–Walter Benjamin, The work of Art in the Age of Mechanical Reproduction
Time Magazine recently named “The Protester” its 2011 “Person of the Year.” In a year defined by an Arab Spring where the people of Africa and the Middle East risked life and limb to demand democracy, and Americans “Occupied Wall Street” to reclaim democracy, Time’s choice made perfect sense.
But I submit that a strong runner up for “Person of the Year” should be “Social Media”—that is, “Facebook,” “Twitter,” and handheld devices (PDA’s, etc). No, these social media tools aren’t actual people, but they provided the tools for the protesters to organize and reveal to the world their plight.
When studying for my doctorate, I immersed myself in the Frankfurt School of philosophy . Many of its leading thinkers were weary of the rise of technology as a tool for totalitarians. Theodor Adorno even warned of a “culture industry” wherein consumerism masks itself as choice, instilling a false sense of personal freedom when there was no real freedom.
A dissenting view within the Frankfort School came from Walter Benjamin, who believed new technologies (in the context of his writing, the increased use of film and photography) could have a political effect that could be liberating if placed in the hands of the people. Benjamin, a Jew fleeing from the Nazis, committed suicide when it appeared he was going to be captured and sent to concentration camps. At a time when Hitler was in power and using film for purposes of mass propaganda, Benjamin’s technological optimism, in context, seems surprising.
Read the rest of… Greg Harris: The Revolution Will Not Be Televised; It Will Be Tweeted
By John Y. Brown III, on Wed Jan 4, 2012 at 12:30 PM ET
Post Election Final Thoughts:
I applaud yesterday’s chaotic, surprising, and uniquely American process leading to the narrowest of narrow victories by the front-runner and a near shocking underdog upset–accompanied by a respectable third place finish from an independent and brainy gadfly.
It reinforces my belief in our democratic system. And however messy and unpredictable, it’s still a thing of beauty to behold. And to be grateful for.
Finally, if I had to pinpoint a regret it is that the race didn’t last one more week and have one more candidate with one more wise admonition. The extra week may have allowed Sen Santorum’s sensational surge to run its course ….and see the final candidate I would like to have seen in the mix peak and prevailed at just the right moment, Chance Gardner. And in his acceptance speech, in my fanciful ending, candidate Gardner would admonish Americans in Iowa and beyond by quoting Voltaire from Candide (discussing Chance’s favorite topic, gardening). “Let us cultivate our own garden.”
But I’m a romantic. And it was a Republican primary. Let’s be real. A French quote (even a self-reliant quote) to summarize the moment’s electoral message, was probably too much to ask.
By Robert Kahne, RP Staff, on Wed Jan 4, 2012 at 9:30 AM ET
Willard Romney won the Iowa Caucuses last night by all of eight votes over Richard Santorum. It was so close that Santorum gave a victory speech and Romney gave a concession speech. Since the GOP allots delegates in a proportional format, that doesn’t really matter. It also doesn’t really matter because Iowa doesn’t even technically allocate their delegates until a convention in a few months. I heard someone say about the caucuses last night: “This is like a 20 inning game between the Pirates and Nationals. Interesting, but not really relevant to anything.” At any rate, all the writers for this site were glued to twitter and their televisions last night. Here are some results:
As the pundits and Wednesday morning quarterbacks assess the winners and losers of last night’s Iowa caucuses, one verdict is clear: Our savvy gang of RPs couldn’t shoot straight.
Reviewing their predictions from yesterday, click here for the infamous post, only RP staffer Zack Adams predicted the correct finish of the top 6 candidates, and former Alabama Congressman Artur Davis was the only recovering politician to predict the correct order of the top 3.
Most humiliated was The RP himself. Not only did he forecast a last-minute Ron Paul surge (30 points — come on?!?), but then, after the entrance polls “confirmed” his predictions, he bragged on Twitter and Facebook about how he was whipping fellow RPs Jeff Smith and John Y. Brown, III. We imagine that the RP has crawled back into his spider hole awaiting redemption in New Hampshire.
At least recovering politicians can laugh at themselves. Here’s John Y.’s thoughts from last night when it looked like the RP and Jeff Smith had bested him:
Post Iowa Primary Prediction: Although it’s still too early to know how things will shake out tonight….it appears Jonathan Miller and Jeff Smith and a passel of others from the RP blog, will do a better job predicting tonight’s outcome than I did.
