By Jonathan Miller, on Thu Nov 8, 2012 at 9:12 AM ET
New Electoral College Map 2012
Even more than the actual tallies of Tuesday’s elections, the world has been anxiously awaiting the results of the First Quadrennial Recovering Politician Electoral College Contest.
Because recounts are very likely, particularly in Congressional races, to calculate the winners, I will use the vote tallies that are listed in the print edition of Thursday morning, November 8 New York Times. While these tallies will undoubtedly be incomplete for many races, and winners will not be declared in several campaigns, whoever is leading as of the Thursday morning tally will be the winner for the purposes of determine our champion.
November 8 has arrived. And according to the latest New York Times tallies, these would be the final results of the 2012 elections, should those who currently lead in the vote tallies prevail:
(Drum roll, please…)
Read the rest of… First Quadrennial RP Electoral College Contest Results
By Jonathan Miller, on Mon Nov 5, 2012 at 8:30 AM ET
(Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)
If you haven’t entered the First Quadrennial Recovering Politician Electoral College Contest, you’ve got until tomorrow, Tuesday at 6:00 AM EST. Here are the details for your chance to win 2 FREE lower-arena tickets to the defending national champion University of Kentucky Wildcat basketball team’s official home opener at Lexington’s Rupp Arena, versus Lafayette University, on Friday, November 16 at 7:00 PM. Remember, the first step is to become a member of the RP’s new Facebook page, Facebook.com/RecoveringPol, and provide your predictions in the post marked “Designated RP Electoral College Contest Post.” The award will be presented to the individual who most accurately predicts the final Electoral College vote, with tiebreakers of predicting the Senate and Housr partisan compositions after the election.
The 2008 Electoral College Map
As a service to all of you procrastinators out there, our experts — contributing RPs and friends of RP — have weighed in on their predictions. You can choose to go with one of their picks, or stick with your own and feel smarter than a recovering politician.
So here goes. Feel free to comment below, but remember according to the rules, only comments at the Designated RP Electoral College Contest Post at the RP Facebook page will be qualified for the grand prize.
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The RP: Obama 303, Romney 235. (Obama wins WI, NV, IA, NH, CO, VA and OH; Romney squeaks out the narrowest victory in FL); Senate: 50 Dems, 48 GOP, 2 Indy; House: 239 GOP, 196 Dems
Contributing RP Rod Jetton:
President– Romney 277 and Obama 261. Romney takes the true toss ups of NH, CO, IA and WI, while holding the safer states of FL, NC and VA. Obama keeps OH, MN, MI, NV and PA. The auto bailout keeps Obama with Ohio, but Ryan and the debates help Romney hold WI which Ohio is not required on their path to victory. PA will be close but O will hold on there. R wins popular vote 52-48. With unemployment at 7.9% and even worse, gas prices up over $3.50, it is amazing that any incumbent could even keep it close. When we add in how Obama seemed to have a bit of the Bush 42 attitude of not really wanting to mess with a re-election campaign plus the Libya debacle it is hard to see Obama winning. Romney is a solid steady campaigner that nobody loves, but he has a good resume and seems to be up to the job of fixing the economy.
Senate– D-52 and R-46. (I-2) The Republicans will pick up a few seats but the weak candidates will keep them from taking the majority. My state of Missouri is a good example of that. McCaskill was in bad shape and should have been defeated in 2012 but with all Akin’s messaging problems she is poised to survive.
House – R-237 and D- 198. There will not be a big change in the House and Romney’s debates and October surge will help Republicans down ticket in many of the battleground seats.
Jordan Stivers (Friend of RP): Obama 280, Romney 258; Senate: R-47, D – 51, I-2; House: R-237, D-198
Contributing RP John Y. Brown, III: Election Day will be followed by Wednesday….and, if all goes as planned, followed by Thursday. Short of cataclysmic fallout on Tuesday night, Thursday more than likely will be followed by Friday. And then we will probably see something resembling what we used to call “the weekend.”
