Agree with Jonathan et al that, left to his own devices, Romney would pick Portman. Nothing screams competence, or boring white guy, louder. The problem is that Romney’s main thrust will be to run against big government/trillion-dollar deficits, and tapping the GWB OMB guy, as Mark notes, isn’t the best way to drive that message. More importantly, since Romney has amply demonstrated over the last 6 years that he’ll do or say absolutely anything to win, I think he’ll listen when his advisers counsel him that Portman doesn’t bring enough pizzazz or oomph to the ticket. As for Jonathan’s claim that Portman is “beloved by the base,” he’s right if we’re talking about the base, circa-1965. This is not your grandfather’s Republican party. It’s not even your big brother’s.
Agree with Mark that Huckabee would be a great pick and would attract the evangelicals who are approximately as excited about Mitt as they would be about a 20-mile barefoot walk across hot coals to get a colonoscopy. Disagree with Mark that a Susan Collins or Olympia Snowe pick is Mitt’s best chance. I think it’s his best chance to spark a third-party style rebellion on his right flank that he can’t contain which could distract him throughout the fall and cripple his chances.
Agree with John Johnson that Nikki Haley has an intriguing profile. Many Americans will also be intrigued when they read about her past controversies, which you can do by simply Googling “Nikki Haley” and seeing what the first suggestion is. Based on the first-hand, published accounts of a couple prominent South Carolina Republican politicos, her exploits could make another Southern Governor, 1992-era Bill Clinton, look like a piker in comparison.
Agree w/ Ron that Allen West has an interesting profile but the last thing gaffe-plagued Mitt needs right now is a loose cannon. Too much of a wildcard.
Agree w/ Artur that Mitt needs to go long. And Condi Rice is sure intriguing on a lot of levels. Disagree that her open pro-choice stance would be a “mini-furor” that would quickly go away. Since the base doesn’t trust that former Planned Parenthood donor Romney is truly pro-life, I can’t imagine them swallowing a pro-choicer as the #2. I think she creates lingering base problems throughout the fall.
Rubio won’t survive a vetting, I don’t think. Not b/c of the Mormon thing or even the possible contradictions in his family narrative, but b/c of his money-grubbing/sketchiness as FL House Speaker and on the way there. Lots of stories bubbling up from friends of mine who served with him in the Leg down there.
I wouldn’t be so quick to rule out Jindal or Martinez, though Romney will surely vet them far more rigorously than Palin was vetted. Martinez lets him check a lot of boxes and potentially helps in at least three swing states, NM, CO, and FL. I’d be interested to see what the vetting on her turns up, and no doubt so will Romney.
I’ve heard Jindal speak twice and was extremely impressed. Since he’s been in public life basically his whole adulthood w/o a whiff of scandal – he ran Louisiana’s hospital system at age 25 (!) – I actually think he may be able to survive a vetting. That’s one upside of having outsized ambitions from a young age: he seems to have lived a very upstanding life. And Mitt would love Jindal’s Bain-esque discipline and “Mr. Fix-It” style. A guy who competently managed 40 percent of a mid-sized state’s budget at age 25 is a Romney wet dream. Also I think Jindal could energize the base and we know Tea Partiers love to be able to say “Look! I’m not racist!” (See, e.g., Herman Cain/Allen West.) Last, he could tap into an awful lot of presently untapped Indian-American donations.
Read the rest of… The RPs Debate the 2012 GOP VP: Jeff Smith Salutes
The continued evolution of the race and the overall direction of the economy seem likely to guide Romney’s choice. I agree with Jonathan that Portman is a safe, experienced choice whom Romney would choose if left to his own devices. The question remains, will Romney have enough confidence to buck his advisers and choose someone who doesn’t “excite the base” or offer some demographic appeal? Jonathan makes a particularly salient point regarding the Romney campaign’s penchant – thus far – for steadily plodding its way forward while other campaigns fall by the wayside. Romney will face intensifying pressure, however, to choose someone “exciting.” It’s important to recall that before the financial collapse in September 2008, McCain’s choice of Palin looked like a master stroke. He had taken the lead in the race, and polling data exists that had he opposed TARP, he would have been President (whether that would have been the right choice is another issue entirely).
