[Krystal Ball’s Provocation; Artur Davis’ Rebuttal #1; Jeff Smith’s Rebuttal #2; Ron Granieri’s Rebuttal #3; The RP’s Rebuttal #4; Ron Granieri’s First Response]
Listening to liberals the past few weeks is so fun.
They are all giddy with how “nasty” the Republican primary has become and have convinced themselves that the “weakened” Republican nominee won’t stand a chance against President Obama.
Krystal made these points in her post, but those predictors are not very objective. They point out that the tea party base will nominate an extremist who can’t beat Obama. They seem happy to take on Romney even though he is considered to be the moderate Republican.
This election is not like 1968, or 1972. It’s a bit like 1980 and a lot like 2008. Artur Davis pointed out reality in his post, and those facts about the key states Obama has to win are real.
I’m sure the polling and focus groups show the Bain Capital attack to be effective. That is why Newt and every Democrat talking head repeat it every chance they can. I also think it will be more effective on general election voters, but Romney has a chance to turn those attacks into a positive if he plays it right.
My main complaint with Krystal’s logic is that I believe this primary fight does not matter. First, ALL Republicans will unite behind whomever wins and do all they can to beat Obama. I have never seen the opposition to and disdain for a person that Republicans have for Obama in 2012.
Wait…I do remember this type of thing. In 2008 when the Democrats were united in their contempt for Bush.
Secondly, very few voters are paying attention to the primary. There is this thing called the Super Bowl that normal people care about. even a political junkie and reformed politician like me is more concerned with the game right now.
Krystal needs to step away from her political friends and start asking strangers if they know who won the New Hampshire primary. She will probably be scared to know that they won’t, and they probably can’t name any of the Republican candidates except for maybe Newt.
Voters are mad and fed up with all politicians. They think Obama failed and once we have a Republican they will take note, watch a debate and make a decision.
If the economy keeps improving that will help Obama, but if Romney looks like he can handle the job they will give him a chance.
Voters were scared in 2008 and 2009. They listened to Obama and hated George Bush. So the “extreme” Democrat made it through the nasty primary fight and looked like he could handle the job.
Everyone loved Obama. We listened to every speech and paid attention to every word he said. That’s when Obama made his mistake. He and his congressional allies believed the hype and over-promised while under-delivering.
Then when things did not improve as promised, his theme changed in 2010 and 2011. He switched to blaming George Bush. His party was hammered in 2010 and he has never recovered. They say in politics you never get a second chance to make a first impression, and Obama will have to fight a bad first impression in 2012.
I think he can still pull it out if things dramatically improve, but now he will have to overcome the negative ads. These ads will be easy to make and easy to believe. My ad would start with sweeping footage of a huge crowd and Obama promising how wonderful things will soon be and then the music, tone and color change while showing unemployment lines, homes foreclosed, and high gas prices as 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 scroll across the screen. The announcer would ask: Are you any better than you were 4 years ago? I might even end it with Obama making one last pitch to blame it on Bush.
Now that I think of it, an ad with clips of Obama blaming others like Bush, Republicans, Congress, and Europe, then ending with an announcer asking, “You thought you elected a president who could change things…. Looks like, yes we can, turned into: ‘It’s not my fault.'”
Republicans think Obama can’t win, while Democrats have worked themselves into a state of ecstasy believing that he can’t lose. Neither are right. As they say in football, “That’s why you play the game.”
Obama can pull it off, but he has an uphill climb. Romney has the best chance of beating him, but he could still lose. Democrats think better job numbers will turn it all around, but I’m not convinced they will
Charts and numbers showing things are better do not make them better. Unless families feel things are better for them, his numbers will be soft, and Romney has a good chance of becoming president.
There is one number that I believe has the biggest effect on voter mentality. It’s a number that effects all Americans, and I first noticed its power when George Bush was president. I know unemployment numbers matter and housing numbers matter, but gas prices are what really effect voters.
The Democrats hated Bush and criticized him at every turn, but his numbers were strong until gas prices jumped up in 2005. Obama’s honeymoon continued despite terribly bad economic news until gas hit $4.00 a gallon.
Jobs numbers, housing costs, and inflation are not helping Obama, but I will be watching the gas prices this fall. If they are up over $3.50 then he is probably toast.
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