By my count, six Republicans of differing degrees of stature have passed on running for President. Some of the hesitation is rooted in jitters about entering the national stage prematurely (Pence, Thune, maybe Christie, if he is chemically capable of jitters); some of it is based on a cold assessment that Barack Obama plus a billion dollar war-chest is too high a barrier in the fall, and that playing kingpin in the primaries is an appealing enough way to spend the winter and spring of 2012.
(1) Can Romney win a nomination when his signature accomplishment is anathema to his party? In the early part of the last decade, when a centrist record seemed essential to winning general elections, Romney’s stewardship of healthcare reform in Massachusetts seemed ideal pre-positioning for an eventual presidential run. Today, “Romneycare” is why a candidate who just raised 10 million dollars in a day, and who leads in the polls, is still so vulnerable. Roughly 80% of Republicans not only oppose the national legislation that copies major portions of Romney’s work, they loathe it and desperately desire its repeal. Romney’s efforts to explain away the comparison are so far a babble and greater scrutiny of his plan will only make matters worse.
Romney’s hope is that electability, the fact that he alone polls within hailing distance of Obama, will outweigh his albatross. His problem is that in primaries, electability is a vessel for blank slates, not candidates with a freight train of positions. Nor is Bill Clinton ‘s “centrist campaign” in 92 much of a model. Clinton’s defense of the death penalty and his then vague promises to revamp welfare were hardly signature issues that year; in contrast, the fate of Obama’s healthcare law will be front and center, especially in the GOP electorate. The hard reality for Romney: Gerald Ford is the last candidate who won a nomination with his party opposed to major chunks of his record and that did not end well.
(2) Is there a “silent majority” in the Republican Party? Jon Huntsman and to a degree, Mitch Daniels, think there is and that it is very different from the cultural conservative base that the term was coined to describe. The reason that Huntsman conceives that a social moderate who served in the Obama Administration can win, and the reason that Daniels call for a “truce” on abortion and gay rights, is that in their estimation there is a sleeping center in the Republican Party that distrusts the “culture wars”. There is limited circumstantial evidence for the premise: national polls for the better part of a decade have shown unexpected Republican sympathies for abortion rights and gay rights. But primaries and early caucuses contain more than their share of evangelical leaning conservatives who remain embracing of a traditional moral agenda.
Read the rest of… Artur Davis: Handicapping the Republican Primary
I first ran for office as an ordinary citizen from New Hampshire in 2004. My hope when I ran was to help change the course of the nation and to effectively represent the people of my state with independence, integrity and imagination. I was fortunate to meet those goals before joining the ranks of The Recovering Politician.
I was part of a historic new majority in the House of Representatives and was chosen by my peers as President of the Freshman Class of 2006. I served on the Oversight and Government reform committee and the Financial Services committee during a period of unprecedented activity.
As a freshman congressman from the first in the nation primary state, I was courted by Presidential candidates. I believed that the wave of change that swept me into office was not finished and that business as usual in Washington needed some shaking up. Against all odds, I decided to support a long-shot candidate for whom change was a theme, Barack Obama. I had the honor of serving as a national co-chair for the President’s first campaign.
The wave elections of 2006 and 2008 were countered by the tsunami of 2010 when I decided not to run for my congressional seat; instead I ran, unsuccessfully, for the United States Senate. Politics has a lot to do with timing and luck. You can’t surf a tsunami. As a musician I should know a bit about timing. Suffice it to say, I had quite a while to confront the idea of political afterlife while I ran for the Senate, a tremendous experience nonetheless.
Read the rest of… Paul Hodes: On the Way to Recovery & Renewal
Last week I wrote about congressional redistricting, and the messy inter- and intra-party hostility it engenders – and is currently sparking in my home state of Missouri.
Congressman Russ Carnahan
And as hypothesized, more hostility developed in Missouri following the Legislature’s override of Governor Nixon’s veto of the map. Because Missouri lost a seat during the apportionment process, the new map divides up Congressman Russ Carnahan’s district among four other districts, and Rep. Carnahan has been lashing out – first a few weeks ago at his fellow Missouri Democrat Rep. Lacy Clay, and then a few days ago at another Missouri Dem, Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, for going along with the decimation of his district. Of course, he is more privately seething at the four Democratic members of the state House who defected and voted for the override.
Does anyone really think Rep. Carnahan would be working to kill the map if the Republican Legislature had proposed to divide Rep. Clay’s district four ways and force him to run in an overwhelmingly white district? If you do, you’ve probably never seen Jane Elliot’s famed Brown Eyes, Blue Eyes experiment – and you don’t know much about human nature. Instincts for self-preservation are strong, power intoxicating, and race often wielded as a tool to gain and maintain it.
