New GDP numbers were released last week. For the first time since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009, the economy actually shrank. And things were just starting to look pretty solid! What the heck happened? You know, I actually think the Gipper may have an answer here.
Yeah. Pretty much. Look deeper at the GDP numbers and it becomes clear that government really is the problem here. Consumer spending was up. Business spending on equipment was way up and housing investment was also way up. Sooo…. What gives?
Defense spending in particular was dramatically pared back in the last months of 2012. Businesses also depleted their inventories but that’s no big deal since consumer spending was up and they’ll have to restock at some point. The real story here is cuts in federal spending. This is what austerity looks like, my friends. At a time when our recovery is still on shaky legs, cuts in federal spending could easily send us right back into a recessionary tailspin. In fact, if federal spending had just remained even, we would have had over 1% growth. Not amazing but positive territory.
But you might say, this is probably a one-time deal right? After all, we had the whole fiscal cliff situation and they were probably preparing for the sequester cuts that were supposed to take effect in January.
That’s all true but it’s also not the whole story. Take a look at this chart. Since the beginning of 2009, the private sector has been in positive territory, consistently contributing to economic growth. Meanwhile the private sector has mostly been a drag with this final quarter being one of the most dramatic examples.
What’s more, we’ve just ended the payroll tax cut so middle-class folks will have less money in their pockets and may very well start spending less. We’ve also still got large sequester cuts on the horizon that could drive public spending down even further, and Republicans still seem to think it might be fun to use a government shutdown or debt ceiling crisis to force further cuts. You guys sure know how to show a girl a good time.
Look, there’s no question that over the long term, we’ve got to balance budgets and pay down our debts. But short term deficit hawkishness is hurting us badly. Our problem is not relief for storm victims or Federal money for family planning services, it’s a tax base that is too low to support rising health care costs and an aging population over the long term. Let’s deal with those problems over the long term. But for now, Congress, how about we just try to avoid shooting ourselves in the foot. I know blaming government for a lack of spending is not the type of blaming government that the GOP enjoys, but in lean times it’s the only type of blaming government we can afford. You know, what would really be great is some stimulus but I understand that’s probably too much to ask. For now, let’s just keep the government from reversing the private sector-led recovery that’s already underway.
By John Y. Brown III, on Mon Feb 4, 2013 at 12:00 PM ET
A kinder, gentler Breaking Bad?
I love this series but it can be over-the-top with fringe plot developments and crazy characters as the mild mannered former high school chemistry teacher, Walter White, becomes a successful meth dealer.
I was wondered the other night what it might look like if Breaking Bad had been written with a more mainstream and gentler, kinder theme. Maybe call it, “Veering incautiously” instead of the rogue sounding “Breaking Bad.” And instead of making Walter White an ever-hardening meth dealer, write a more mainstream method for handling his personal crisis. What if, for example, instead of cooking and selling meth, Walter instead became a celebrated shoe cobbler (selling custom made and hand crafted suede shoes that become very popular in some circles)?
Sure the series may have a different feel and tone, but would it also be more plausible? Would it widen potential audience appeal since more people can identify with shoe-makers than meth dealers?
Here’s a video clip giving us a peek of what this series might have looked like as Walter sells a pair of blue suede shoes to internationally known shoe fashion designer Tuco Salamanaca. (Just imagine shoes and not methamphetamine is being transacted in this scene.) Tuco is renown for his exacting taste and relentless drive for perfection in his shoe line. Despite being skeptical about Walter at first—and being obviously flustered that the shoes he tries on are too “tight” —Tuco is still won over by Walter’s attention to detail and skilled craftsmanship. In fact, so much so, Tuco buys them on the spot (even though they are an unusual “blue” shade) and suggests future purchases for his shoe line in pink and yellow.
But there is still the critical question, Would the series work as well with Walter as shoe cobbler —or is something lost.
Warning: Foul language even though we are pretending they are talking about shoe design.
But remember, the high end shoe market is a brutally competitive business. So this scene may not be too far off the mark. ; )
By Erica and Matt Chua, on Mon Feb 4, 2013 at 10:00 AM ET
How much does it cost to travel the world for a year? Between $26,821-36,534 for two people*. In 2012 we spent $26,821**. In 2011 we spent $36,534***.
As always, the devil is in the details, those asterisks that terrorize our lives…those evil symbols that advertisers have trained us to recognize as “it’s possible, but only for a hypothetical person that we’ve never actually met, who managed to work through our very convoluted systems that our programmers assured us wasn’t possible”. Our numbers though are real, it’s what we’ve actually spent, visiting countries as expensive as Japan and Australia, and as cheap as Vietnam and Sri Lanka. This is every dollar we’ve spent traveling hundreds of thousands of miles. The asterisks are because everyone travels differently, these differences are the details that determine how much it would actually cost you.
