By Jonathan Miller, on Fri Jul 5, 2013 at 8:49 PM ET Goodluck Jonathan & Badluck Jonathan
For the past few days, I’d been thrilled to see that “Goodluck Jonathan” had been trending all over the world. Of course, I assumed that the global poker fan base had been united in supporting my entry in the World Series of Poker’s “Little One for One Drop” tournament.
Well, it turns out instead that the international community had been appealing to Nigerian ruler Goodluck Jonathan to cancel his planned executions of death row prisoners.
Oh, well.
I really could have used that good luck. Because as I explained in my last post, I was in real big trouble entering Day 2 of the tournament. While I was thrilled to have made it so far, due to an unlucky experience with three Jacks, I was left with only 950 chips. With blinds rising to 300/600., that would mean I would have to go all-in almost immediately.
It turned out that my chance came on the very first hand. Sitting on the button, the table folded around to me. I looked down at a 9 and a 8. Pretty lousy hand, but with only two players left to call me, I had a decent chance of tripling up.
I got one caller. Perfect.
He turned over an 8 and a 5. Excellent. I had a 70% chance of winning.
The dealer turned over the flop and then the turn (the 4th card). I was still ahead, and had a 90% chance of winning.
Then the dealer turned over the river. A 5. Ugh.
I lost, and was busted out of the tournament.
In all, however, it was a terrific ride. And being knocked out, I had the free time to do some interviews of poker pros for my second WSOP-related piece for Newsweek/The Daily Beast. When I got to sit down with both Antonio “The Magician” Esfandiari — one of the hottest players in the game — and T. J. Cloutier — a legend, whose book, Championship No Limit and Pot Limit Hold ’em, taught me how to play tournament poker — I felt like I had won a bracelet.
Of course, I didn’t cash in either tournament I played. But in both, I finished in the top 15%. I’m not among the poker elite. But those finishes, combined with my final table last year, will keep me coming back for more.
So, back to the real world. Stay tuned for my series of pieces on the WSOP in Newsweek/The Daily Beast. And be ready for my next poker adventure, wherever it should take me.
By RP Staff, on Fri Jul 5, 2013 at 12:30 PM ET If want to know first all of the day’s developments about the hottest 2014 campaign in the country, and you haven’t yet subscribed to The RP’s KY Political Brief – prepared every weekday morning by wunderkind Bradford Queen with links to all of the day’s Kentucky political news — WHAT’S A MATTA WIT YOU?!?! Click here to subscribe FOR FREE!
A chock full of all of the latest news on the escalating battle between U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell and his Democratic 2014 challenger, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes from The RP’s KY Political Review:
| GRIMES LOADS – “Alison Lundergan Grimes Hires High-Profile Consultants,” National Journal: “Grimes has brought on veteran Democratic pollster Mark Mellman of the Mellman Group to run her polling operation, a spokesman tells the Hotline. Mark Putnam of the Putnam Group, who produced Grimes’ popular 2011 television ad featuring both of her grandmothers, will handle media. And Andrew Kennedy of Kennedy Communications will serve as a senior adviser. Longtime Kentucky consultant Jonathan Hurst will serve as a spokesman. Hurst has a long history with Grimes, having worked on her 2011 race for Secretary of State and with her father at the state Democratic Party. He was also the state director for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign in 2008. The Clintons reportedly urged Grimes to get into the Senate race and Hurst said they will “absolutely” be involved in the campaign.” [National Journal]THE DICHOTOMY, “Alison Lundergan Grimes: The anti-Ashley Judd?” by MSNBC’s Perry Bacon, Jr.: “The easiest way to describe Alison Lundergan Grimes, the relatively unknown Kentucky secretary of state who announced this week she will take on Mitch McConnell in what could be next year’s marquee Senate campaign, is that she is the anti-Ashley Judd. … While Judd is an avowed liberal who speaks at Planned Parenthood events and has publicly praised “Obamacare,” it’s hard to find any public comment Grimes has made about the law or many other hot-button national issues. Roger Alford, The Associated Press’ correspondent in Frankfort, Kentucky’s capital, noted in a recent piece, “the public record shows little about Grimes’ positions on coal, guns, immigration, abortion, same-sex marriage and federal health care reforms.” Grimes’ most prominent move as secretary of state has been to make it easier for Kentuckians serving in the military abroad to register to vote. … In a state President Obama lost by 23 points in November, the most obvious route for Mitch McConnell to victory would be to link a Democratic candidate to the president. With Judd, that would have been extremely easy; with Grimes, it is much harder. As Alford notes, in an unauthorized recording by liberal activists of a meeting earlier this year between McConnell and his operatives, the Republican’s advisers lamented that Grimes endorsed Obama for president in 2012, but “was too smart to use his name.” Grimes instead said publicly that she supported “our party and our nominee.”” [MSNBC]
