First Quadrennial RP Electoral College Contest Results

New Electoral College Map 2012

Even more than the actual tallies of Tuesday’s elections, the world has been anxiously awaiting the results of the First Quadrennial Recovering Politician Electoral College Contest.

Well, it is your lucky hour….

Just under 100 official entrants and contributing RPs submitted their predictions of:

• The 2012 Electoral College tally.  I.e., Obama 269, Romney 269
• The  partisan composition of the Senate for the next session of Congress.  I.e., 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans, 2 Independents.
• The partisan composition of the House for the next session of Congress.  I.e. 230 Republicans, 205 Democrats.

As discussed here in the official rules:

Because recounts are very likely, particularly in Congressional races, to calculate the winners, I will use the vote tallies that are listed in the print edition of Thursday morning, November 8 New York Times.  While these tallies will undoubtedly be incomplete for many races, and winners will not be declared in several campaigns, whoever is leading as of the Thursday morning tally will be the winner for the purposes of determine our champion.

November 8 has arrived.  And according to the latest New York Times tallies, these would be the final results of the 2012 elections, should those who currently lead in the vote tallies prevail:

(Drum roll, please…)

Electoral College:  332 Obama, 206 Romney  (While not declared officially, Obama leads in Florida)

U.S. Senate:  53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, 2 Independents

U.S. House: 235 Republicans, 200 Democrats (The official tally is 233-193; 2 GOP and 7 Dem candidates lead the undeclared races)

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The following contest entrants correctly predicted the 332-206 electoral tally:  Robert Kahne, Kevin Whitehead, Joe Sonka, and Eric Hussein Polsgrove

So did the following RP contributors: Greg Harris and Steven Schulman (the latter entered: “Whatever Nate Silver says” — and 332 was Silver’s prediction)

From the 6 correct Electoral College entrants came the following Senate predictions:

• Kahne: 51-47-2
• Whitehead: 52-46-2
• Sonka: 52-46-2
• Polsgrove: 51-47-2
• Harris: 54-44-2
• Schulman/Silver: 51-47-2

While no one hit the mark of 53-45-2, Whitehead, Sonka and Harris each were 1 off and reach the final tiebreaker.

And their House predictions?

• Whitehead: 238-197
• Sonka: 230-205
• Harris: 232-203

No one precisely hit the final composition of 235-200, but Whitehead and Harris were the closest, each 3 off the mark.

So Mazel Tov to Kevin Whitehead and Greg Harris!

And a extra Simon Tov to Kevin Whitehead, who as the official entrant with the most accurate picks, wins the 2 lower arena tickets to the University of Kentucky men’s basketball home opener on November 16.