HOW WE TRAVEL
We travel to see the sights, meet the people, taste the foods and try new things. We keep a budget as a guide, not as a limiter. Our costs reflect the following decisions:
– The length of our trip has never been a goal, we aren’t trying to stretch our time abroad by staying places for extended periods or saving money.
– We travel overland whenever possible. Grueling at times, overland travel has given us the opportunity to see more of countries, savor the local foods and interact with locals the way they travel. How else would you experience this!?!
We met Amit by overland traveling in India. Later he showed us Israel, this “Amit” tour was one of our 2012 highlights.
– Hostels and Couchsurfing are home. We stay in dorms when private rooms cost substantially more. We only Couchsurf when we can connect with a host, not just to save money.
– We average a new city every four days. We set off with the goal of seeing whatever interested us in the world, having visited over 200 cities we learned that a lot of the world interested us. Moving costs money as shown by transportation (ground and air) being our largest area of spending.
– We didn’t visit Europe or North America. Our costs reflect a vast majority of time spent in the developing world, which is substantially cheaper than Europe, the USA or Canada. We set off with very few goals, but number one was to see the rapidly changing developing world, we have keep true to this mission.
These are the things that affect our spending, for everyone it is different. We’ve met people that are comfortable spending $20/day and people that couldn’t possibly be comfortable for less than $1000/day.
Read the rest of… Matt and Erica Chua: Cost to Travel the World
By John Y. Brown III, on Mon Feb 4, 2013 at 9:15 AM ET
From wardrobe malfunctions to Beyonce’s half-time show with more highlights than the first or second half, some are claiming the NFL is starting to use too much sex to sell football.
Starting?
Hmmm. I am old enough to recall this little Super Bowl commercial from the early 1970s.
It didn’t warp me or cause me to buy Noxema. Or to become a bigger Joe Namath fan.
It did to me becoming a Charlie’s Angels fan a few years later at age 13.
===
I have a confession to make.
You know how some people say that for many women going to the Kentucky Derby is all about the hats?
Well….I have a similar dirty little secret.
I watch the Super Bowl mostly for the commercials.
Then the football.
And then the hats.
===
My personal Super Bowl story.
It wasn’t way back when. Actually, it was year ago last January. The NFL had helped successfully pass anti-concussion legislation in over 30 states (mostly states with NFL teams) and now was going to the remaining states hoping to make a clean sweep on this important health issue for our student-athletes. Kentucky was selected because the timing seemed ripe.
Read the rest of… John Y. Brown, III: Super Bowl Wrap Up
KET’s February 4 Kentucky Tonight program with host Bill Goodman will discuss industrial hemp.
Scheduled guests are:
– Kentucky Agriculture Commissioner James Comer
– Kentucky State Police Commissioner Rodney Brewer
– Former Kentucky State Treasurer Jonathan Miller, founder of The Recovering Politician
– Dan Smoot, vice president of Operation UNITE
The program is live on KET and at www.ket.org/live at 8:00 pm ET.
Viewers with questions and comments may send e-mail to kytonight@ket.org or use the message form at www.ket.org/kytonight. Viewers may also submit questions and comments on Twitter @BillKET, #kytonight, or on KET’s Facebook page. All messages should include first and last name and town or county. The phone number for viewer calls during the program is 1-800-494-7605.
Kentucky Tonight programs are archived online, made available via podcast, and rebroadcast on KET, KET KY, and radio. Archived programs, information about podcasts, and broadcast schedules are available at www.ket.org/kytonight.
By Patrick Derocher, on Fri Feb 1, 2013 at 3:00 PM ET
Immigration seems to be doing some odd things to the conservative movement. Following this week’s reveal of a bipartisan reform outline in the Senate, public and press attention shifted quickly to Marco Rubio, the Florida Republican who is more than a little bit of a rock star in conservative circles. This plan represents the culmination of a major shift in Sen. Rubio’s position– when running for Senate just two years ago, he had dismissed the idea of granting much of anything in the way of citizenship or related rights to illegal immigrants. (Incidentally, while in the Florida House of Representatives, Rubio proposed a DREAM Act-esque plan that would have cut tuition for undocumented students.) Conservative media figures, among them Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh, responded positively, especially considered that the Senate plan involves a path to citizenship, which many on the right believe to be tantamount to amnesty (and we all know how Rush feels about that). So we can be forgiven for thinking that the conservative base may be falling in line with some form of comprehensive immigration.
