Zac Byer: Why Herman Cain Should Not Worry

Prediction: Herman Cain will make it through this week, and those coming, without losing ground in the polls because of his past inappropriate advances. And he won’t even have to give out free slices of pizza to remain near the top of the Republic field. Now, please realize that I make this prediction without condoning Cain’s behavior. If he did it, it was wrong. Seriously, who are these guys’ mothers? Power corrupts, I guess.

But back to my thoughts on Cain’s polling position. Here are the reasons why I think the Hurri-Cain will weather this storm.

1) The Right’s Undying Mistrust of the Left: I don’t think a Republican would trust a Democrat to make a peanut-butter and jelly sandwich these days. What, you put the jelly on first? Preposterous! All kidding aside, as bad as the Cain campaign has been at responding to these sexual harassment stories, the crew has been GOP-good at blaming it on the mainstream media (read: Politico, Washington Post, and the rest of the liberal elite). If Cain can continue to frame this issue as a left-wing media attack on a rising, serious Republican challenger to President Obama, expect the money to keep pouring in to the Cain coffers. Plus, Gloria Allred got involved. As good as Allred is at getting women a soapbox, she is just as bad at preserving her “clients’” credibility. Again, Allred’s participation makes for the perfect fundraising e-mail and speech line.

2) We are Still in Primary Season: If this was 4 months before the general election, I wouldn’t be making this prediction (note: I don’t think Cain will win the Republican nomination anyway. But, I don’t think these harassment issues will be dispositive. . .Cain’s candidacy is plagued by other problems that I’ll try to address in a later column.). But, as we haven’t had our first primary yet, Cain can rest easier. Yesterday’s announcement about sexual harassment from 1997 – 14 years ago – is highly unlikely to push any Cain supporters away. I think it is just as unlikely that these reports are the straw that breaks the Independent voter’s back (that is, the Independent voter voting in a Republican primary). They’ll vote for someone other than Cain for a different reason, not because of this. With Democrats still sitting on the sidelines waiting for November 2012, Cain’s poll numbers won’t suffer at their hands. If these stories had to come out at all, this is a good time.

3) Cain’s Malfeasance Pales in Comparison to Some of his Republican Counterparts’ Bugaboos: Conservatives still don’t trust Mitt Romney. The GOP wants health care to be a keystone of its general election attack on President Obama. Obamacare will still be relevant if Romney wins the nomination, but the attacks won’t be as biting because of Mitt’s Massachusetts’ Plan. Plus, nobody knows what he’s going to do about abortion. That scares a lot of Republicans. Rick Perry is as unpredictable a candidate since Howard Dean…and things didn’t turn out too well for him. Newt Gingrich cannot deny his moral missteps. In a lesser-evils look at the GOP front-runners’ personal problems, Cain slips by.

4) Cain is a Black Republican: His fellow candidates won’t hit him on these harassment stories. Fox News and other Conservative media outposts want to be the cool kids embracing the new cool thing, so they will lay off, too. And Republican voters are looking for a demographic answer to not only President Obama, but also to the race and national origin gaps between the two parties. Marco Rubio is that answer, but Cain is the fill-in for this election cycle.

5) Cain has Nothing to Lose: Think about it. Cain is running for President of the United States. His poll numbers show him right up there in the top-tier of GOP candidates seeking their party’s nomination (note: We all know that national poll numbers aren’t the gospel during primary season. Still, Cain’s numbers are good signs for him.). He is in his mid-60s and likely won’t be running for national office again. He is still trying to sell his book. And each extra week he spends on the campaign trail, he may be able to raise his speaking fee by a few thousand dollars. Wouldn’t you fight through this week, too?