SOUND BITE – “McConnell: Race vs Grimes about Issues, influence” by WHAS-TV’s Joe Arnold: “In his first appearance back home since Alison Lundergan Grimes announced her bid to unseat him, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky) painted the Democratic challenger as a “rookie” who would tow the line of national Democrats. “I think all of you know I love a good campaign,” McConnell told reporters after a groundbreaking for the final phase of the 21st Century Parks project. … “And I think we’ll have one that will provide plenty of opportunities for you all over the next year and a half.” Asked about polls that show him vulnerable in the 2014 race, McConnell predicted Grimes’ vulnerabilities will frame the campaign. … “There will be two issues in this race,” McConnell said. “One of them is issues themselves. My opponent, of course, will support the agenda of Barack Obama and Harry Reid. She may try to claim otherwise during the campaign but we all know how that works. She’ll be on board with the effort to implement Obamacare and the War on Coal.”” [WHAS]
—“John Yarmuth on 2014: Mitch McConnell ‘scared’,” POLITICO: “Sen. Mitch McConnell is “scared to death” of running against Alison Lundergan Grimes, Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) said Thursday morning. … “They’re showing how much fear they have about this race because our airwaves are already crammed with negative ads about Allison,” Yarmuth said on MSNBC. “We know he’s scared to death.” … Yarmuth said recent polls have shown it’s going to be a tight race. “Even McConnell’s own pollster has the race within 5 points,” he said. “He knows he’s in for one heck of a fight.”” [POLITICO]
WINNING THE WEB – McConnell’s campaign released late Wednesday its third video in two days. The Senator, in a voiceover, read a verse of “America, The Beautiful” in the 4th of July-themed video. [YouTube]
DAYS UNTIL : Fancy Farm 2013: 29 … Next fundraising deadline: 87 … Primary Election filing deadline: 207 … Fancy Farm 2014: 393 … Ky. 2014 Primary Election day: 319 … 2014 General Election day: 487
NOT NOW : “Democrat Tom FitzGerald decides not to run for U.S. Senate” by H-L’s Jack Brammer – “FitzGerald, in an email late Wednesday, said he has received hundreds of letters, emails and calls of support from across the state since it became public earlier this year that he was considering running for the seat now held by Republican Mitch McConnell of Louisville. He said the idea of leaving almost 30 years of environmental advocacy as director of the Kentucky Resources Council was “exciting and daunting, a little heady and very humbling,” but he realized that with the environmental problems facing Kentuckians “it is not time to step away from my current work.” FitzGerald is a lifelong Democrat who has never run for public office.” [H-L]
PAUL’S PRESCRIPTION – “Rand Paul says Alison Lundergan Grimes should ‘disown the president’,” H-L: “U.S. Sen. Rand Paul suggested Wednesday that Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes should consider disowning President Barack Obama if she hopes to run a competitive race against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. … “I don’t know it will be as competitive as some think it will be,” Paul said Wednesday in a brief news conference after speaking to about 140 people at a Scott County Republican Party Independence Day Luncheon. … “The biggest thing and the hardest part for any Democrat to win in Kentucky for a federal office is that you pretty much have to disown the president,” Paul said.” [H-L]
—JOHN Y. BROWN, III offered his political advice to McConnell & Grimes on July 4th: “To challenger and current Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes: … Alison, you should embrace that you are the endearing and energetic youthful candidate who is very bright and knowledgeable— but also unpredictable. It’s not your youth or political party or campaign style that distinguishes you most for Senator McConnell. It’s the fact that Sen McConnell is the most prepared, disciplined, and predictable politician on the political scene today. …
“As for Senator McConnell, on the other hand, I would suggest running a disciplined tight ship and not taking a day or even several hours for granted. Be light and funny not exasperated and bored with your younger opponent. You must show respect and you must show manners reflective of the sexes in the South. … Be the well oiled, disciplined and well-managed machine you know best how to be—and chip away methodically and relentlessly. …
“The race won’t be about “Hope” or “Staying the course” or a dozen other political clichés. It will likely instead be about something more basic: To stick with what we know (sticking with the status quo) or trying something new (“rolling the dice,” so to speak). And how fitting it is that the race takes place in a state with a deep gambling tradition but today is ambivalent about expanding gaming.” [The RP] |
|
By Jonathan Miller, on Fri Jul 5, 2013 at 10:00 AM ET  So first the good news: I made it to day two of the World Series of Poker’s Little One for One Drop event!
