Whether Obama’s reelection is considered a slam-dunk, an uncertain proposition, or an impossibility depends entirely on the data you consider a credible indicator these days.

If you ask some on the right (as well as more than a few depressed Democrats), Obama is toast. The data to support their case are straightforward: no president (since the advent of modern survey research) has beenreelected with an approval rating below 48 percent. Obama’s numbers these days are below that threshold and are just south of Jimmy Carter’s at this point in his presidency. Furthermore, the highest unemployment rate that accompanied a president’s reelection is 7.2 percent, a far cry from today’s 9 percent. Republican voters are more excited. Young voters aren’t going to show upwhen their unemployment rate is through the roof. Not to mention, the new electoral college map handsRepublicans six freebie electors if they simply hold the states McCain won in 2008. Simple conclusion: the Obama reelection effort is doomed.

Or is it?

Consider the case made by Obama-optimists: the long-term trends are in his favor. Back in 2009, James Carville and Ruy Teixeira were writing books, declaring the somewhat inevitable demographic-driven decline of the GOP. Even today, Obama retains strength among minorities and young voters. (The latest Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin report makes the case that demographics are a strength for Obama.) Obama’s campaign is raising millions upon millions and saving it all to spend in the general election. Not a single television in America won’t be bombarded with ads reminding them of those Republican meanies in Congress and of who was in charge when we got Osama bin Laden. Republicans may put up a fight, but he’s just too strong a campaigner. Case closed.

So which is it?

Count me somewhere in the middle.

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Kristen Soltis: Is Obama Destined to Win or Doomed to Fail?