Comparing the state of the McCain campaign before and after the 2008 Republican Convention, I still think the Palin selection was a strong net positive for the ticket (at least politically). In fact, that example provides the strongest support for those who argue for a base-focused VP selection. The challenge is finding someone like Palin who has been vetted on the national level and who possesses the gravitas and experience that she did not have. [As Mark Nickolas suggested,] Mike Huckabee does seem to fit this description. Yet, I perceive two obstacles to his selection, even if he were otherwise willing: 1) during the 2008 primaries, Huckabee made remarks that were perceived as anti-Mormon; while he has studiously avoided repeating that mistake while complimenting Romney during this cycle, I suspect that Romney has a long memory in this regard; and 2) Huckabee’s record on spending and related issues is perceived as decidedly unconservative and his selection could ultimately cause problems with the Tea Partiers.
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal would bring both diversity and decidedly conservative credentials to the ticket. Perhaps even more important, he has gained a reputation for competence in crisis -his performance both before and after Hurricane Gustav in 2008 earned bipartisan plaudits (particularly as compared to Katrina) and his response to the BP disaster also appears to have been solid. His experience positions him as credible critic of the current Administrations’ energy policy – a particularly critical asset if gas prices continue to rise.
Mitt Romney won’t be the first candidate confronted with the choice between “going safe” or “going long” in picking a VP. The problem for the imaginative among us is that the dramatic option tends to boomerang badly–think not just Palin, but Quayle in 88, who as laughable as it sounds to our ears, was initially viewed by the Bush team as a charismatic, fresh alternative; or Ferraro in 84, whose finances almost caused her to be replaced; or even the Reagan flirtation with picking Gerald Ford in 80, a forced marriage that might have made Reagan look quite dependent.
A campaign that has painted so carefully within the lines as Romney’s won’t risk joining that list, which means that Susanna Martinez, Bobby Jindal, and Marco Rubio need not apply. Not one of them, for all of their genuine talents, has ever been examined by the national press or subjected to a full background scrub–in fact, the one who has gotten some hint of scrutiny, Rubio, has already been tarnished by it. The risk aversion in the Romney camp will probably lead them to Rob Portman, a survivor of two federal confirmation processes and a politician from a state that Republicans have to have. As for the notion that he doesn’t help that much in Ohio, he certainly can’t hurt.
I will add one wishful note that actually combines the safe and the dramatic. Her name is Condoleeza Rice, a possibility who has endured the glare of ten years of attention, who exudes gravitas on an issue that will matter more this fall than we think today–defense cuts–and who has a record of seriousness on the other sleeper issue, the erosion of public education. Did I also mention that she ends in one fell swoop the narrative that this race is one between an inclusive, multicultural future and a lurch back to a whiter, duller past?
Read the rest of… The RPs Debate the 2012 GOP VP: Artur Davis Volleys
This is a fascinating question. Although I am not sanguine about Romney’s chances no matter who he picks, his choice will help shape the future of the GOP, just as the choice of Sarah Palin has, for better or worse, helped shape the debate within the GOP since 2008.
With that in mind, I will say two things:
1. If Mitt picks another white guy, no matter his ideological or geographical advantages, he loses. Period. it is not tokenism, but simple recognition of the demographics of the electorate and the hole that the primary discussions have dug for the party that leads me to that conclusion.
2, He also needs to shore up his right. Even his worst enemy knows that. He could also use someone with a lot more zip to deliver attacks.
So, I do not make predictions , but I think Allen West should stay by the phone.
My pick for VP is South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.
Southern state, viewed as a bit anti-establishment, and a female running mate would be an effort to make up for the detrimental effect of the primary on Republican support amongst female voters.
I agree with Mark Nickolas that Mike Huckabee would be an extraordinary pick by Romney for Vice President.
Indeed, for all the reasons Mark mentions, if Huckabee were in the race today for President, I think he would have run away with the nomination several weeks ago.
And that’s the rub. Huckabee made a very deliberative decision several months ago not to run for President.
Whether it was family considerations, financial (he seems to be making bank on Fox and the lecture circuit), a political calculation that Obama couldn’t be beat in an improving economy and a divided GOP, or a sudden burst of sanity that led to a realization that being President is an excruciatingly awful job in this hyper-toxic political system, he decided not to run.
With those same calculations, I just can’t imagine he would accept the bottom half of what seems to be a careening ticket.