Out of the 4756 players who began the tournament, only 588 of us remain. And the 495 top players will “cash out”: winning at least $1797, with the top prize of $655,000.
And now the bad news: I am in real chip trouble. With only 950 chips remaining, I am probably the shortest stack left in the tournament; and if not, I am pretty close to the bottom. With blinds rising to 300/600 at the next level, I will have to go all-in very quickly, and hope that I either get a good pair of hole cards, or that my bad pair gets lucky on the board. And most likely, even if I prevail that first time, I will have to immediately go back all-in, with the same sort of prayers needed.
I had actually reached 18,000 chips with ten minutes to go before the end of Day 1. Several hours before, I made my first bonehead move of the week — I bluffed all-in against the guy with the nut flush, and was down to 2500. But like last year, I went all in with a Jack/small (last year it was the Jackson Five, this year, it was the Jackson Three — Tito and Jermaine must have been fired from the group). When no Jack appeared on the board, I stood up, thinking I was out, and was told that I had made a straight on the river. And then again, just like last year, I looked down to see a majestic pair of kings in the next hand. I went all-in, and shot up to 8000 chips.
 Damn You Three Jacks! I played great until the very end. I had a pair of jacks, and when the jack of spades appeared on the flop — as well as two other spades — I went all in to keep anyone from chasing a flush. Well, one guy did, and he caught it on the turn.
Damn you Three Jacks!
So I am now left with a tiny stack, and in the need of some incredible luck to survive.
But as they say, that’s poker. And who knows what is in store for me tomorrow? We sit down again at 1:00 PDT (4:00 EDT), and with the need to go all-in pretty quickly, I will know my fate pretty soon. So be sure to follow me on my Facebook Page or, better yet, on Twitter, to check in.
And if the poker gods really are smiling on me tomorrow, check in on this page for summary updates of the tournament and this page for chip counts.
Or if you could care less about me, many of the world’s biggest pros are in the tournament. And so is my math/baseball/politics man crush, Nate Silver. So please join us!
By Jonathan Miller, on Thu Jul 4, 2013 at 10:00 AM ET  The troublemaker It’s all Julie Rath‘s fault.
As you may have read yesterday, our otherwise amazing men’s fashion expert took me to task for dressing like a “dork” at previous World Series of Poker events. Her words:
I don’t mean to be harsh, but the words that come to mind are Fashion Train Wreck.
Jonathan, I suspect your reasoning was to dress like an amateur so the pros would think you were easy prey, but did you also want them (and everyone watching on TV) to think you were a dork? Now of course I know you are NOT a dork, but please make a note for future reference, wearing sports jerseys in general, much less on multiple days in a row, is not a good look.
So let’s put the past behind us. This year, I urge you to know when to hold ‘em, when to fold ‘em, and when to step away from the sports jerseys. Try a Hawaiian shirt instead. It has a lower dork-factor but still sends the message that you’re a casual player.
 So I listened. And I found a beautiful Hawaiian shirt in my casino’s galleria, and sent Julie a photo for approval. And I entered “The Little One for One Drop No-Limit Hold’em, the second largest competition of the World Series, behind the Main Event of course.