***
Now, surely Rep. Carnahan is angry at the Republicans for drawing these maps, but that anger is mild: he had to have expected it from them. Carnahan’s more visceral fury has been directed at his co-partisans.
Read the rest of… Jeff Smith: Dirty Tricks: On Race, Redistricting, and Stalking Horses
We are proud to announce that our own contributing RP, Jeff Smith, has been asked to join “The Arena,” Politico’s daily debate with policymakers and opinion shapers.
Jeff’s first piece was in response to the group’s discussion of the state of the economy:
Using the absolute number of jobs created as a gauge of employment trends can be deceiving for a couple simple reasons.
1) The economy needs to add somewhere in the neighborhood of 200,000 jobs per month just to keep up with population growth. So the first couple hundred thousand jobs added generally won’t reduce unemployment because of a growing denominator…
By Jonathan Miller, on Fri May 6, 2011 at 2:15 PM ET
Tomorrow is a quasi-religious holiday in my home state — the one day we put aside our obsession with college basketball, and focus on something truly spiritual: a two-minute race, involving about 20 three-year-old thoroughbred horses and a bunch of vertically-challenged guys riding on top of them.
Wherever you are, you might have an opportunity to place a small wager on the race, or to select a horse’s name on a piece of paper from a punch bowl at a Derby party. Because The Recovering Politician‘s mission is to serve our readers with critical information at timely moments like this, our Contributing RPs, the Friends of RP, and even the RP staff have been asked to share their expertise and give you their recommended picks.
(OK, they’ve been bribed: Winning entries from the RP team will receive a bottle of mint julep mix; the funniest pick wins a box of delicious chocolate bourbon balls.)
So, with all the obvious disclaimers (adults only; gamble in moderation; if you wager at a track, consider your bet a contribution to Kentucky’s struggling horse industry; picking a horse by its color or name is often as effective as studying the Daily Racing Form; females, be sure to wear an outrageous hat to your Derby party–see an example to the right), here is the deeply-educated, passionately-considered handicapping of the RP team:
The RP: My brother-in-law, Clark Mandel, is a chiropractor who works with horses, and a very serious handicapper. His picks are in this order: Archarcharch, Pants On Fire, and Soldat. I will follow his advice, putting my big money ($5) on Pants On Fire because of Jeff Smith’s comment at the bottom of this post.
John Roach: If the track is dry, I like Mucho Macho Man and Nehro. For longshot plays, I like Twice the Appeal and Master of the Hounds.
Grant Smith (RP Staff): I’m going with Twice the Appeal. Not only is Calvin Borel the jockey, the horse’s position at Gate 3 only increases the odds that Calvin “Bo Rail” will be able to pull off his famous rail-riding antics all the way to victory.
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend: I am going with Twinspired…I like the cleverness of the name…and I have two sets of twins as nieces and nephews, and they inspire me with their grace and ability!
Kristen Hamilton (RP Staff): I love Calvin Borel, but if I were to pick one based on a name, it would be Archarcharch, because that is exactly what I said after taking finals. :/
Andrei Cherny: I say Mucho Macho Man in honor of Arizona’s Hispanic heritage.
Stephanie Doctrow (RP Staff): My favorite Derby horse has to be Stay Thirsty… I don’t know much about the horses this year, but as an upperclassman at a Big Ten university, I feel obligated to pick the one with that name!
Loranne Ausley: I was going to go with Watch Me Go as a Florida bred with a female trainer (only 2 female trainers tomorrow making them the 14th and 15th in history of Derby), but I am going with Pants on Fire. Not Florida bred, but ridden by a female jockey…..if they win, Rosie Napravnik would be first woman jockey to win the Derby! Only 5 previous female jockeys in the history of the race. Here is a link to a story in the St. Pete Times Politifact (yes, Politifact has opined on this because “Pants on Fire” is a term of art in their political fact checking world!)
Antics in the Derby infield
Zack Adams (RP Staff): Twice the Appeal. I’m betting on Calvin Bo-rail, winner of 3 of the last 4 Derbys.
Steven Schulman (Who attended the Derby infield with the RP while in high school): From personal experience, I can’t say there are horses at the Derby. But I will pick Mucho Macho Man. Of course.
Carte Goodwin: When I was living in Atlanta, a radio station used to periodically have a contest called Rock Band or Racehorse. The DJs would read a name, and callers would have to identify it — say Veruca Salt as a band, or Unbridled as a horse. So in honor of that contest, Santiva sounds like a good band name (or at least better than Pants on Fire.)
If you read contributing RP Carte Goodwin‘s inaugural piece on Wednesday, you learned that the first vote he cast in his brief four month tour of duty as a U.S. Senator was one of his most important. Indeed, Carte was the deciding vote to break a fillibuster in order to extend unemployment benefits to some of the nation’s most needy citizens.