Friend of RP Zac Byer (traveling with VP GOP nominee Paul Ryan): My head still says Romney tops out at 256, but after visiting 6 swing states in the last 56 hours, and my gut says otherwise: Romney: 277, Obama: 261; 51 D, 47 R, 2 I; 238 R, 197 D
Contributing RP Jeff Smith: Obama 277, Romney 261; Senate: R-48, D – 50+2I; House: R-240, D-195
Ron Granieri (Friend of RP): Obama: 280, Romney: 258; Senate: 51-49 Dems (with independents); House: 245-190 Reps
Contributing RP Nick Paleologos: Obama 275. Romney 263.
Contributing RP Jimmy Dahroug: Obama 275, Romney 263; Senate: Dems 51 GOP 47; 2 Indy; House: GOP 241 Dems 194
David Snyder (Friend of RP): Obama wins 290-248. Senate – 51 Democrats 47 Republicans, 2 Independents. House – 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats
Contributing RP Greg Harris: Obama: 332, Romney: 206 (Polls indicate presidential race is neck and neck among “likely” voters. Obama’s lead is greater among “registered” voters. These votes, under-represented in polling, will redound to Obama’s advantage in states like FL and CO.); Senate: R-44, D – 54, I – 2; House: R-232, D-203
Obama’s record speaks for itself. Look at the numbers, not the tone of his speeches, which have no substance.
In the third debate, Obama appeared strong and spoke well. However, it was all tone. Read the transcript straight, see what they both say, their plans.
Romney has a strong plan. Obama has no plan, but he speaks with such a tone of his own grandiosity, that tone has an affect to the naive public. In truth, his whole speach, Obama just bashed Romney.
It was actually amazing to see Romney stand there and spell out his plan and then Obama talks and he first thing he says is, ” he is not going too that”. It was a very strange response.
But, then again, Obama has had a failed record with nothing to talk about for the last four years so he bashes Romney.
They say that the best defense is an offense, that is a tactic that Obama has had a lot of practice doing. Please look at the debt numbers. The food stamp numbers, the unemployed numbers, and more, from 2008 to 2012.
We were in bad shape in 2008. When Obama took office, we were 8 trillion in debt. Obama promised he would cut that in half to 4 trillion. Obama also stated that if he didn’t then he did not deserve to be re elected. The debt now stands at over 14 Trillion! Food stamps and unemployed numbers have increased by many, many millions of Americans. Check out unbiased true Facts. Check out the real numbers look at other sites, Google it. You owe it to be true to yourself and to iur Country.
By Nick Paleologos, on Fri Nov 2, 2012 at 10:00 AM ET
Everybody says the country is polarized. Really? It seems that everybody pretty much agrees on the following:
DEFENSE SPENDING:
1) Our troops should be the best trained and best equipped in the world.
2) The various branches of our military should not be competing against each other for resources but preparing instead to fight increasingly sophisticated threats to our national security.
3) Our allies should be paying their fair share of the cost of defending freedom around the world.
DOMESTIC SPENDING:
1) Social Security is good. But Warren Buffet should have to pay the same percentage of his total income into Social Security as the rest of us. And if the retirement age also has to go up a year or two in order to make the system solvent over time, we’re fine with that.
2) Medicare and Medicaid are also good. But each needs to be run better—and by that we mean cheaper. As far as national health care is concerned, let’s stop fooling around. Requiring businesses to pay for health care is ridiculous. It’s a huge drag on their ability to grow and to create new jobs. Basic health care (just like education) should be the birthright of every US citizen. Smart and healthy citizens make for a stronger and more competitive country. Fear of destitution from illness, on the other hand, makes us less entrepreneurial and less productive. The best thing we can do for this economy is to take the cost of health care off the backs of our job creators, and instead have everybody chip in.