(This is really a special event. 10% of all proceeds are sent to One Drop—a non-profit organization established in 2007 by Guy Laliberté, Founder of Cirque du Soleil. One Drop strives to ensure that water is accessible to all, today and forever by developing integrated water-access and management projects around the world. In the U.S., One Drop is a public charity that undertakes innovative activities in which water plays a central role as a creative force to generate positive, sustainable change worldwide.)
And I played really great. 30 minutes into the event, I ran into some horrible luck. I flopped a set of 9s; and there was an Ace on the board, meaning that I probably could extract a lot of money from an unsuspecting opponent with a good hand, like an Ace/King or an Ace/Queen. However, when I went all in, I was called by a set of 10s. Oops. My chip count went down to a pitiful 800 or so.
But I didn’t lose my composure. Over the next 8 hours, I slowly and methodically built up my stack, employing some ridiculous bluffs when I had good reads on my opponents, and eight hours later, I had a decent sized stack, around 8000 chips.
I was dealt an Ace/King, and when the first four cards were turned up, I had an ace high flush. Sirens! I went all in and was called by someone with a Queen high flush. Only one card could beat me — if a 9 of diamonds appeared on the river (final card) — my opponent would defy all odds and defeat me with the best hand of all, a straight flush. (He had roughly a one in 30 chance.)
And guess what? Straight flush. I was busted.
 My lucky outfit The good news, is that the One Drop tournament offers a second chance — a mulligan, in golf terms. I will rebuy in a few hours and start from scratch. And the One Drop charity gets a little more of my money.
Of course, I blame the bad luck entirely on Julie. So I will return to being a dork, and wear my luck Cincinnati Reds Joe Morgan jersey, with No Labels ball cap, the same outfit that I wore on my luckiest Day 2 from last year.
I’m also headed to the gym, to take on my third day of weight training under the long distance training of the world’s great poker physical fitness expert, Josh Bowen.
Check it out below, and I will keep you updated regularly as always on my progress at my Facebook Page and on Twitter.
By Jonathan Miller, on Wed Jul 3, 2013 at 12:05 PM ET If you haven’t yet subscribed to The RP’s KY Political Brief – prepared every weekday morning by wunderkind Bradford Queen with links to all of the day’s Kentucky political news — now is the time. Click here to subscribe FOR FREE!
With Alison Lundergan Grimes’ announcement just a few days old, it seems like every news organization in the country is covering her challenge of U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
From this morning’s KY Political Brief:
| AND THEY’RE OFF – “McConnell vs. Grimes: Let’s get ready to rumble,” CNN: “It’s game on in Kentucky, in what could end up being the most expensive and nasty 2014 Senate race in the country. One day after Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, who many in the Democratic party consider their best hope to unseat Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell in next year’s midterm elections, announced that she’ll challenge the longtime GOP senator, and the emails from both sides are flying. … It’s part of a strategy by national Republicans and the McConnell campaign to tie Grimes to President Barack Obama, who lost Kentucky by 23 percentage points in last November’s election. … The Democrats strategy is just as clear as their Republican counterparts. They want to make this contest all about Mitch McConnell and his three decades in the nation’s capital.” [CNN]BEHIND THE SCENES – “‘Unorthodox’ and sometimes ‘surreal’ meeting prompted Grimes to reveal, and possibly to make, decision to run” by CN|2’s Ryan Alessi: “Even Alison Lundergan Grimes didn’t know what she would announce to the world late Monday afternoon when she arrived at the building she used as the headquarters for her campaign in 2011. Or, at least, she didn’t let on to the more than 100 supporters she called there that she had made a decision about running for the U.S. Senate until the very end of the meeting. Interviews with more than a half-dozen people who attended the meeting — several of whom asked not to be quoted — yielded descriptions of Grimes’ approach to the announcement as “unorthodox,” “unprecedented,” “fascinating” and, at times, “surreal.” Instead of telling supporters whether she was running for Senate, Grimes opened it up for them to tell her what they thought. After the first several people spoke, Grimes began calling on others by name to give their takes. After nearly an hour, a consensus emerged: she should run for the party’s nomination to challenge U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell. …”Grimes opened the meeting up by thanking her supporters for traveling from urban areas and more rural areas of western and eastern Kentucky. Without tipping her hand about which way she was leaning, she told the group she wanted to hear from them. … It was [State Sen. Julian] Carroll who got the meeting going with a fire-and-brimstone speech urging Grimes to carry the party’s mantle against McConnell. … Carroll, who has spent much of the last 50 years in state government, told the group that McConnell can be beaten – that he has lost touch with voters and the priorities of Kentucky and that he has been an obstructionist. He told Grimes that she has the smarts, personality and network to beat him.” [CN|2 Politics]
