By Jonathan Miller, on Fri Sep 14, 2012 at 1:30 PM ET
With seemingly every news agency and blog conducting its own polling for the 2012 presidential race, it’s often tough to get a true picture where the race stands: Did Obama get a convention “bounce”? Will it be permanent? Who’s really ahead?
Over the past few years, I have come to rely on the New York Times‘ Nate Silver, whose diligent and informed analysis of all public polling data has become the gold standard in political prognostication.
I encourage you to check in periodically at his web site (Click here), but today’s post was so informative, I excerpt it below:
We have seen a shift toward Mr. Obama in the polls since the Democratic convention. It appears that if an election were held today, he’d win it by somewhere in the neighborhood of four or perhaps five percentage points.
If Mr. Obama is ahead by four to five points nationally, we’d certainly also expect him to post his share of leads by about that margin in swing states. Because of statistical variance and differences in methodology, some of the numbers are going to be a little bit better for him than others. But the consensus of the data ought to quite strong for him.
The Marist polls probably did meet that standard. But there were also two other polls of Ohio released on Thursday that showed Mr. Obama up only one point instead, along with a trio of Florida polls showing a tie there, on average. Those aren’t bad numbers for Mr. Obama exactly, but they aren’t great ones either — they are more like those we were seeing from the polling firms in question before the conventions.
There were also polls out on Thursday in several other swing states — in New Hampshire, Michigan and Colorado, for example. The data, taken as a whole, was pretty good for Mr. Obama, as he led in almost all of the surveys, although mostly by small margins.
But the forecast model is now judging Mr. Obama by a higher standard. Why? Because it had more or less fully priced in his convention bounce as of a few days ago. In fact, its assumption is that Mr. Obama’s polls probably slightly exaggerate his standing right now.
By John Y. Brown III, on Fri Sep 14, 2012 at 12:00 PM ET
About a decade ago, a friend of mine called in a local radio station to report a tree had just fallen during a rain storm and was blocking a major traffic artery.
The call was appreciated, reported amd my friend even got to give a live update and describe the situation as it was developing. He was thanked for doing a good civic deed.
That impressed me, and I hoped to someday be able to volunteer my own civic good deed –by reporting back from about some important fact that those at home would appreciate knowing about.
Today, I feel, is my moment.
So here goes:
“Hey Louisville, I have been out driving all over our city for nearly 4 hours now and, I swear, almost every store is closed. Don’t go out unless you have to or just want to go to Thorton’s or Bed, Bath and Beyond. They are both open. And so is Panera Bread. But there isn’t a single place in our city open for a hair cut, if you are a guy. If you are a guy and want a haircut today, forget it! Ain’t happening! Wait until tomorrow. Or call a friend who cuts hair in her apartment —but even she is probably not working today because she is at some barbecue or cookout. And if Walmart is open today –and you absolutely have to get your haircut–don’t buy a Flowbee. I bought one once and it doesn’t work like on TV.”
OK, Louisville, over and out. Or whatever it is I am supposed to say.
Hey, next time I am going to do this with a cute weather girl so we can do some happy chatting about now–but since I am alone, I can’t do any vacuous chatting so I am just going to stop.
By Bradford Queen, Managing Editor, on Fri Sep 14, 2012 at 10:00 AM ET
The politics of the screen were on full display this week as an anti-Islam film has been credited with inciting violent protests in the Middle East and Northern Africa. Protestors attacked U.S. embassies in a number of countries. In Libya, an attack resulted in the death of Libya Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other staffers. Actors and workers on the film said they were duped. Now, the U.S. is bracing for more violence. [CBS News]
“Saturday Night Live” returns tomorrow, and presidential politics will be center-stage. Lorne Michaels has announced the men that will play the roles of President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in the show’s satirical sketches. [NYT]
A trailer for Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln” biopic was released yesterday. [LA Times]
“Arbitrage,” the new drama featuring Richard Gere about a hedge fund manager who’s life seems to be crumbling is released this weekend. [NYT Review]
By Jonathan Miller, on Fri Sep 14, 2012 at 9:15 AM ET
Some of the most brilliant comedy shorts have been produced over the years for ESPN Sportscenter television promos. But this one tops them all. See what the reserved, nerdy John Clayton (at left) is really like behind the camera:
Contributing RP, and former Republican National Chairman, Michael Steele, reported on the past weeks’ political conventions in an interview with John Stewart on his prestigious “Daily Show.” Watch it here:
By Jonathan Miller, on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 12:30 PM ET
As a longtime Saturday Night Live viewer — I can remember the days, sonny, when it was really funny — some of my favorite skits have always been the political impersonations. Some of the mimicking, indeed, has had significant geopolitical impact: Polls showed that the American public thought that Al Gore “won” the first 2000 debate with George W. Bush, but public opinion shifted after Darryl Hammond’s devastating reenactment of Gore’s sighing and lock-boxing. And there’s no doubt that Tina Fey helped shape the current image of her doppleganger, Sarah Palin.
