Artur Davis: Will Obama’s Jobs Plan Work?

As a political instrument, the speech was effective and will pull Obama’s polling numbers back to an even approval/disapproval split: each element of the plan was poll-tested to cover the right bases, and the relatively non-conciliatory, “pass this now” tone will energize disaffected liberals. As economic policy, it is the 09 stimulus cut in half, and the parts of it that pass (extension of the payroll tax cuts, tax credits for new hires) will have a predictably mild stimulative effect.

But congressional Republicans have the votes to exact a price, and they will push Obama toward spending cuts that he does not want to make. They will not yield on taxes any more in the future than they have in the past because, frankly, they don’t need to: Obama has to have a jobs bill and will give ground on taxes to get it. Republicans know this.

There are two missed opportunity here. First, if he had offered to trade marginal rate reductions for a rollback of corporate loopholes, Obama could have gained more leverage to win concessions on taxes. Second, the plan needs an aggressive job-training component to tackle the employee skills gap that is puffing up the unemployment numbers and is part of why wages are frozen and consumer spending is weak.