Kristen Soltis: Is This the Last Gasp of the GOP?

Following the 2008 election, I counted myself among those concerned Republicans who looked ahead to future elections and saw trouble. Many key voters groups — Latinos, young voters, independents — swung heavily toward Barack Obama and the Democrats, with potential long-term implications for American elections.

Since that time, Obama’s coalition has weakened. His job approval among these groups has fallen precipitously since the early months of his presidency. Central to Obama’s falling ratings is voter perception about his handling of the economy. In late February, Quinnipiac found that only 41 percent of voters approve of how Obama is handling the economy. As the economy tops poll after poll as the No. 1 issue to voters, it is no surprise why Obama’s numbers are struggling.

Given all this, why aren’t Republicans enjoying wide leads in the polls? Because for all that voters are disappointed in Obama, they don’t particularly love Republicans. In fact, polls show that Republicans have slightly poorer brand image than do Democrats. And while voters may not be thrilled with Obama’s handling of the economy, polls also show they don’t place greater trust in Republicans on the issue.

It will be tempting for Republicans to see Obama’s low job approval and to decide that the best way to win is to make Obama unacceptable. Yet for Republicans, the key to this election isn’t turning more voters away from Obama.

It’s not enough to convince voters that Obama isn’t working. A majority of voters are already there.

The key, therefore, is convincing voters that the G.O.P. provides an alternative, a vision for the nation and a plan to improve the economy. It’s about building trust in the G.O.P.’s ability to handle the issues that matter most to voters. It’s about proving that Republicans know how to get America working again.

(Cross-posted, with permission of the author, from New York Times, “Room for Debate”)