Zac Byer: On to Florida!

Thank you very much for all of your responses to my first update from New Hampshire.  I will eat crow and admit I was too quick to anoint Romney the GOP nominee, but then again, most did.  Now, with no clear front runner, we’ve finally got some real excitement on our hands.  Sitting on a train to Washington, DC from where I’ll leave for Florida tomorrow, I wanted to send out a few thoughts post-South Carolina and pre-Sunshine State.

-Everything changed in Myrtle Beach last Monday night.  Sitting in the debate hall that night felt like being at the Palestra for a Penn-Villanova basketball game back when both teams consistently won games.  The seating arrangement made for an interesting dynamic —  the back risers were like the bleachers at Yankee Stadium, and the front seats were like the corporate boxes.  You heard golf claps from the front, and booing, jeering, and hissing from the back.  But when Newt Gingrich hit back at moderator Juan Williams’ race-baiting, suggesting young people get a job to learn the value of a hard-earned dollar, both sections erupted.  Until that night in South Carolina, there had not been a standing ovation at a debate since 1980.  And that standing ovation, well-deserved or not, lit the fire under Gingrich that he hasn’t felt since December.  Something I found fascinating that wasn’t shown on TV was the candidates’ interactions during the commercial breaks.  Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, and Perry (still a candidate at the time) would hurry down into the audience to glad-hand, take pictures, and chat with supporters.  Mitt Romney didn’t follow suit.  Instead, he walked off the stage and stopped at the bottom of the steps, where his wife Ann quickly met him.  Romney spoke to nobody but her during the break, effectively cordoning himself off from anybody who wanted to shake his hand and say “Go get ’em.”  His seclusion during those five minute breaks was a microcosm of his interactions with the voters during this election cycle — disinterested, unengaged, and lacking energy.

-Newt v. Mitt…or Mitt v. MItt?  The money’s on this being a two-man race (although more on Rick Santorum in a second).  Romney came out swinging at last night’s NBC debate in Tampa.  He hit Gingrich on his ties to Freddie Mac (important in Florida because of the high foreclosure rate).  He hit Gingrich for being a loose cannon incapable of leading, reminding viewers that Gingrich was effectively ousted from the Speakership after two terms.  It was a kitchen-sink approach that would have been more effective if the audience had been able to applaud — that there was no audience applause throughout much of the debate will marginalize its impact.  Romney’s attacks were relevant, but they weren’t particularly sharp.  When he tries to engage Gingrich directly and ask him questions from the next podium, Romney struggles.  Unlike Gingrich, Romney packs less rhetorical punch and isn’t quick enough with the headline-grabbing one-liners.  Romney must remain focused this week, and not get too wrapped up in trying to destroy Gingrich in one fell swoop.  His defense of his work at Bain is getting better — last night, Romney used the phrase “free enterprise” a half-dozen times in related discussions.  That is a better phrase than “capitalism,” but not as good as “economic freedom.”  “Capitalism” implies cronyism and big business, but “economic freedom” invokes each of our individual liberty to work and be successful without the heavy hand of government holding us down.

-Santorum isn’t going anywhere. Until he runs out of money or time, Santorum will hang tough.  Talking to him several times in South Carolina, I got the sense he thinks its inevitable that voters will get so fed up with Romney and Gingrich that they will turn to him.   Foremost, he sees himself as the conservative candidate bound to benefit from a Gingrich collapse.  But he needs to spend less time attacking Romney, and more time attacking Gingrich.  Gingrich and Romney will take care of each other, and Santorum does not have the money to start a war with Romney.  If he can better draw the distinction between him and Gingrich, Santorum may end up with the last laugh.

-Advice:  Don’t do anything interesting…unless you’ve never done anything interesting. Santorum must, as he is still the candidate on the outside looking in.  Ron Paul won’t change his approach any time soon, as he realizes he already holds enough influence to be awarded a prime-time speaking slot at the Republican National Convention.  Rightfully so, Gingrich has already changed his tenor and rhetoric since his Saturday-night victory speech in South Carolina.  He will answer Romney’s attacks by saying it is “misinformation,” then pivot to re-direct the audience to why he draws the sharpest contrast to President Obama.  Now that Romney is no longer the Secretariat of this campaign, he has to get more interesting.  He needs a zinger in Thursday’s debate, or a new policy proposal that is easy to understand and clearly benefits Floridians.  People love or hate Gingrich — they actually feel something about him.  Nobody loves Mitt, and nobody really hates him either.  That’s his problem — he naturally is not an interesting figure, and he hasn’t had to do anything interesting up to this point because of his position in the polls.  But things are changing quickly, and Romney would be best served to stop talking to his wife during debate breaks and start interacting with the American public.

As for a Florida prediction, all bets are off.  But I wager that the weather will be better in Orlando than in Manchester.