Today’s RPTV Friday Flashback memorializes that epic moment in Carte’s life:
Before and during my time in the state Senate, I taught political science for a decade, and no issue fascinated my students more than redistricting. Once I opened class during the week on redistricting by bringing several chairs to the front of the lecture hall, turning on Snoop Dogg’s anthem “Who Am I?”, and leading students in a game of Musical Chairs. (I picked Snoop because the mentality of politicians facing redistricting is pure gangsta: you do whatever you need to do to survive. Also, I wanted students to think that in a past life, I was pretty cool.)
Bow Wow Wow.
It was thru the prism of Musical Chairs that I explained how redistricting works in states that lose a congressional seat, as Missouri has this year. The seat that disappears under the Republican-drawn map is the seat I contested back in 2004. (In the interest of full disclosure, it is occupied by Congressman Russ Carnahan (D-MO), the man who narrowly beat me and pursued an FEC complaint about an anonymous postcard mailed at the end of the campaign, the knowledge of which I hid from the feds, ultimately leading to my prison term.)
In any case, the current situation has inspired quite a bit of internecine tension. For instance, according to Politico, after their districts were combined in a way perceived as unfavorable to him, Rep. Carnahan recently told fellow Missouri Democratic Rep. Lacy Clay to f- off. In his public response, Rep. Clay channeled former warrior-entertainers “Nature Boy” Ric Flair and Muhammad Ali. The F-bombs weren’t limited to the Democratic side: Republican leaders of the House and Senate were also at odds in their attempt to draw a map that appeased the varied interests at the table.
Read the rest of… Jeff Smith: The Recovering Redistrict-aholic
By Robert Kahne, RP Staff, on Wed May 4, 2011 at 10:00 AM ET
Politics of the Diamond
Francisco Liriano tossed the first no-hitter of 2011 for the Minnesota Twins. Even though he walked 6 guys, a no hitter is impressive regardless. [Minneapolis Star-Tribune]
discussed declining attendance at MLB parks in this space before. While baseball fans may be worried that people aren’t coming out to see the nation’s past time, Bud Selig isn’t. [SI]
The Indians–yes, the ones from Cleveland–are perched atop the AL Central, a full 4.5 games clear of Kansas City–who is in second place. The AL Central is certainly topsy-turvy this year. The real question? Are these Indians as good as the ones from Major League? [The Big Lead]
The Yankee’s accidentally leaked a spreadsheet containing the personal information of 20,000 of their season ticket holders. Deadspin correctly calls this controversy “Spam Yankees.” [Deadspin]
The Dodgers’ front office gets uglier and uglier by the day. It now appears that Frank McCourt, the Dodgers owner, doesn’t have the cash to cover payroll past May. [Yahoo!]
When Jonathan Miller called me and asked whether I would be interested in contributing a piece to a new website he was starting called “The Recovering Politician,” I was admittedly a little reluctant. First, I’m wary of the characterization of “politician” – not because of any negative connotation, but rather because I’m not sure I qualify since I never had sought elective office And irrespective of that first concern, I’m fully aware that it would be quite a stretch to claim that I’ve “recovered” from the extraordinary experience of serving in the United States Senate.
Last July, 2010, Governor Joe Manchin of West Virginia appointed me to fill the vacancy caused by the passing of Senator Robert C. Byrd – one of the true lions of the Senate and West Virginia’s most beloved public servant. Senator Byrd cast quite a long shadow, and it was daunting to contemplate being appointed to fill the seat previously occupied by the longest serving legislative member in the history of the United States. I could not begin to replace Senator Byrd or ever hope to fill his enormous shoes, but what I could do was emulate his work ethic and commitment to West Virginia – which is precisely what I strove to do during my four months in Washington, a town ruled by Congress, blackberries and Members-only elevators, and a place where fame (and infamy) can come and go in a matter of hours.
Stacey King, Michael Jordan and teammates celebrate the 20th anniversary of their first NBA title
(Side note: Years ago, former Oklahoma standout and Chicago Bull forward Stacey King saw limited action in an NBA game, hitting a single free throw. That same night, his teammate Michael Jordan poured in sixty-nine points. Afterwards, King joked that he would always remember that game as the night that he and Jordan “combined for 70 points.” Similarly, rather that describing my term as “four months,” I usually characterize it by saying that Senator Byrd and I combined to serve over 52 years in the United States Senate. )
Within days of my arrival, men and women I had studied in law school were introducing themselves to me, welcoming me as one of their own, then asking for my vote in the same sentence. And I wasn’t alone; I was immediately put at the helm of a full Senate staff – many of whom had served for decades under Senator Byrd. I was given a personal secretary and press secretary – no longer would I be the one answering the phone in my own office. However, I declined the offer of a personal driver and did the unthinkable – walked myself to work.