So, I need to come back in a big way tomorrow—and I will!!
My big prediction? Newt Gingrich will go long and score big –again—with the one Secret… Weapon he has mastered so well—the florid and grandiose press release.
I predict Newt will provide a “shock and awe” release tomorrow morning that taps into something in millions of American voters who know deep down that any candidate who can use words like “literati” and “minions” in a campaign press release is a man who can and probably should be president.
And maybe, just maybe, history and Providence will ensure that “Out of the billowing smoke and dust of tweets and trivia emerged Gingrich.”
After two years of campaign, hundreds of pundit prognostications, and thousands of cable news sound bites, at long last, what you’ve been waiting for…
Our fearless contributors — Contributing RPs, Friends of RP and RP Staff — offer their predictions for tonight’s Iowa caucuses.
And you can too — please give us your predictions in the Comments section below.
Without further ado…(Click on their name to find out their background)…
The RP: Paul 30%; Romney 25%; Santorum 21%; Gingrich 7%; Perry 6%; Bachmann 4%, Huntsman 1%. I don’t think Rick “Man On Dog” Santorum’s organization is strong enough to take advantage of his surge. I also think Paul’s support is underestimated in the polls because his grassroots support is so fervant, and the tin foil hat crowd among his followers are fearful of pollsters. Remember Pat Robertson?
Jeff Smith: Santorum 27; Romney 23; Paul 23; Perry 11; Gingrich 9; Bachmann 6. I think some Bachmann/Gingrich/Perry folks walk in to their caucus, see how outnumbered they are by Sant-mentum, and get on the bandwagon.
Jason Grill: Romney, Paul, and Santorum will finish first, second, and third. The order though is more “up in the air” than George Clooney was in his recent Oscar nominated movie. Organization and friends twisting other friends arms at the caucuses will decide the order of the top three. If Romney finishes third that WILL be news and change the race somewhat moving forward. He will be seen as an even weaker front runner if this happens. Also, it will be interesting to see where Perry and Gingrich finish tonight. Keep a lookout for their percentages at the end of the night. A fourth place finish for Perry over Gingrich will signal a potential showdown with Romney in South Carolina. Lastly, I am anxious to see how Huntsman finishes in next week’s New Hampshire primary after skipping Iowa.
Mark Nickolas: Paul (25%); Romney (23%); Santorum (22%); Gingrich (11%); Perry (10%); Bachmann (6%). Iowa requires a level of commitment from supporters unlike anywhere else. Those with the best state organization and strongest levels of commitment do especially well (Paul and Paul). Also, since Independents and Dems can participate if they want to cross over — as Indies did for Obama in ’08 — that’s likely to help Paul the most. Nefarious (aka loyal) Dems are going to support anyone but Romney to ensure a protracted GOP race, with Paul and Santorum benefitting most.
Rod Jetton: I think Ron Paul will just nip Romney and Rick Santorum will get third. Newt probably finishes in 4th. The Ron Paul forces are dedicated and with his numbers going up they and their friends have started believing he can win. They will turn out and surprise all the experts.
Greg Harris: Santorum – 26%; Romney – 25%; Paul – 21%; Gingrich – 12%; Bachman – 8%; Perry – 7%; Huntsman – 1%. Santorum’s diligent grassroots work throughout the State this past year will pay off, resulting in more ardent caucus warriors advocating his case, and moving some on-the-fence Bachman and Perry supporters. Ron Paul’s fanatical base will still assure him over an over 20% showing. The minority moderate voters will hold their noses and back Romney.
Read the rest of… Our Contributors Predict the Iowa Caucuses…
By Michael Steele, on Mon Jan 2, 2012 at 3:06 PM ET
Happy New Year! And what a year it’s going to be. But first, the GOP has to nominate someone for president–and it all begins in Iowa.
Sitting atop some rather interesting scaffolding above the Polk Convention Center floor I got to thinking about the next 36 hours or so and how the worm has turned during this GOP primary. After recent, but brief rides on the Cain Train and the Gingrich bus is everyone now in the back of the Santorum pick-up truck? From what it sounds like on the ground, I think Rick is going to need a bigger truck.