Not so fast. After an interview with Rubio this past Tuesday (which was, by all accounts, a smashing success for the Senator), Rush felt compelled to post this clarification on his Web site (warning: full transcript ahead). Key quote: “nobody else has the guts to criticize Obama, and that’s what I was praising him for. I was not signaling that he converted me to amnesty.” And there’s the problem. For many on the right, including a large number of primary voters, anything approaching amnesty is heretical, as evidenced by major backlash in 2006-7 and continued unease with comprehensive reform. This, of course, runs right into the strong, almost fervent support Rubio has built up in conservative circles in recent years. It’s a tricky balancing act for the conservatives and the Republican Party, and no matter how it plays out, things will get interesting.
Yesterday, the United States Senate passed No Budget, No Pay in addition to a three-month extension of the debt ceiling.
“For more than a year and a half, I’ve fought for ‘No Budget, No Pay,’ as a common-sense approach to hold Members of Congress accountable for passing a budget. Despite the odds, this idea has gained strong bipartisan support in Congress. Thank you to Representative Jim Cooper for spearheading this effort in the House, and to No Labels supporters from all over the country who wrote to their Members of Congress in support of this idea. With their help, No Budget, No Pay gained the momentum necessary to pass both chambers,” said Senator Dean Heller (R-NV).
The original No Budget, No Pay bills were introduced by Senator Heller and Representative Jim Cooper (D-TN). With support from No Labels’ hundreds of thousands of supporters, No Budget, No Pay garnered more than 90 co-sponsors and a hearing in the Senate in the 112th Congress. Details of today’s Senate-passed version of No Budget, No Pay differ slightly from No Labels’ original proposal, but the underlying idea is the same: members of Congress shouldn’t be paid if they can’t pass a budget on time.
“No Budget, No Pay is a great example of the achievable and immediate reform that No Labels has been pushing since its inception,” said No Labels National Leader and Honorary Co-Chair Jon Huntsman. “Like the filibuster reform that just passed the Senate, No Budget, No Pay can help our government work better right now. Our country’s problems are urgent and we simply don’t have time to wait.”
“The passage of No Budget, No Pay by both chambers is unprecedented. Americans want Congress to be held accountable, and due to the fact that Senate leaders have indicated that they will pass a budget this year, it is clear that No Budget, No Pay has already had a behavioral effect. The No Labels grassroots supporters made this happen,” said No Labels co-founder and Brookings Institution Senior Fellow in Governance Studies,Bill Galston.
By John Y. Brown III, on Fri Feb 1, 2013 at 12:00 PM ET
“You look just like…”
I have never liked hearing this sentence and I suspect most people don’t. It means someone else out there in the universe is basically a carbon copy of you and, hence, one of your is unnecessary. Or at least you aren’t as special or unique, a feeling we all like to have.
I had someone tell me yesterday, “I can’t remember the person’s name….Oh, the name doesn’t even matter. But you (speaking to me) look so much like this guy…..(Pause)
Actually, it’s a silhouette of a generic male. I know that sounds nondescript and dull. And may even sound like an insult but I don’t mean it that way. It’s just whenever I see you, I think of that black silhouette image of a generic person. There’s just something about you that reminds me of this image….It’s so odd. And really uncanny”
OK. That really didn’t happen to me.
And I hope it never does.
I can deal with being told I look like a real person. But when I am ….it sometimes feels as uninspiring little like this imaginary interaction.
Q: I’m a veteran lobbyist in a midsize state. I have a client I’ve represented for six years. Decent client, pays fine, nothing to write home about. Now a large firm that is typically on the other side of things wants to hire me away—for twice the money. What should I do?
—Initials and Location Withheld
Good question. Depends on your financial circumstances and the value you place on your professional reputation, loyalty and your principles—assuming you have them. Let’s go one at a time:
1) Do you need the money badly? Is your practice struggling? Do you have a family to support? Start at 0 and add 1 point for each “yes.”
2) How important to you is the respect of your peers?
“Very” = subtract 2
“Somewhat” = subtract 1
“Not very important” = 0
3) Do you think loyalty is an extremely important trait, a somewhat important trait or a not very important trait in a lobbyist?
“Very” = subtract 2
“Somewhat” = subtract 1
“Not very important” = 0
4) Do you think it’s very important, somewhat important or unimportant to agree with your clients’ view?
“Very” = subtract 2
“Somewhat” = subtract 1
“Unimportant” = Do Not Pass Go: Proceed directly to “Free Parking” in the office of your new client.
Tally your points. If you have a positive number, take the new client and drop the old one. If you have a negative number, stand pat. If you’re at 0, flip a coin.
