will be offering their instant thoughts on the election returns, speechifying and mainstream media coverage via Twitter. We will be broadcasting their live Twitter feed here on The Recovering Politician home page.
Even better, YOU are invited to join in the debate. You can participate in the discussion by using you own Twitter account and adding the hashtag #RecoveringPol to your tweets. We encourage you to participate through the evening, and please free free to engage, question, and challenge our contributing RPs.
So please join us Tuesday night at 6PM EST, until the wee hours Wednesday morning — and who knows, maybe even longer…
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