3) Education? Don’t get me started. Every kid in America—regardless of income—goes to school. And that’s a good thing. So why stop at high school? If you’re smart enough to cut it, the country needs you to go to college. Period. But let’s face it. Colleges have been jacking up tuitions on the back of government guaranteed student loans for way too long. No college—public or private—should be eligible for any taxpayer funds of any kind (direct or indirect) unless they can prove they have a needs blind admission policy. That is, the kids they accept are allowed to attend—even if their parents can’t afford the full freight. And when colleges complain, the answer is simple. You’re supposed to be smart. Figure it out!
PUBLIC TELEVISION:
1) We get a much better bang for the buck from Big Bird, than from Big Oil.
Read the rest of… Nick Paleologos: A Closing Argument for Obama — Tough Choices? Gimme a Break!
Greetings and thank you for the opportunity to express myself in an open manner. I don’t think what I have to say is what you’re looking for, as I am truly undecided in my decision for who should be the next president of our great country. I am not undecided for lack of knowledge of both of the main candidates, nor the third party candidates, as I also watched the third party debates moderated by Larry King and will be watching the final debate on Nov. 5 as well between Gov. Gary Johnson and Dr. Jill Stein. I am undecided because of a lack of information from all candidates because I have not heard any of them speak in support of a minority of people such as myself; the self employed independent contractor. Though I know this isn’t a closing statement, this is more of wanting to find out what all candidates have to say about the hard working self employed, one person businessman, so I will write my viewpoint to you.
First, let me begin by stating that I live in Virginia, and am an independent contractor, teaching the joy of music to the young through elderly in a small, local music store. I am responsible for paying my own taxes, and receive a 1099 at the end of the year. I have heard plenty about the middle and upper class, but I really don’t make enough money to be in either of those brackets. My income is in the poverty bracket, especially factoring in that I have a daughter in high school, and my wife is a cancer patient. We rely on my income to pay the bills, and had to apply for food stamps to try to make ends meet. This is the first time in my life that I’ve had to resort to this, and I’m not proud of the fact. In this area, I see a weakness in the President, as more and more families have had to go this route, and now I find myself in the same position. Neither the President or Governor Romney has mentioned the independent contractor, and I feel it is because we are such a small minority that our votes don’t matter to them, since we can’t help them win, which in turn, makes me feel that we aren’t in the numbers for economic growth. So neither of the forerunners have anything to make me feel secure in voting for them. The ACA presents a double jeopardy for me, as I can’t afford healthcare and will face a financial penalty for not having it. That takes away another point for the President, who has forced me into this predicament.
The only candidate that seems helpful for my situation is Governor Johnson, who wants to abolish the IRS, which would help me tremendously, and sadly he has no chance in winning. I like to say that our colors are Red, White, and Blue, but our only options are Red and Blue, due to PACS and SuperPacs pouring money to help them win. Third Party candidates should be equally represented as the White in a true democracy, where ethics rule over money. The debates should be open to all candidates on the ballot, so that the voters can make a truly informed decision come election day. Money shouldn’t be the deciding factor, but character, vision, wisdom and knowledge should be what we are voting for, representing the best of ALL candidates on the ballot. In this scenario, I see Governor Johnson as the best choice for me. I also agree with him and Jill that Marijuana should be legalized, regulated, and taxed in the same manner as alcohol, reducing the cost of jailing offenders that are not criminals, except for the current laws regarding Marijuana. This would generate a lot of revenue that would be a part of an economic recovery.
It’s a sad time for me, and I don’t see the election changing anything for my circumstances. I do plan on voting, and from what I’ve written to you, it appears that through writing, my choice would have to be for Governor Johnson, though it would be a vote for my integrity, and not helping to elect the next president, so my decision would have to be for what I believe in, or voting for one of the forerunners that I feel would be the less of two evils, knowing that neither would help my situation.
I could go on, but I know have gone well over my 1,000 words, and I know they aren’t a closing statement for any particular candidate, but this issue is nonexistent in the race for the White House.
