Jason Atkinson: Half-Pounder — A Short Film

Contributing RP Jason Atkinson has followed up his Internet sensation, “Big Mo” — which debuted here at The Recovering Politician — with a new short film on fishing, “Half Pounder.”

Enjoy:

The RP’s BREAKING News: The Politics of Pigskin

Reports out of the Indianapolis Colts state Peyton Manning is still looking to practice this season and retains hope that he may play in a game in 2011. Manning had his third neck surgery in 19 months in September when he had part of his spine fused. Unbelievable. [ESPN]

Jeff Smith: Can Herman Cain Survive?

Facing an Iowa Republican caucus electorate that

  1. 1) to put it diplomatically, has traditional views on gender relationships, and earlier vaulted to frontrunner status a woman who advised other women to “submit” to their husbands;
  2. 2) finds any item about a conservative politician originating in the MSM to be dubious; and
  3. 3) has appeared to penalize candidates only when they do or say anything that receives MSM plaudits (i.e., Perry’s position on in-state college tuition for immigrants, almost anything Huntsman has said), I’m not so sure this episode hurts Cain.

That doesn’t mean I think he’ll get the nomination. At some point, common sense will prevail.

(Cross-posted, with permission of the author, from Politico’s Arena)

Artur Davis: The Democratic Party’s Faith Gap

 

The Democratic Party has a faith gap–and if anything it is getting wider. The Gallup Poll has just released data showing a chasm between the political leanings of  self-described “very religious” whites, with 62% identifying themselves as Republicans and a scarce 27% identifying as Republicans. At this point, no other demographic skews more heavily toward Republicans than faith oriented whites, and the electoral consequences are unmistakable: it correlates almost evenly with the overwhelmingly Republican preferences of southern whites, who are the most religious whites in America, and further defines why a slew of states with large blocs of evangelical leaning whites are drifting away from Barack Obama, from Ohio to Virginia, to Florida, to Indiana, to Colorado.

 

There is a mindset in some Democratic circles that religious whites are disproportionately economic conservatives who are natural Tea Party sympathizers. While Gallup did not test specific issues, I have seen a slew of polling data from Alabama–a top two ranked state in football and religiosity–that shows religious whites are often economic populists, distrust corporate elites, don’t mind putting more taxes on those elites, and that surprising shares of them embrace the notion of more government spending on education and, yes, safety nets like Medicaid. They are proud, church-going denizens of the 99 percent, in Occupy Wall Street parlance.

 

But if the economic lean of religious whites is surprisingly to the left, their stance on social issues leans hard in the other direction. The Public Religion Research Institute recently found that in a country where voters are sharply split on abortion, only 29% of “evangelical” whites favor its legalization, while almost two thirds oppose. Similarly, on same sex marriage, which elite opinion now conclusively favors, and on which the public is split in half, over 80% of white evangelicals oppose legalizing gay marriage.

 

So, in practice, religious whites have voted their sectarian leanings over their economic tendencies. Breaking that pattern was until recently a major Democratic preoccupation. A succession of Democratic thinkers, most notably Jim Wallis, tried to pry the door open by re-casting liberal policies on healthcare, poverty, and educational access as faith-based priorities, grounded in Matthew’s New Testament admonition to advance the interests of the “least of these”. Barack Obama’s keynote address in 2004 sounded an eloquent note that “in the blue states, we worship an awesome God and in the red states, we have some gay friends.”  In 2005, Obama’s first high profile speech as a Senator linked his political vision to his faith and its promises of a more seamless community, and during the years of Obama’s rise, there seemed to be a genuine affinity between he and Rick Warren, the avatar of the “purpose driven life” and an evangelical icon. 

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Artur Davis: The Democratic Party’s Faith Gap

Artur Davis: Can Herman Cain Survive Harassment Allegations?

Can a candidate survive allegations that are roughly 15 years old, that are apparently not corroborated, and that resulted in relatively small settlements with his organization?

Probably, but there are a catalogue of ifs: if he is straightforward and composed in his denial of the claims of harassment; if the women don’t come forward and put a compelling face on the charges, and if this is not just the tip of the iceberg around claims as to how he treats women under his supervision.

In other words, this really falls on Herman Cain: does he have grace under fire and what kind of man, and boss, has he been?

The Cain team needs to study up on some recent history: how effectively the McCain campaign handled a New York Times story hinting at his infidelity with a lobbyist, and how Gov. Nikki Haley fended off even more lurid allegations in South Carolina last year.

McCain and Haley both understood that the Republican base distrusts these kinds of blows as a political hit job, and Cain is already stoking the same flames.
Finally, it should also be said that for a candidate whose ceiling was already about where he is today, “survival” is a relative term.

(Cross-posted, with permission of the author, from Politico’s Arena.)

Jeff Smith: A Fresh Start for Rick Perry?

Perry just needs to not mess up for eight weeks. I can’t imagine the numbers working on an optional 20 percent tax rate but I’m no economist. It’s not that important that the numbers work; what’s important is that he sound credible and serious defending it.

If he can do that and not get distracted by other issues, Cain will implode. Bachmann will quit shortly after Iowa and file for reelection. Gingrich will go back to selling books and speaking for $25K a pop or whatever he gets. Santorum will go back to annoying people.