THE VIDEOS – “Mitch McConnell attacks Alison Lundergan Grimes with Auto-Tune,” WaPo: “Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has responded quickly to his new Democratic opponent — with Auto-Tune. Over an autotuned beat, a new Web video from the senator’s campaign rhymes “Alison Lundergan Grimes” to various lines of attack — “Not Ready for Prime Time,” “Sticks to Party Line,” “Left Wing Mime.”” [WaPo] … SEE the auto-tune video [YouTube]
—In the McConnell campaign’s second video release of yesterday, it criticized Grimes’ announcement for being quickly arranged. “Checklist” was released on YouTube last evening.WATCH [YouTube]
ABOUT THAT ANNOUNCEMENT – “Alison Lundergan Grimes’s underwhelming launch — and what it means,” WaPo: “Alison Lundergan Grimes is taking on perhaps the most fearsome Republican campaign operation in politics: the team of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. That daunting task is what makes her formal announcement on Monday all the more puzzling. To wit: * At her press conference, Grimes was flanked by a banner for her 2011 secretary of state campaign rather than a new banner for her Senate campaign. … * Grimes’s announcement was not promoted on her Twitter account, her Facebook page or really by anyone other than her top adviser, who told the Associated Press about the 3 p.m. announcement on Monday morning. … * As of Tuesday afternoon, Grimes still had no campaign Web site, though GrimesforSenate.com and AlisonforSenate.com appear to have been snapped up by someone. That means that anybody who was excited by her launch and wants to contribute money to her campaign has no outlet to do so. …* Grimes showed up more than half an hour late for her press conference, after gathering with advisers and supporters to inform them of her decision.” [WaPo]
—“Grimes’ supporters pleased she is running but dread the attack ads” by CNHI’s Ronnie Ellis: “It wasn’t the smoothest of political announcements, although it would be hard to match for suspense. When Alison Lundergan Grimes, the 34-year-old Democratic first-term Secretary of State, entered the downstairs of the building on Democrat Drive here Monday, there was no guarantee she would tell supporters she was running for the U.S. Senate against Kentucky’s most powerful Republican, Sen. Mitch McConnell. Even after the meeting began, most of the approximately 100 people in the room remained in suspense. Grimes didn’t tell them she was running – she instead asked them what they thought. …
“Reporters and television cameras were already camped out in a sweltering room upstairs, waiting for the promised 3 p.m. announcement when they heard a burst of cheers from downstairs, which most took as an indication Grimes had told supporters she would run. They grew impatient as 3 p.m. came and went. They heard another cheer from downstairs and several Grimes supporters began filing into the room with smiles on their faces. … Meanwhile, Grimes was apparently on the telephone, telling her mother and others of her decision. Upstairs, one of her advisors, Jonathan Hurst, stepped to the microphone and told the reporters she’d be coming to the podium shortly. By the time Grimes appeared, it was 30 minutes past the announced 3 p.m. time for the announcement. She stood before a Secretary of State banner because “that’s all we had,” according to one of her staff.” [CNHI]
—“An Awkward Start to McConnell-Grimes Race,” WSJ: “Senate campaigns aren’t decided 16 months before Election Day, but the race in Kentucky between Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes has gotten off to a decidedly bizarre start. First, Ms. Grimes announced her candidacy in a hastily planned, poorly organized press conference in which the backdrop advertised her current post (Kentucky’s secretary of state) rather than the one she is seeking (U.S. senator). Befuddled reporters quickly panned her initial foray into national politics. The Grimes campaign drew another round of taunts for unveiling a campaign website that is so barebones it looks like a relic of the early Internet era. The website and the hastily arranged news conference fed the impression that the 34-year-old might not be ready for an expensive, hard-fought tussle with Mr. McConnell. Then, Tuesday afternoon, the McConnell campaign sought to seize on the bad buzz by trotting out its own catchy but somewhat nonsensical web ad mocking his newly declared Democratic opponent as a self-centered proxy for Washington liberals who is “not ready for prime time.” It ended with a disclosure that misspelled Mr. McConnell’s surname.” [WSJ]
