Zac Byer’s Prix Fixe Politics: Super Tuesday Special

Good morning, and welcome to Super Tuesday! As Mitt Romney continues his quest to win the look-alike contest with the guy in the Levitra commercials — I mean, win the Republican nomination — here is your prix fixe menu for one of politicos’ favorite days of the year…

Appetizer: Anti-incumbent sentiment is at an all-time high. If you took high school civics, you know that incumbents have a 90+% re-election rate. In 2012, however, nearly 50% say they would vote out their congressman, and Congress’ approval rating is 9% (I bet Gaddafi had a higher approval rating). We won’t see turnover like that, of course, but there’s fear on Capitol Hill of a “Vote Them All Out” groundswell propagated by someone like Donald Trump. What do House Republicans have going for them, even though they could give back the congressional majority they won on the Tea Party wave in 2010? We’ve found Nancy Pelosi’s unfavorability numbers are 15 points higher than John Boehner’s. Not that people are pleased with Boehner, but tell them that Pelosi may become Speaker again, and they shudder. Look for a recycling of the anti-Pelosi videos and images from the best ads of 2010.

Main Course: There are 437 delegates available today in a total of 10 states, the most notable being Ohio (66), Virginia (49), Georgia (76), and Tennessee (58). A sign of their poor campaign infrastructure, and one of the reasons why they will ultimately lose the GOP primary to Romney, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich failed to make the ballot in Virginia. Romney should pick up all of Virginia’s delegates, and he’ll pick up more than half in Ohio. But will he win Ohio? It’s going to be close, but I think Romney pulls it out by less than 1.0%. That Romney can’t — and won’t — pull away in Ohio like he could in Florida bodes poorly for painting the Buckeye State red in November outside of an Ohio State football game. Though he will only win in his home state of Georgia, today will in fact be super for Gingrich. The win will allow Gingrich to take the stage somewhere in Atlanta once the polls close, reclaim the mantle of Conservative-Alternative-to-Romney, and move to the upcoming primaries in Alabama and Mississippi. This is still Romney’s nomination to lose, and he’ll pick up some more momentum coming out of today’s contests, but the bigger story will be what happens between Santorum and Gingrich going forward. I don’t expect Gingrich to drop-out before the Convention — he has little to lose, too much self-respect, and a searing hatred for Romney. After Romney beat up on him at the Arizona debate two weeks ago, Santorum is over-the-cliff with his bitterness toward Romney, too. But Santorum actually has a chance to run again in 2016, so he needs to think about how many primaries he can afford to lose before he’s tagged a twenty-first century “Loser” (remember, he lost his 2006 Senate re-election bid by 18%).

Dessert: Some miscellaneous thoughts from my recent travels…Nicest People in the Country Award: Alabamans — Those of us in the Northeast or California think it’s a give-in that “flyover” residents want to come visit our states. Well, when the people in Birmingham greet you with a “Welcome to Alabama, and thanks for coming!” it’s hard to resist giving them a hug. Rising Star Award: Kasim Reed, Mayor of Atlanta — I spent some time with Reed in Atlanta, who wouldn’t be the Mayor but for 714 votes in his 2009 run-off. He is efficient, authentic, and a budget-hawk…and a Democrat, I might add. But maybe it’s his motto that I find hardest to argue with: “The future of politics is performance.”

After Dinner Drink: Here’s another effective anti-Obama ad, linking him to Wall Street and Wall Street money: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zt3vwWfP-EA

That he has taken more money from Wall Street than any other candidate resonates loudly with our swing voters. The problem, however, is that so long as Romney continues talking about “capitalism” instead of “economic freedom,” his financial success will be worn down by his inability to defend Bain Capital.