Jeff Smith: Obama’s Chances in North Carolina

North Carolina isn’t a must-win for Obama; it was icing on the cake last time. But I do think he’ll win there. Like Colorado but unlike Ohio, North Carolina is a swing state that is moving steadily in Democrats’ direction because of long-term demographic trends, primarily the continued influx of tech workers and other highly educated voters into the Research Triangle.

The state’s growth is centered in the progressive middle third of the state, as opposed to the more conservative East and the Appalachian West, a region where Obama has struggled to connect.

The resilience of Obama’s numbers in North Carolina — contrasted with his relative weakness in some Rust Belt swing states — suggests that he will win there. But it’s a stretch to call it a must-win state, as there are many ways to get to 270 without it. Remember, Clinton got 379 Electoral College votes in ’96 and never even made an effort in North Carolina. Few states go from uncompetitive to must-win status for a party in the span of four elections.

Cross-posted from Politico’s “Arena”