ASHLEY JUDD jumps in to support Grimes’ bid, tweeting yesterday: “Even in thick woods outstanding news filters through. Thrilled for the people of KY & ready to fight beside @AlisonForKY @KySecofState”
DAYS UNTIL : Fancy Farm2013: 31 … Next fundraising deadline: 89 … Primary Election filing deadline: 209 … Fancy Farm 2014: 395 … Ky. 2014 Primary Election day: 321 … 2014 General Election day: 489
TEA PARTY TALK : “National tea party group urges Senator Mitch McConnell to consider retirement” by C-J’s Joe Gerth: “The head of a national political action committee with tea party leanings is urging Sen. Mitch McConnell to consider retirement from the U.S. Senate rather than face losing to Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes. … “Mitch McConnell is now the least electable Republican senator running for reelection in 2014,” Matt Hoskins, the executive director of the Senate Conservatives Fund, told the Washington Post on Tuesday. “He could lose this race and cost Republicans the majority. He needs to consider whether it might be time to hang it up.” … In an interview with The Courier-Journal, Hoskins said he’s concerned that McConnell will lose moderate Democrats and independents who have helped elect him in the past. …
“The Senate Conservatives Fund is a super PAC that was created by former U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint, R-South Carolina, who was an early leader of the tea party movement. He quit the senate earlier this year to become president of the Heritage Foundation and is no longer associated with the PAC. The group has never been in step with McConnell or the Republican establishment from where he comes. In 2010, the group, at DeMint’s direction, endorsed Rand Paul for the Senate while McConnell was backing then Secretary of State Trey Grayson.” [C-J]
MORE ANALYSIS – Jonathan Miller for HuffPost, “How Alison Lundergan Grimes Can Defeat Mitch McConnell”: “… Alison Lundergan Grimes can beat Mitch McConnell. But like most congressional campaigns, which often can be decided by the national political winds, Grimes’ success will be determined by several factors over which she will be able to exercise very little oversight. Here are a few that might make the difference between a Grimes victory and a McConnell sixth term … Barack Obama … The McConnell team has not merely hinted that it will be doing everything in its power to tie Alison Grimes to the president, who is quite unpopular in this deeply red state; it has whack-a-moled the theme in all of its early political advertisements. … Independent Political Organization Spending … While editorial pages and good government activists have pilloried the Supreme Court’s decision in Citizens United that provided corporations with the same political speech rights as individuals, there’s been no more prominent and passionate advocate for unrestricted (and undisclosed) campaign spending than Mitch McConnell.” [HuffPost]
—“Grimes faces tough odds in bid to unseat McConnell” by H-L’s Beth Musgrave: “Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes faces tough odds in her campaign to unseat U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, but the race remains competitive, political pundits said Tuesday. Grimes’ biggest problem: She must carry the political ball-and-chain that is President Barack Obama as she runs against a five-term incumbent who already has more than $8 million in his campaign war chest. In 2012, Obama collected just under 40 percent of the vote in Kentucky, winning only four counties. Voters in Central Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District also booted Democrat Ben Chandler out of office, leaving Louisville’s John Yarmuth as the only Democrat in the state’s congressional delegation. … “That’s a huge problem for Grimes,” said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Report, a nonpartisan political newsletter that handicaps political races. “Mitch is not widely popular. But the bigger problem for Grimes is she is a Democrat in a federal race in a Republican-leaning state.”” [H-L]
—“Kentucky U.S. Senate Race Pits Grimes Inexperience Against McConnell Unpopularity” by WFPL’s Phillip Bailey: “The entrance of Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes in the race for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Republican Mitch McConnell makes the Kentucky contest one of the most closely watched in the country. And the early jabs appear to put up Grimes’s relative inexperience against McConnell’s wide unpopularity. After meeting with supporters, Grimes announced this week she intends to seek the party’s nomination to run against the GOP leader next year. Immediately, the McConnell campaign and GOP groups mocked Grimes’s rollout as a sign the first-term secretary of state isn’t prepared to run at the national level. The amount of attention spent on poking fun at Grimes could be further evidence this race will be the nastiest in 2014. But the Grimes team argues a full campaign rollout will be active by the end of July, and the criticisms are a petty distraction.” [WFPL] |
|
Click here to subscribe FOR FREE to The RP’s KY Political Brief.