By Jonathan Miller, on Thu Nov 1, 2012 at 10:00 AM ET
No Labels co-founder, and former U.S. Comptroller General, David Walker, shares the scariest part of this year’s Halloween celebration: the monster math:
By Nick Paleologos, on Thu Nov 1, 2012 at 9:15 AM ET
We are very excited to introduce our newest contributing RP, Nick Paleologos. Nick was a Member of the Massachusetts House of Representatives for 16 years, and has since become a Tony and Emmy award winning theatre and film producer. We hope you enjoy his first piece, and many more in the weeks to come.
When I was a kid, I was blissfully unaware of the bone-crushing depression my dad lived through. He grew up on the hardscrabble streets of Lowell, Massachusetts—the son of Greek immigrant parents who were living in a cold-water flat known then (and now) as “The Acre.”
My dad (at far right in photo) was nine years old when Franklin Roosevelt beat Herbert Hoover for president in 1932. Hoover was a handsome guy who made a ton of money in the mining industry. By 1914, Hoover was so wealthy he was actually quoted as saying “If a man has not made a million dollars by the time he is forty, he is not worth much.”
The country clearly agreed. Between 1921 and 1929 (the first year of Hoover’s presidency) the top income tax rate for worthy millionaires like himself was slashed from 73% to 24%. Result? The Great Depression. By the time Roosevelt took over from Hoover, unemployment was at 25%, two million Americans were flat-out homeless, and all the banks in 32 of the 48 states (including the NY Federal Reserve) had slammed the doors shut on their depositors.
On Saturday afternoon March 4, 1933 Roosevelt gave his first inaugural address. Everybody in America (including my dad) was huddled around the radio waiting to hear what the new president had to say:
“This is the time to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly…This great Nation… will revive and will prosper. So…let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.”
You’re right. I am afraid.
“Values have shrunken to fantastic levels; our ability to pay has fallen; government of all kinds is faced by serious curtailment of income; the savings of many years in thousands of families are gone. More important, a host of unemployed citizens face the grim problem of existence, and an equally great number toil with little return. Only a foolish optimist can deny the dark realities of the moment.”
How did this happen?
“Primarily this is because the rulers of the exchange of mankind’s goods have failed, through their own stubbornness and their own incompetence…Practices of the unscrupulous money changers stand indicted in the court of public opinion, rejected by the hearts and minds of men.”
What can we do?
“…there must be a strict supervision of all banking and credits and investments; there must be an end to speculation with other people’s money, and there must be provision for an adequate but sound currency. Through this program of action we address ourselves to putting our own national house in order and making income balance outgo.”
Does that mean we all might have to pay a little more?
“If I read the temper of our people correctly, we now realize—as we have never realized before—our interdependence on each other; that we can not merely take but we must give as well; that if we are to go forward, we must move as a trained and loyal army willing to sacrifice for the good of a common discipline, because without such discipline no progress is made, no leadership becomes effective. We are, I know, ready and willing to submit our lives and property to such discipline, because it makes possible a leadership which aims at a larger good.”
That’s what Franklin Delano Roosevelt told my father and millions of others in 1933. Within a hundred days of that speech, the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) was formed. For the next decade, millions of unemployed young Americans found jobs in national forests and state parks all over America. My dad went to Vermont. It was dependable, physical labor from which the country greatly benefited. For his part, dad earned $30 a month, of which $25 was required to be sent back home to his family.
So when FDR sounded the call to arms in December of 1941, my father was only too happy to return the favor. He signed up to fight for his country in the Pacific. At the end of World War II, when dad stepped off his PT Boat—proud, penniless, and newly unemployed—the president wanted him to go to college. Even though dad could not afford to, FDR believed that going to college was so important for America’s future that he insisted upon the country paying for dad’s education.