If Huckabee still has national ambitions, my assumption would be that he would just wait until 2016 (or 2020) to run for President. Being second banana doesn’t seem to be in his gene pool.
At the top of Romney’s problems is that he’s not viewed as a real conservative among his base (loss of enthusiasm) and he’s lost so much likability among the swing voters. If Marco Rubio wasn’t a freshman senator with his own family baggage, he’d be a shoe-in, but I say not this year.
First term New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez would have been my call but not for what Sarah Palin to destroy any chance that someone who fits her own political profile could get picked.
I think Jonathan’s choice of Portman is a good pick if Romney wanted to project a thoughtful, businesslike team, but Romney’s problems aren’t ones that Portman picks, and remember that Portman was Bush’s OMB director in 2006 and 2007 and that could bite them in a message that what America needs is not a return to Bush economic policies. Romney can’t just go safe and hope to win.
My pick…is Mike Huckabee. A seasoned governor. Likable. Conservatives love him. America never hated him. Principled.
I’m not saying that they could win. I actually don’t see a scenario where Romney wins the general unless he’s willing to infuriate his base by selecting a true moderate like Susan Collins or retiring Olympia Snowe. But if I have to predict who he picks, it’s Huckabee.
By Jonathan Miller, on Mon Mar 26, 2012 at 8:30 AM ET
The RP’s Provocation
Now that the Mitt Romney has won the GOP Presidential primary (OK, it’s not official, but it’s been pretty much declared by the GOP Establishment and the mainstream media), it’s time to start prognosticating about who will be his selection as the Vice Presidential nominee.
So today at The Recovering Politician, our contributors will make their best guesses over the course of the day in our irregular Monday feature, “The RPs Debate.”
Tune in every half hour or so for a new response, featuring our bi-partisan, multi-cultural, and sometimes, downright wacky former politicians and Friends of RP.
And of course, you are welcomed — prodded even — to contribute your thoughts in the comments section below. At the end of the day, I will post the best entries on the site.
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So I will get things started. (I can’t be any worse than with my NCAA bracket. Tied for 60th out of 77? Ouch.)
The 2012 Republican nominee for Vice President of the United States will be…U.S. Senator Rob Portman from Ohio.
Portman is the rare pol who’s both beloved by the GOP base and respected across the aisle. He has an extraordinary resume, with pretty much every box checked from elite education to congressional service to senior executive branch positions.
Good morning, and welcome to another offering of Prix Fixe Politics! I hope your brackets aren’t yet busted, and that you’ve enjoyed our first few weeks of spring. In the meantime, here is today’s meal…
Appetizer: I thought we could step away from politics for one meal and try something interactive. Here are five qualities of life that, frankly, all sound ideal. However, only one takes top billing with men, while one takes the top spot with women:
-More Choices
-More Time
-Fewer Hassles
-No Worries
-More Money
How well do you know American men and women? If you’d like, reply to this e-mail and send me your guesses — one for each gender. I’ll keep track of how everyone does, and in the next e-mail I’ll announce which two choices are truly what Americans want most in 2012. For one of the winners which I’ll select at random, a drink’s on me next time I’m in your city.
By Michael Steele, on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 8:30 AM ET
Reports The Huffington Post:
Former GOP Chairman Michael Steele told an MSNBC panel on Friday that he does not think Mitt Romney will be able to get the 1,144 delegates necessary to clinch the GOP presidential nomination before the Republican National Convention.
“If you take the most generous number of delegates that Romney would have at this point, whether it’s 419 or more, the RNC I think has fewer numbers, give him all of the remaining eight winner-take-all states, that’s about 382 delegates,” Steele said. “He still doesn’t get to 1,144 when the remaining states are proportional.”
Steele explained that Romney would have to win 50-60 percent of the vote in the remaining states where delegates are awarded proportionally in order to get to the magic number of 1,144 delegates. “Do you see Mitt taking 50-60 percent of those proportional delegates?” Steele asked. “No. So it’s going to be tough for him, at this point, to get there.”
Jeff Smith’s Response
I wouldn’t be so quick to rule out Jindal or Martinez, though Romney will surely vet them far more rigorously than Palin was vetted. Martinez lets him check a lot of boxes and potentially helps in at least three swing states, NM, CO, and FL. I’d be interested to see what the vetting on her turns up, and no doubt so will Romney.