By Jonathan Miller, on Wed Jul 3, 2013 at 10:00 AM ET  Photo courtesy of Thom Karmik One of the most critical bits of advice shared with me by my friend and nationally-celebrated mental performance coach Jim Fannin, was to never dwell on the past, keep my mind focused on the present, and when a setback occurs, say “Next!” and move onto the next challenge.
As a writer, I have to break the rule a little bit. After a nearly 13 hour ride in the $1000 no limit Texas hold-em tournament in the 2013 World Series of Poker — the same event last year in which I made the final table and won nearly $70,000 — I busted out when my Ace King suited (a very good hand) was beat by a pair of Jacks (a slightly better hand. I finished in the top 400 out of the nearly 3000 entrants — not too shabby, but far short of my goal of winning the championship bracelet.
I’m proud of how I played, and I don’t have any regrets. The trouble is that when you play the conservative “tight/aggressive” style I employ, you need to occasionally get dealt some good opening hands. And unlike last year, when a top hand appeared in my grasps when I really needed it, this year, in the 13 hours of play, I never was dealt any of the best 3 hands — Aces, Kings or Queens.
 So it is time to say “Next!” and prepare for the next challenge. That one starts at Noon PDT today (3:00 PM EDT), “The Little One for One Drop No-Limit Hold’em.” This will be the second largest competition of the World Series (behind the Main Event of course), and 10% of all proceeds are sent to One Drop—a non-profit organization established in 2007 by Guy Laliberté, Founder of Cirque du Soleil. One Drop strives to ensure that water is accessible to all, today and forever by developing integrated water-access and management projects around the world. In the U.S., One Drop is a public charity that undertakes innovative activities in which water plays a central role as a creative force to generate positive, sustainable change worldwide.
I’m headed to the gym, to take on my second day of weight training under the long distance training of the world’s great poker physical fitness expert, Josh Bowen. Check it out below, and I will keep you updated regularly as always on my progress at my Facebook Page and on Twitter.
By Jonathan Miller, on Tue Jul 2, 2013 at 3:34 PM ET
I realize that this is supposed to be an attack video; but the tune is so catchy that if I were the Grimes campaign, I might appropriate it for a positive ad campaign.
What rhymes with Alison Lundergan Grimes?
- Better Kentucky times.
- Fewer electoral crimes.
- Gin and tonics with limes.
Come on, RP Nation — your turn:
By Jonathan Miller, on Tue Jul 2, 2013 at 3:23 PM ET
By RP Nation, on Tue Jul 2, 2013 at 2:00 PM ET  This has been one of the most difficult and most amazing 48 hours that I can remember. On the heels of a week that caused us to hurt and celebrate over the decisions of our United States Supreme Court, I thought that we had seen it all. Saturday afternoon, just after 1:30, the only lightning bolt to hit Indianapolis struck out of the clear blue sky and hit the sports field of Goldman Union Camp Institute. G.U.C.I. is the youth summer camp for this region of the Union for Reform Judaism. That bolt of lightning struck three campers. This news has been shared through media sources all across the country (and even in Israel). As those of us who were first responders provided emergency medical care until rescue teams arrived with ambulances, hundreds of children were provided for and cared for in ways that proved to me why this camp has been such a force in molding the future leaders of our communities over the last 60 plus years. I arrived at the sports field just after the first of five emergency vehicles. What I witnessed already happening was something horrific and amazing, and both at the same time. Yes, three campers were seriously injured. The emergency medical care that they were receiving from counselors and staff was nothing short of miraculous. Our camp is staffed primarily by college and post graduate school age young adults. The courage, the professionalism, and the obvious love that these people showed in the most awful of situations will stay with me for the rest of my life.