In no particular order, here are some random recollections and highlights from that heady time:
Press coverage & John Daly’s Pants?
John Daly's pants
I had to adjust quickly to the media attention. I’d considered myself prepared for the press, after having spent four years as a senior staffer in the Governor’s office, doing the occasional TV or radio interview. Yet, the appointment shot the level of attention into the stratosphere, with newspapers, television, blogs and everything in between weighing in with their thoughts on the relative merits of my appointment. Nothing was off-limits. To the delight of my buddies, one website offered an online poll debating where my looks stacked up against my fellow Senators, while a local West Virginia paper registered their enthusiasm for the appointment by describing it succinctly as “a letdown.”
Indeed, the temporary burst of attention became so intense that on the day that my appointment was announced, I briefly topped Google’s Hot Searches, besting former NBA star Penny Hardaway, the iphone 4, and golfer “John Daly’s pants.” I haven’t had the inclination to go back and find out why Daly’s pants made the top 10 that day.
Read the rest of… Carte Goodwin: My Brief but Fascinating Experience as a U.S. Senator
The world is safer and more free with the news that Osama Bin Laden is dead. Al Qaeda is demoralized, and its marginalization is on display in a vivid manner for young men and women in the Arab world trying to decide if modernity or jihad is the best principle to organize their ambitions.
I am not as quick to compare the moment with the collapse of the Berlin Wall, or the collapse of the Soviet Union, as some commentators have rushed to do. It elevates Bin Laden to compare his virtual, quasi-state of malcontents and jihadists to Soviet totalitarianism at its peak. At the same time, it underestimates the reach and the viral quality of radical fundamentalism to assume that Bin Laden’s demise is the equivalent of military divisions dissolving or nuclear codes being disarmed.
The best way to quantify the event, I believe, is not analogy but a nod to American power wisely and assertively deployed over two administrations and ten years. Both the Bush and Obama Administration deserve tribute for a patient dismantling of Al Qaeda over that period of time: it has been appropriately lethal and effective and has required the stretching of pre 9/11 sensibilities. At times, it has veered off course–the embrace of torture as a tactic comes to mind–but not many Americans believed on the night of 9/11 that another decade would pass without a terror attack on American soil.
I have no illusion that the exhilaration in America today has permanent political significance. Our attention span is so fleeting. It also seems to me mildly profane to turn the moment into partisan chortling over how Obama accomplished what Bush did not. But I liked seeing the exultation on television in the last 12 hours–and I loved the fact that is multi-ethnic, multi-generational, and that reaction is not splintered along the dividing lines that are all over the political landscape.
I admire both Obama’s unadorned reference to “justice” last night–that is exactly how my faith describes the rooting out of evil– and George W. Bush’s September 2001 shouts above the rubble at Ground Zero that “the people who destroyed these buildings are about to hear all of us.” After a decade of evasion, Osama Bin Laden finally heard us in the frenzy of BlackHawks descending and our bullets finding their mark. The echoes of that sound are just what a dispirited nation needed to hear.
By my count, six Republicans of differing degrees of stature have passed on running for President. Some of the hesitation is rooted in jitters about entering the national stage prematurely (Pence, Thune, maybe Christie, if he is chemically capable of jitters); some of it is based on a cold assessment that Barack Obama plus a billion dollar war-chest is too high a barrier in the fall, and that playing kingpin in the primaries is an appealing enough way to spend the winter and spring of 2012.
decade, when a centrist record seemed essential to winning general elections, Romney’s stewardship of healthcare reform in Massachusetts seemed ideal pre-positioning for an eventual presidential run. Today, “Romneycare” is why a candidate who just raised 10 million dollars in a day, and who leads in the polls, is still so vulnerable. Roughly 80% of Republicans not only oppose the national legislation that copies major portions of Romney’s work, they loathe it and desperately desire its repeal. Romney’s efforts to explain away the comparison are so far a babble and greater scrutiny of his plan will only make matters worse.
Is there a “silent majority” in the Republican Party? Jon Huntsman and to a degree, Mitch Daniels, think there is and that it is very different from the cultural conservative base that the term was coined to describe. The reason that Huntsman conceives that a social moderate who served in the Obama Administration can win, and the reason that Daniels call for a “truce” on abortion and gay rights, is that in their estimation there is a sleeping center in the Republican Party that distrusts the “culture wars”. There is limited circumstantial evidence for the premise: national polls for the better part of a decade have shown unexpected Republican sympathies for abortion rights and gay rights. But primaries and early caucuses contain more than their share of evangelical leaning conservatives who remain embracing of a traditional moral agenda. 