And without all those candidates who’ve just been renting five to 20 percent of the voters, they’ll be up for grabs, and if anything is clear after the last five years, they aren’t really feeling Mitt Romney. So I think those voters break 2:1 or 3:1 for Perry.

Whether that’s enough will depend on his performance, and where Paul’s five to 10 percent end up. (Huntsman’s one to two percent splits between Romney and Obama – not enough to have an impact.)

By the way, I think Huckabee could swoop in tomorrow and scoop up enough of those “rented” voters to take the nomination.

(Cross-posted, with author’s permission, from Politico’s Arena)

Artur Davis: Will “Occupy Wall Street” Become a Left-Wing Tea Party?

Occupy Wall Street is the latest proof that populism is not a purely conservative phenomenon; instead, populism of the left or the right distrusts government as a bribed, compromised institution, and rejects consensus as a political tactic. For liberals who envy the conservative skill at converting protest movements into a sustained political force, and who want to create a left -leaning enforcer within the Democratic Party, OWS is the answer to a fantasy.

However, for Barack Obama, OWS happens to be the polar opposite of what he campaigned on as well as the message that launched him at the convention in Boston in 2004. Its “us versus them” mantra has made Wall Street its target, but its ultimate result would be a politics that is conflict-driven, divided, and bitterly conscious of the line between a “red” and a “blue” America. Obama should hear the anger in these protests, but he should recognize that it is poised to join the tea party as one more force that is pulling us apart.

Cross-posted, with permission of the author, from Politico’s Arena.

Newsweek Touts Eva Moskowitz: “Yes, Wall Street Helps the Poor”

While the “Occupy Wall Street” movement gains some steam, some critics are pointing to some of the philanthropy taking place among the masters of the universe. In the following article, Newsweek profiles the work contributing RP Eva Moskowitz is doing to improve education for poor, urban youth in New York City and her support on Wall Street:

It was a scene to curdle liberal blood. A ballroom full of New York hedge-fund managers playing poker … to raise money for charter schools.

That’s where I found myself last Wednesday: at a Texas Hold ’Em tournament to raise money for the Success Charter Network, which currently runs nine schools in some of New York’s poorest neighborhoods.

While Naomi Wolf was being arrested for showing solidarity with the Occupy Wall Street movement, there I was, consorting with the 1 percent the protesters hate. It’s no surprise that the bread-heads enjoy gambling. But to see them using their ill-gotten gains to subvert this nation’s great system of public education! I was shocked, shocked…

Your ZIP code can be your destiny, because poor neighborhoods tend to have bad schools, and bad schools perpetuate poverty. But the answer is not to increase spending on this failed system—nor to expand it at the kindergarten level, as proposed by Nicholas Kristof in The New York Times last week. As brave reformers like Eva Moskowitz know, the stranglehold exerted by the teachers’ unions makes it almost impossible to raise the quality of education in subprime public schools.

The right answer is to promote the kind of diversity and competition that already make the American university system the world’s best. And one highly effective way of doing this is by setting up more charter schools—publicly funded but independently run and union-free. The performance of the Success Charter Network speaks for itself. In New York City’s public schools, 60 percent of third, fourth, and fifth graders passed their math exams last year. The figure at Harlem Success was 94 percent.

Jeff Smith: Can Mitt Romney Take a Punch?

Jeff Smith

Perry’s attack itself may not have been that effective, but the reply he elicited from Romney was sure damaging: “I’m running for office, for Pete’s sake,” Mitt said he told his contractor. “I can’t have illegals!”

Debates are about moments that (appear to) crystallize candidates as human beings. After the hostage crisis and other blows to American prestige, people craved strength in 1980, and so when Reagan boomed, “I paid for this microphone!”, it suggested that he could be provide America the backbone it wanted at that moment. When George H.W. Bush looked at his watch in the 1992 town hall, it indicated that he just wasn’t that concerned with people’s plight – as opposed to the famed Clinton empathy to which a recession-weary nation responded. A simple gesture spoke volumes, because it comported with what Americans suspected was true: Bush was out of touch with their suffering.

In that vein, “I’m running for office, for Pete’s sake – I can’t have illegals!” Romney offered a window into his character: ambitious, practical, hands-on, and utterly lacking in principle. Let’s see if Perry can capitalize on this gift in the coming days.

(Cross-posted, with permission of the author, from Politico’s Arena)

Artur Davis: Is Obamacare Crumbling?

Yes, the CLASS program is a narrow feature of Obamacare that most Americans knew nothing about.

But scrapping the program validates some of the central critiques of health care reform – that it is overly complex, is unsustainable financially, and is too experimental and bureaucratic. And none this is hindsight – it is exactly what critics of the law argued would happen if the White House insisted on a systems overhaul of health are rather than a targeted attack on pre-existing illness exclusions and a federally-funded expansion of Medicaid.

The travails of the CLASS program also illustrate the degree to which congressional Democrats and private sector interests inserted a backlog of frustrated policy goals into the fine print of “Obamacare.” Hill staffers who were distrustful of the efficacy of the private insurance market fixated on CLASS as an eventual wedge into a “public option”, and in private meetings made no bones about their thinking.

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Artur Davis: Is Obamacare Crumbling?