Jason Grill: If Ron Paul Wants to Be President, He Should Run with Third Party

There is no doubt Republican presidential candidate Congressman Ron Paul (R-Texas) has a great following. He has thousands of motivated volunteers, a bunch of money, and a message that is resonating with many including the 18-25 demographic. He never panders to any audience or anyone. He has enormous crowds chanting “President Paul! President Paul! President Paul!” He has been a success in the early primary and caucus states and has a strong organization going forward. He has a seat at the reserved table of Republican presidential politics.

So what is the problem? When asked by ABC reporter Terry Moran if he sees himself in the Oval Office, Paul answered “Not Really.” Do you think Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, or Newt Gingrich think this? Ron Paul and his campaign team believe they can go all the way to the Republican convention and garner enough delegates to either win or play a major role. At this point, Paul has not really attacked frontrunner Mitt Romney choosing rather to go after other rivals in hopes to make it a mano e mano race with Mitt. Most observers and pundits view a Ron Paul nomination as an impossibility at this point, but see the Paul candidacy and movement as something that could alter the Republican convention and platform moving forward.

So is Ron Paul a prophet or can he really become President of the United States?  In my opinion, if he “really” wanted to take up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in January of 2013, he would run as a third-party candidate. His foreign policy message gives the hawkish Republican establishment hives. His social values and civil rights message excites some Democrats. His libertarian philosophy makes the young voters of this country do cartwheels.

Ron Paul could realistically get more than a third of the vote in November. You have to figure that if Romney wins the nomination that Paul would get at least twenty percent of the Republican vote because of Mitt’s flip-flops and his real identity as a Massachusetts moderate. He would get most, if not nearly all, of the Libertarian leaning voters. This is potentially five to ten percent of the vote. Paul would garner some independent voters and would steal five percent of the votes from Democrats who have soured on President Obama. That puts Ron Paul at around thirty to thirty-five percent of the overall 2012 vote. Lastly, you can’t discount the young voters and newly registered voters who will go to the polls to shake things up and show they don’t like politics as usual. This gives Ron Paul enough votes to win and a legitimate shot to shock the current political system. Paul could make history.  

Many in the Republican Party and in the media believe a Ron Paul third-party run would do nothing but hand President Obama four more years in the White House. The media shouldn’t be so fast to discount the power of the support Paul is getting from all sides of the political spectrum. Many also believe that Ron Paul will not go rouge because he doesn’t want to damage his son’s, Senator Rand Paul (R-Kentucky), future in the Republican Party. However, this is the Presidency of the United States, if you see a path you follow it.

Ron Paul said after the Iowa Caucuses, “The best way to promote a cause is to win elections.” He has a better chance of winning the big prize as a third-party candidate at this point. This should not be underestimated. The ball is now in Ron Paul and his movement’s court.