By Jonathan Miller, on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 3:00 PM ET
As always, Nate Silver cuts through all of the conflicting poll data and screaming head spin to give a true snapshot of the race as it stands today. Here’s an excerpt:
The term “momentum” is used very often in political coverage — but reporters and analysts seldom pause to consider what it means.
Let me tell you what I think it ought to mean: that a body in motion tends to stay in motion. That is, it ought to imply that a candidate is gaining ground in the race — and, furthermore, that he is likely to continue to gain ground.
As a thesis or prediction about how polls behave, this notion is a bit dubious, especially in general elections. In races for the United States Senate, for instance, my research suggests that a candidate who gains ground in the polls in one month (say, from August to September) is no more likely to do so during the next one (from September to October). If anything, the candidate who gains ground in the polls in one month may be more likely to lose ground the next time around.
(Where might there be clearer evidence for momentum, as I’ve defined it? In primaries, especially when there are multiple candidates in the race and voters are behaving tactically in choosing among them. But there is little evidence of it in general elections.)
The way the term “momentum” is applied in practice by the news media, however, it usually refers only to the first part of the clause — meaning simply that a candidate has been gaining ground in the polls, whether or not he might continue to do so. (I’ve used this phrasing plenty of times myself, so I have no real basis to complain about it.)
But there are other times when the notion of momentum is behind the curve — as it probably now is if applied to Mitt Romney’s polling.
Mr. Romney clearly gained ground in the polls in the week or two after the Denver debate, putting himself in a much stronger overall position in the race. However, it seems that he is no longer doing so.
By Jonathan Miller, on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 4:00 PM ET
I feel compelled to interrupt this site’s bi-partisan coverage of the impending 2012 election to address a rumor that has much greater implications that any silly political race:
I am NOT having an affair with soccer star David Beckham.
Let me say it another way to make myself clear, so that there is no room for misinterpreting my statement, and to fully protect the privacy of my family and of David, his Spice Girl wife and his beautiful children:
I have NEVER had sexual relations with that man, Mr. Beckham.
And I beg you to please share this post with all of your friends (Facebook and real), Pinterest, Twitter, Instagram– hell even MySpace, Friendster, fax, and mimeograph (sniff first) the story to everyone you know.
Of course, please be sure to spell my name correctly — there are two ‘A’s and only one ‘O’ and one ‘H’ in Jonathan — and please, please, please be sure to remember the ‘the’ in my Web site TheRecoveringPolitician.com.
Oh, and here’s another poor soul who knows exactly how I am suffering from the false rumors, innuendo, and lack of full public inspection of the issues at hand:
By Zack Adams, RP Staff, on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 10:00 AM ET
This week the Recovering Politician Bowl became the height of parity 8 (!) teams settling in at 4-3, 3 other teams at 3-4, and finally the lowly Bandits bringing up the rear at 1-6. However, in the interest of fairness and honesty, I would be remiss without highlighting the fact that the Bandits have faced the toughest opposition in the league with 714 points scored against them.
Will anyone be able to pull away from the pack in the coming weeks? Stay tuned!
As Barack Obama and Mitt Romney duke it out, several of our contributing RPs — including Krystal Ball, Michael Steele, Jeff Smith, Rod Jetton, Jason Grill, John Y. Bornw, III, and The RP himself — will be providing their live commentary of the debate. Read below.
And you too can join the fun. Simply go to your normal Twitter account and use the hashtag #RecoveringPol. Your tweets will appear below LIVE!
Feel free to interact with the RPs by using their handle (i.e. @JeffSmithMO) in your tweets. They are likely to respond and engage.
<Tweets from @RecoveringPol/rps
After a successful debut of our new virtual debate feature last week during the second presidential debate, we’ve decided to try it again — bigger and better.
Tonight, at 9 PM EDT, when President Obama and Governor Romney square off for the third and final time, more than a half dozen of our contributing RPs — ranging from Michael Steele to Krystal Ball to Jeff Smith to Rod Jetton to Jason Grill to John Y. Brown, III to The RP himself — will be offering their contemporaneous comments via Twitter, and The Recovering Politician’s home page will provide a live feed of their tweets.
Even better, you are asked to join in. Simply go to your own Twitter account, make your statement and be sure to type the hashtag #RecoveringPol somewhere in your tweet. Your tweets will also be broadcast live here at The Recovering Politician. If you agree or disagree with a point a certain RP is making, you are encourage to call them out — type in their handle (i.e. @JeffSmithMO) to your tweet. In all likelihood, they will respond to you.
So, please join us tonight for some fun civil dialogue as the presidential candidates make their final case to the American people.
By Jonathan Miller, on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 9:15 AM ET
Got to give them both kudos for self-deprecation and, frankly, some clever jokes. And let’s give credit where credit is due: Romney was Letterman to Obama’s Leno — funnier, harder-edged, less forumlaic.