While we’re on the subject, a Missouri lobbyist named Brian Grace just issued a challenge to his corridor colleagues: Take on one nonprofit group pro bono as a client. Should you decide to switch teams, I recommend that as a way to ease your conscience.
Q: Okay, I know you usually do questions from politicians, but how about politicians’ spouses? Here’s my question: My husband just got elected to the state Legislature. I’ve heard it’s a cesspool up there. And I’ve already caught him checking out one of his interns as she was walking away from him. Let me be honest: I love him, but he’s not a great-looking guy and so I probably shouldn’t worry. Or should I?
—E.B., Location Withheld
Yes, you should worry. He’s got three strikes against him already: 1) He’s got enough of an ego to seek office, which suggests that he probably enjoys attention; 2) You caught him ogling his intern; and 3) He’s not very good-looking. You’ve misinterpreted No. 3. You think that because of his homeliness, he won’t be able to attract women up there? I can promise you, it won’t matter. Handsome pols/athletes/movie stars are probably less likely to cheat—they’ve had a lifetime of opportunities for romance. For those who are less attractive, the initial brush with fame may be their first chance for significant romantic opportunities, and thus more difficult to resist.
Kissinger noted that power is the ultimate aphrodisiac. He was referring to the presidency, not the power of a minority party freshman rep in the Wyoming Legislature. But to a 20-year-old sophomore at Casper College, that could be a distinction without a difference. Remember, when you’re a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Whoops, sorry, bad pun.
Read the rest of… Jeff Smith: Do As I Say — A Political Advice Column
Today’s post is courtesy of the queen of romantic planning, Sarah Pease, The Proposal Planner (TM). Whether she’s taking over the flight deck of the Intrepid for an epic proposal, or organizing the perfect picnic in Central Park, Sarah knows what’s what when it comes to making romance happen.
For some, Valentine’s Day is the most romantic day of the year filled with love, red roses and candlelit dinners. For others, it’s a commercialized, manufactured holiday rife with cheesy teddy bears, silk boxer shorts and exorbitantly priced prix fixe menus. Regardless of your opinion, it’s a great excuse for organizing a fun date with your loved one (even if it’s just your most-loved friend!). Here are five of my favorite ideas for Valentine’s Day:
1) For the Wallet-Conscious: Create your own wine tasting. With a little research done online or with your local wine shop, select 2 reds and 2 whites and pair them with cheeses or chocolates. Using a scarf from your closet, conduct an official blind tasting by candlelight. Not only will you expand your knowledge of wines, but you’ll also enjoy the flirty part of blindfolding each other! Budget not an issue? Hire a sommelier to do a private tasting!
2) Starry Night: Research the hours at your local planetarium or night-sky observatory and arrange to have a private tour. Whether you’re strapped into an IMAX seat watching the latest space-themed movie, or gazing at real stars in other galaxies, you’ll be in a romantic mood under all those stars.
3) Love is all Around: Plan an entire evening around love. Meet your sweetheart at the Museum of Sex near the Flatiron Building – who says a museum can’t be fun? Once you’ve explored all the newest exhibits, head to your favorite cocktail bar to sip on the cocktails she loves. From there, treat her to her guilty-pleasure food – is it cheesy biscuits from Red Lobster? Coconut Invasion cake from Asia de Cuba? Tonight is the night to indulge. End the evening by sharing three reasons why you love each other.
4) Futuristic Love: Want to know what the universe has in store for you? Do a psychic reading together! Make an appointment or stop in to see what the crystal ball or tarot cards say. If you really want to tempt fate, try a few different fortune tellers to see if their predictions overlap.
5) Ice Skating and Hot Chocolate: Strap on your skates and join the crowds for a lively spin around the ice rink. If you’re in New York, you can blend in with the tourists in Central Park, Rockefeller Center or Bryant Park, or discover some of the smaller rinks around the city. Reward all of your activity with a cab ride to City Bakery and test out the “drinkable chocolate” of the day. Got a sweet tooth? Plan to come back every other day for the rest of their Hot Chocolate Festival which runs the entire month of February. That way you can try a new flavor every night.
Many thanks to Sarah for sharing her fantastic ideas. For more info on Sarah, check out her website.
And now that you’ve got the best date ever planned, read here for what to wear.
What’s more, we’ve just ended the payroll tax cut so middle-class folks will have less money in their pockets and may very well start spending less. We’ve also still got large sequester cuts on the horizon that could drive public spending down even further, and Republicans still seem to think it might be fun to use a government shutdown or debt ceiling crisis to force further cuts. You guys sure know how to show a girl a good time.