We helped get the three campers to the ambulances, and helped the emergency teams get out of camp, avoiding the media that had already gathered at our gates. At that point, we were able to learn that the rest of our staff had already rallied and engaging our youth in incredible ways. We gathered campers into one major area, and without prompting, our rising high school seniors launched into an immediate improvisational comedy act to keep campers’ attentions, and then took it upon themselves to plan the entire camp wide evening programs. By Sunday morning, our staff had camp running at a level that kept us moving forward and kept our youth focused, all ensuring the vibrancy of their experience. All who need to process are receiving love and appropriate care.
We have spent the last 48 hours taking care of families of our children, staying active at the hospital as our injured children and their families are receiving the finest of care, and taking care of each other. Two of the campers have been released and gone home. One wants to return for the rest of this session. I apologize that this took 48 hours to write, but I have been, as they say, “knee deep in the hoopla.” As a first responder, I have tried to take care of others who were even more immediately involved and affected, and at the same time, help keep camp celebrating. My hat is off to Rabbi Mark Covitz (Camp Director), to the Assistant Director Joe Slade, and to our senior leadership. These people (our “top deck”) are nothing short of amazing in how they handled and managed our efforts to heal and restore our camp family. Senior members of the URJ executive came to help, and expressed their own amazement at, and appreciation for, how well our crew was taking care of each other and of our camp.
In short, while I can never imagine using this episode as a tool for marketing this camp, I have to say that we learned firsthand something that we intrinsically always knew: Sending our kids to G.U.C.I. is not just a four week experience away from home. We groomed all of our leadership. From our Camp Director and Assistant Director, on down to our newest counselors: they were most all campers here, and grew up learning to love and care for this place and for each other. Over the last ten years serving as faculty here, I have watched many of these folks grow from awkward youth into amazing young leaders. These young adults are prepared for life and for leadership positions. They literally saved lives, physically, spiritually, and emotionally; a gift and blessing for which I will always stand in awe and for which I will always be grateful. Of course, we all pray for the healing of our campers and for their families. We are also thankful for God’s blessings that get shared here in such amazing ways. I worked with one unit today, as they were writing statements to go in a time capsule for the next generation of campers. I began to tear as I read the number of them that spoke of the campers love for their counselors, their cabin mates, and for the way in which they are cared for. Truly this is a day blessed by God.
By Jonathan Miller, on Tue Jul 2, 2013 at 1:30 PM ET In his latest column for The Huffington Post, The RP argues that Alison Lundergan Grimes CAN defeat Mitch McConnell. But that much is out of her control. Here’s an excerpt:
 Alison Lundergan Grimes can beat Mitch McConnell. But like most congressional campaigns, which often can be decided by the national political winds, Grimes’ success will be determined by several factors over which she will be able to exercise very little oversight. Here are a few that might make the difference between a Grimes victory and a McConnell sixth term:
Barack Obama
The McConnell team has not merely hinted that it will be doing everything in its power to tie Alison Grimes to the President who is quite unpopular in this deeply red state; it has whack-a-moled the theme in all of its early political advertisements. Just this past week, a GOP SuperPAC spent more than a quarter of a million dollars attacking the non-announced Grimes as a Senator “who would jam through Obama’s agenda — massive spending, Obamacare, the war on coal.”
This case would ordinarily be a tough sell: Grimes has long had both feet planted in the Clinton camp, has received considerable support from the coal industry, and in the mostly administrative position of Secretary of State, has never had to take a position on the hot-button social and economic issues that have made Obama unpopular in the Bluegrass State. In her brief announcement press conference, she signaled an early distancing from the President when she dodged a reporter’s question about Obamacare by answering, “Regardless of the vote that is issued in this race, we cannot change who our president is. But we can change who we have in Washington representing Kentucky.”
Still, any case can be made when it is backed with many millions of dollars in television ads. Which brings us to Factor 2:
Click here to read the full piece.
|
The Recovering Politician Bookstore
|