Under the GI Bill, dad went to college and became a lawyer. In addition, eight million other veterans went to college, or to vocational training schools, or received low cost mortgages and loans to start businesses. And what a difference they made.
NBC’s Tom Brokaw dubbed them the “Greatest Generation.” But they were really Roosevelt’s Kids. Because the country FDR gave them was built upon his conviction that freedom from fear of destitution was crucial to unleashing America’s limitless potential–a belief that largely prevailed…until 1980.
That was the year that another affable, popular president was elected. In Ronald Reagan’s first inaugural address he took the country in a profoundly different direction.
“In this present crisis” Reagan famously declared, “government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.”
In the three plus decades since that assertion (except for a brief interlude in the 90’s) America returned with a vengeance to the philosophy that characterized the Roaring Twenties: tax cuts for the wealthy, Wall Street run amok, and banks acting more like casinos than caretakers—with the same catastrophic result.
Baby boomers–who grew up in Roosevelt’s America where the cumulative income growth of the bottom 90% outpaced the top 1% by more than four to one—have only recently realized that during the past three decades in Reagan’s America (our working lifetime) the American economy has gone ass over tea kettle in the opposite direction. The top 1% outpaced the bottom 90% by a staggering 25 to 1.
In other words, during the Roosevelt decades (1945 to 1980) as the country got richer, the biggest winner was a rapidly growing middle class. During the Reagan decades (1980 till now) practically all of the wealth created in America ended up in the hands of the top 1%. But don’t take my word for it. Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman stated flatly, “There’s no measure I can think of by which the U.S. economy has done better since 1980 than it did over an equivalent time span before 1980.”
So when the Great Recession ravaged our country between 2008 and 2010 (according to the Federal Reserve) what little wealth left for the middle class during the Reagan decades (mostly home equity) was all but wiped out.
Read the rest of… Nick Paleologos: “The only thing we have to fear…”
By Jonathan Miller, on Thu Nov 1, 2012 at 8:30 AM ET
(Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)
OK, RP Nation: Here is your opportunity to win 2 FREE lower-arena tickets to the defending national champion University of Kentucky Wildcat men’s basketball team’s official home opener at Lexington’s Rupp Arena, versus Lafayette University, on Friday, November 16 at 7:00 PM.
(Note to the uninitiated: This prize is a big deal. If you do not understand how big a deal this is, read Why Kentucky Basketball Matters.)
The award will be presented to the winner of our Electoral College contest — the individual who most accurately predicts the final Electoral College vote, with tiebreakers and stipulations listed below.
To win this prize, you must abide by the following instructions — which will be interpreted literally by the contest judge, me:
The 2008 Electoral College Map
1. Go to The Recovering Politician‘s new RP Facebook Page, Facebook.com/RecoveringPol, If you haven’t already, “Like” the page. No likey — no win.
2. Make your predictions in the Comments section of the “Official Contest Post” at the new RP Facebook Page, which is labeled very clearly as such. Entries sent in by email or posted elsewhere will be disqualified.
3. Only one entry per person. If you have more than one entry, only the most recent one will qualify.
4. Comments must be entered by 6:00 AM EST on Tuesday, November 6. Entries made later will be disqualified.
5. Your entry into the comments section of the Official Contest Post shall include:
Your prediction of the 2012 Electoral College tally. I.e., Obama 269, Romney 269
First tiebreaker: Your prediction of the partisan composition of the Senate for the next session of Congress. I.e., 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans, 2 Independents.
Second tiebreaker: Your prediction of the partisan composition of the House for the next session of Congress. I.e. 230 Republicans, 205 Democrats.
6. Because recounts are very likely, particularly in Congressional races, to calculate the winners, I will use the vote tallies that are listed in the print edition of Thursday morning, November 8 New York Times. While these tallies will undoubtedly be incomplete for many races, and winners will not be declared in several campaigns, whoever is leading as of the Thursday morning tally will be the winner for the purposes of determine our champion.