I’ve never been the biggest Fred Armisten fan — how could he break up with Peggy from Mad Men?!?! — so I was thrilled to here that up-and-coming Jay Pharoah would be taking up the future Barack Obama duties.
Then I saw the following clip. Brilliant. If they could only find someone better than Jason Sudekis to do Mitt Romney, we might have a terrific comedy fall in store:
By John Y. Brown III, on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 12:00 PM ET
Powerless power pack.
I was so excited about my new iPhone power pack which your iphone fits jnto on those days you need it for longer than an hour and 45 min.
And today was one of those days I walked, confidently tonight, strutted really, as because I knew my power pack was with me and ready for action at the critical moment my battery drained out.
Well, it happened. Out it came, and I cockily inserted my dying iphone and then punched the power packs nifty power button. But nothing. Again, I pushed and poked and pressed every button I could find. But the power pack wasn’t up for it tonight.
Maybe it was a charging issue.
Maybe it just didn’t feel like saving the day.
Because even power packs need days off.
I couldn’t get mad.
I sympathetically and discreetly slipped the pack back into my pocket.
Didn’t want to embarrass it.
And just before I tucked it away, I held it up and said, “Don’t feel bad. I have had the same thing happen to me on multiple occassions. Let’s go home, get in bds and just watch cable and get recharged. Maybe tomorrow night…”
By Zack Adams, RP Staff, on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 10:00 AM ET
The Politics of Tech
Sir Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the Internet, is accusing the British government of extreme levels of snooping. [Telegraph]
Cosmo, the online alias of a 15 year-old hacker (one of the most notorious) has been arrested. Wired has a fantastic write up about his personal life and arrest. [Wired]
Samsung and HTC are doing their best to insure that the iPhone 5 does not have a smooth launch. They are currently blocking sales in the US and Europe with LTE patents. [AndroidandMe]
The FCC has informed mobile companies that it will begin monitoring claims of wireless broadband speeds. This is good news for anyone that has ever felt like their 3G wasn’t as fast as they expected it to be. [BGR]
The astronauts aboard the International Space Station repaired a malfunction in its Main Bus Switching Unit with a clever combination of materials including a toothbrush. Yes, really. [The Atlantic]
By Bradford Queen, Managing Editor, on Wed Sep 12, 2012 at 12:30 PM ET
The Politics of Faith
An attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya that killed Ambassador Christopher Stevens last night was originally reported to be fueled by outrage over a film portraying Prophet Muhammed in a negative light. That outrage is now being said to have been a ruse for a planned attack. [WSJ]
American Atheists is suing the the National September 11 Memorial & Museum for displaying the cross made of one of the tower’s T-beams that became a nation symbol after the attacks. [CNN]
Evangelicals are leading a cause to adopt embryos stored in research labs. [Religion News Service]
By John Y. Brown III, on Wed Sep 12, 2012 at 12:00 PM ET
I love Asian restaurants, and I really like the taste of Fortune Cookies.
And, yes, I always read my fortune.
You never know. But lately my vision has declined and I am no longer able to make our my fortune on Fortune Cookies. I can make out a few key words and the beginning or ending clause —but no specifics. Just enough to get a general idea that it is basically good news for me (or something upbeat).
That can be reassuring –but only if you can be certain. My idea is that an especially big Fortune Cookie be created for people over 45. It’s more about the cookie for us. And instead of large print with a long quote, just have a large thumbs up or thumbs down.
That’s all we want at this age. Details aggravate and confuse us.
I don’t care If my fortune is about travel, finances, business, health, whatever. The only news I want from my Fortune Cookie is whether things are looking good for me or not.