From hanging out with folks at Java Joe’s (great coffee BTW) to a ride in an elevator, everyday Iowans have been offering up their thoughts on this race and Rick Santorum has become (at least for the moment) their kind of candidate.
So what does this mean for Romney? It’s all good as long as Rick remembers his place. Meaning: He shouldn’t let any success he may have on Tuesday night go to his head. If he does, the Romney Team and their 527s will make an “adjustment” for him. For now at least, Romney loves how Santorum has filled in the gaps for conservatives after the masterful filleting of Gingrich over the past two weeks. But trust me, if Santorum comes out of Iowa with a close 2nd or heaven forbid, outright wins the caucuses, then watch for those filet knives to come out for Santorum.
Why? Because a Santorum win in Iowa translates into an opportunity for the 75% of the GOP base which still can’t seem to bring themselves to support Romney to coalesce behind Rick (much like they started to do with Newt) and THAT won’t work for Romney. But, Rick has an advantage the other “anti-Romney” candidates did not have: it’s only one week until the next contest which will require some quick work in order to soften up support for Santorum and to make the ugly stuff stick.
One other thought, as the New Hampshire sun rises on Wednesday morning, watch for a different type of engagement from Gingrich (and Perry?) as attention shifts to the Nation’s first Primary. Yesterday in a back and forth with Chris Matthews, the former Speaker let it be known he had had enough of taking it on the chin from the Romney camp. Grab your popcorn. This is going to get good.
By Kristen Soltis, on Tue Dec 6, 2011 at 8:30 AM ET
Whether Obama’s reelection is considered a slam-dunk, an uncertain proposition, or an impossibility depends entirely on the data you consider a credible indicator these days.
If you ask some on the right (as well as more than a few depressed Democrats), Obama is toast. The data to support their case are straightforward: no president (since the advent of modern survey research) has beenreelected with an approval rating below 48 percent. Obama’s numbers these days are below that threshold and are just south of Jimmy Carter’s at this point in his presidency. Furthermore, the highest unemployment rate that accompanied a president’s reelection is 7.2 percent, a far cry from today’s 9 percent. Republican voters are more excited. Young voters aren’t going to show upwhen their unemployment rate is through the roof. Not to mention, the new electoral college map handsRepublicans six freebie electors if they simply hold the states McCain won in 2008. Simple conclusion: the Obama reelection effort is doomed.
Or is it?
Consider the case made by Obama-optimists: the long-term trends are in his favor. Back in 2009, James Carville and Ruy Teixeira were writing books, declaring the somewhat inevitable demographic-driven decline of the GOP. Even today, Obama retains strength among minorities and young voters. (The latest Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin report makes the case that demographics are a strength for Obama.) Obama’s campaign is raising millions upon millions and saving it all to spend in the general election. Not a single television in America won’t be bombarded with ads reminding them of those Republican meanies in Congress and of who was in charge when we got Osama bin Laden. Republicans may put up a fight, but he’s just too strong a campaigner. Case closed.
So which is it?
Count me somewhere in the middle.
Read the rest of… Kristen Soltis: Is Obama Destined to Win or Doomed to Fail?
The RP was back at it yesterday afternoon on national television, discussing political dysfunction and promoting the work of the national movement he co-founded to promote bipartisan dialogue and action: No Labels.
This time, he was joined on a CNN live broadcast by fellow contributing RP and fellow No Labels co-founder, Lisa Borders. TV critics unanimously declared that Lisa whupped up on the RP, even though they took the same side of the debate.
Watch it for yourself and let us know what you think. And if you like what you hear about No Labels’ plans to “Make Congress Work,” click here to join No Labels:
Time Magazine recently named “The Protester” its 2011 “Person of the Year.” In a year defined by an Arab Spring where the people of Africa and the Middle East risked life and limb to demand democracy, and Americans “Occupied Wall Street” to reclaim democracy, Time’s choice made perfect sense.
When studying for my doctorate, I immersed myself in the Frankfurt School of philosophy . Many of its leading thinkers were weary of the rise of technology as a tool for totalitarians. Theodor Adorno even warned of a “culture industry” wherein consumerism masks itself as choice, instilling a false sense of personal freedom when there was no real freedom.
