Zac Byer — Prix Fixe Politics, April 16

Good afternoon, and welcome to another edition of Prix Fixe Politics!  It’s now unofficially general election season, so you can finally rest assured Sarah Palin won’t be coming out of hibernation to join the race.  Here’s today’s menu…

 

But first – in the last edition, I asked a question in the Appetizer about what Americans want most in 2012.  If you said men want more money, and women want more time, you have your finger on the pulse of the American electorate.  Thanks to all who participated, and as promised, I have used the fancy algorithm of pulling a number out of a hat to pick the winner.  Sakina Zaidi, a Penn classmate of mine and formerly of Bain Capital, is the lucky one, so I will be treating her to drinks in…Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.  Because I don’t see a trip to the Horn of Africa in the near future, Sakina can claim her prize when she is back stateside; in the meantime, I will treat Nick Eng, another classmate of mine and currently a consultant with Diamond Management and Technology, next time I’m in New York City.  

 

Appetizer: A piece of data you should keep your eye on as we head toward summer is the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI).  CCI ignores contentious social issues and wedge issues, focusing on current economic conditions and voters’ future expectations for business, employment, and personal income.  The last 40 years show a potentially game-changing correlation:  If the CCI is at 100 or higher, the incumbent party has a significant advantage in its bid to retain the White House.  In October 2008, for example, the CCI was a paltry 52.  Gas prices had skyrocketed, the beginnings of the recession were among us, and John McCain ended up losing the election.  Since the 1972 election between Richard Nixon and George McGovern, the CCI has correctly predicted the outcome of 9/10 of the presidential elections (the notable exception being 2000, in which incumbent-party candidate Al Gore won the popular vote).  So, where do things stand now?  As of the end of March, the CCI stood at 70.2.  As Democrat strategist James Carville said to Bill Clinton in his 1992 campaign, “It’s the economy, stupid!”     

 

Main Course:  But, will Carville’s mantra hold serve this time around?  That’s certainly what the Romney camp is hoping for.  If the election hinges on anything other than current and expected economic prospects, Romney will lose.  He can’t beat Obama on foreign policy experience.  He can’t beat Obama on the relatively absurd, but often consequential question “Who is more presidential?”  And he can’t beat Obama on the stump.  Next time CNN or FOX televises a Romney speech, take 5 minutes and watch.  Nobody who truly believes all that Romney says about freedom and the Constitution and liberty should have to strain himself that much to show just a few ounces of emotion.  If the election turns into a referendum on economic issues, swing voters will be more likely to vote Republican this November, just as they were more likely to vote Democrat in November 2008.  Obama needs to make this a “choice” election, rather than a “referendum” election.  And if he does that, he’ll continue to pit party against party, politician against politician…and we’ll all be in for one ugly cycle.      

 

Dessert:  After Democrat strategist Hilary Rosen said Ann Romney has never worked a day in her life, we find ourselves shoulder-deep in the 21st century civil war:  The War On Women.  Did Rosen’s misstep cost Democrats the battlefield’s high ground?  Not exactly.  Fortunately for Obama, Rosen — not actual advisors like David Axelrod and Jim Messina — made the comment.  She is expendable, and I can assure you she won’t be speaking on the campaign’s behalf anymore.  Rosen’s comment did move the gender ball closer to the middle of the party lines.  And if the Republicans, with Ann Romney leading the charge, speak more clearly about the rising cost of life (think gas prices, grocery bills, school supply costs) that women see more directly than men, the gap will continue to narrow.

 

After Dinner Drink:  Here’s a link to the infamous 1988 Bush-Quayle “Willie Horton” ad.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y

I’m interested to watch the Trayvon Martin case unfold, and I am convinced somebody’s 2012 election hopes (more likely in the House or Senate) will be dashed by something stupid he or she says about the trial/shooting.  There’s an important Senate race in Florida where this will undoubtedly become an issue.  I link to the Willie Horton ad because, conceivably, a candidate could use George Zimmerman in a similar fashion.  If it’s successful, it will help turn out the African American vote.  If it’s done poorly, it’ll be viewed as race-baiting and end up backfiring.