Watch them both and judge for yourself: Let us know who you think was funnier in the comments section below:
ICYMI, yesterday afternoon, The RP was the special guest on MSNBC’s hot new afternoon talk show, The Cycle, co-hosted by The RP’s friend — and contributing recovering politician — Krystal Ball.
After Krystal kindly promoted a certain spectacular year-and-a-half-old Web site, The RP gave a spirited defense of No Labels, the grassroots movement he co-founded that now involves more than 500,000 Americans in efforts to promote bi-partisan problem-solving as a means to fix our broken political system.
If you haven’t had the chance, please be sure to check out the No Labels Web site, and if you support their mission, sign on to the important cause.
If you are a fellow fan of MSNBC’s The Cycle who just learned about The Recovering Politician through Jonathan Miller’s appearance on the show this afternoon, we wish you a very hearty welcome!
Don’t forget to check out NoLabels.Org, the web site of the grassroots movement co-founded by Miller (We call him”The RP”) that has brought together more than 500,000 Democrats, Republicans and Independents in critical efforts to promote bi-partisan problem-solving to fix our broken political system.
We also encourage you to surf through The Recovering Politician, a web site dedicated to civil dialogue, led by those who’ve served in the political arena and now are using their experiences to offer lessons to fix our political system. Here’s a sampling of some of our most popular posts and contributors:
MSNBC’s commentary crew is also represented by Michael Steele –whom you also know as the former Lt. Governor of Maryland, as well as the Chairman of the Republican National Committee. Michael has shared with RP readers his vision of the new American Dream, and assessed both President Barack Obama and Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas.
Our most popular writer, hands down, has been contributing RP and former Missouri State Senator Jeff Smith. Jeff’s first piece — the story of his rise into national celebrity, his dramatic fall that resulted in a prison term, and his hopes for redemption — put the RP on the national map, earning recognition from New York magazine’s “Approval Matrix.” Jeff’s followup — about love and sex behind bars — drew in nearly 100,000 readers, literally crashing the Web site. Every few weeks, Jeff offers a political advice column — “Do As I Say” — and just this week, he shares the ugly fate of convicted pedophile Jerry Sandusky as he enters prison.
By Jonathan Miller, on Wed Oct 17, 2012 at 1:30 PM ET
Fascinating article in the latest The Middle East Quarterly written by a friend of mine, David Brog, who is the Executive Director of Christians United for Israel. While the two of us come from a different ideological perspective, I share his concerns about declining support for the Jewish State among my fellow liberals and progressives.
Here’s an excerpt:
Over the years, a series of polls has asked variations of the following question: “With whom do you sympathize more, the Israelis or the Palestinians?” The results increasingly indicate a broad partisan divide with only a minority of Democrats siding with Israel. For example:
A March 2006 Gallup poll found that 72 percent of Republicans and only 47 percent of Democrats sympathized more with the Israelis than the Palestinians.[4]
A July 2006 NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that 81 percent of Republicans and only 43 percent of Democrats sympathized more with Israel than the Arab nations.[5]
A February 2010 Gallup poll found that 85 percent of Republicans and only 48 percent of Democrats sympathized more with the Israelis than the Palestinians.[6]
An October 2011 Quinnipiac poll found that 69 percent of Republicans and only 36 percent of Democrats sympathized more with the Israelis than the Palestinians.[7]
Other measures of support demonstrate an even greater disparity. A March 2010 Zogby International poll, for example, found that 92 percent of Republicans—and only 42 percent of Democrats— had a favorable opinion of Israel.[8]
As Gallup summed up the situation in 2011, “Over the past decade, Republicans have consistently shown greater support than Democrats for Israel; however, the partisan gap has widened.”[9]
For decades, historian Daniel Pipes has been carefully monitoring these trends on the basis of ideology—conservatives vs. liberals—rather than party. In 1984, he concluded that there was no ideological divide, stressing that “conservatism does not predispose an American to favor one side, nor does liberalism.”[10]Writing almost twenty years later in 2003, Pipes recalled his earlier observation and wrote, “Today all that has changed. The Middle East has replaced the Soviet Union as the touchstone of politics and ideology. With increasing clarity, conservatives stand on one side of its issues and liberals on the other.”[11]
As the Atlantic‘s Jeffrey Goldberg observed in April 2011, “Particularly among liberals, Israel’s reputation is waning dramatically.”[12]
By Jonathan Miller, on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 9:00 PM ET
As Barack Obama and Mitt Romney duke it out, several of our contributing RPs — including Krystal Ball, Michael Steele, Jeff Smith, and Rod Jetton — will be providing their live commentary of the debate. Read below.
And you too can join the fun. Simply go to your normal Twitter account and use the hashtag #RecoveringPol. Your tweets will appear below LIVE!
ICYMI, yesterday afternoon, The RP was the special guest on MSNBC’s hot new afternoon talk show, The Cycle, co-hosted by The RP’s friend — and contributing recovering politician — Krystal Ball.