7. The winner will be awarded my two awesome lower arena tickets (Section 23, Row RR) for the University of Kentucky’s home opener against Lafayette University on Friday, November 16 at 7:00 PM. The winner will make arrangements with me to pick up the tickets or have them placed in will call. Transportation or any incidental costs associated with attending the UK game must be assumed by the winner of the contest. And I ain’t paying for your dinner.
8. I retain the right to make all eligibility decisions and winner calculations, as well as the right to withhold the prize from any obnoxious Duke Blue Devil fan.
By John Y. Brown III, on Wed Oct 31, 2012 at 12:00 PM ET
I was once a millionaire.
Not for long. But for about a year. And I only recently found out about it. Even though it happened some 40 years ago, I find myself reflecting a lot recently on that year—“My Big Year.” And asking myself, what went wrong and what can I learn from it?
In 1971 my father sold his controlling interest in Kentucky Fried Chicken. He made a good deal of money and, as the story goes,
created a $1M trust for each of his three children, my two sisters (Sissy and Sandy) and me.
Which was a surprise hearing about all these years later since my father reminded us regularly growing up that he didn’t believe in giving his children money because it would take away their motivation. But this one time, he apparently did. (In my teens I once suggested he test his theory by doing a pilot project with me as the one child who gets money–and my two sisters as the control groups— and see how I do. “If I fail,” I reasoned, “you can continue with your current policy and be reassured by recent supporting data that you are doing the right thing.” But all I got was a laugh.)
Anyway, I was 8 years old at the time and totally oblivious to the fact that I was a millionaire. At least I was “on paper,” as a lot of millionaires seem to be fond of saying. I’m not sure what that means but I like the sound of it and so I’m repeating it here.
Read the rest of… John Y’s Musings from the Middle: I Once Was a Millionaire
Closing arguments for President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney should contrast their respective records and declared agendas. But that’s not enough. Each candidate lives and breathes in a political party ecosystem with a dominant worldview and armies of enforcers to keep office-holders, even presidents, from straying too far from received doctrine.
Let’s start with the President’s record. He was sworn in facing the worst economic conditions in 80 years, and with only three Republican votes enacted an economic stimulus agenda that saved or created 1.4 to 3.3 million jobs. The stimulus worked. He saved General Motors and Chrysler from collapse, signed Wall Street reform legislation and, to top it off, drove through Congress the most important health care reform since the 1960s. He brought our troops back from Iraq as promised. Obama rang up historic accomplishments in the teeth of fierce Republican opposition even to proposals (like Obamacare) with a strong Heritage Foundation roots.
In a second term President Obama is committed to further spending restraint and entitlement reform as long as the deficit-expanding Bush tax cuts are, for the super-wealthy, repealed. He’ll make immigration reform and strengthening America’s education system important priorities.
Mitt Romney’s rhetoric reflects the right-wing fear of “dependency” if Americans choose to tackle our pressing public challenges through government action. Since the goal is for government to spend and do less, it’s no wonder that he promises big tax cuts for everyone and “big change” without explaining what he means. But we should look beyond the rhetoric.
The ideas, bundled into worldviews, which define the parties today will shape the administration of the winner on November 6th.
For most congressional Republicans today and their active supporters, government routinely infringes upon personal liberty, undermines self-reliance and is generally inefficient and incompetent. Since government is the problem, taxes should be cut, regulations reduced and—somehow—all be well in time. How that will happen is a matter of faith, not evidence. Republicans would roll back health care coverage for more than 30 million Americans who will finally obtain it through “Obamacare.” They deny the overwhelming scientific consensus about the threat of climate change. The economic plan consists of vague “free market” generalities.
People who don’t believe in government don’t run it well. That’s one lesson from the George W. Bush administration. That’s why, given the enormous challenges of making the federal government work well, it should be left in the hands of those who are willing to try.
Read the rest of… Tom Allen: A Closing Argument for Obama