John Y. Brown, III: Political Advice on the Fourth of July

Happy 4th of July.

And some personal reflections on a firecracker of a political race that just transformed from a cheap sparkler barely worth lighting into an expensive battle between a couple of souped up Roman Candles, so to speak, in the fireworks department.

Here’s my unsolicited and completely ignored advice to the two major candidates for Kentucky’s US Senate seat.

To challenger and current Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes:
You are getting an overflowing of detailed advice from every corner of the state and nation.

My advice to you would be to ignore all the advice you are receiving and trust your instincts. Your instincts have served you well to date and I think you should play to your strengths. When in doubt, dig down and go with your gut.

I don’t mean you should blithely and arrogantly ignore the advice and commentary about the race and your campaign. Listen. But don’t be transfixed by it and certainly don’t be transformed by other’s opinions of what they say you should say and do.

Alison, you should embrace that you are the endearing and energetic youthful candidate who is very bright and knowledgeable— but also unpredictable. It’s not your youth or political party or campaign style that distinguishes you most for Senator McConnell. It’s the fact that Sen McConnell is the most prepared, disciplined, and predictable politician on the political scene today. And Alison Lundergan Grimes is just the opposite—and will daily be a stark contrast on a visceral level to Kentucky voters of both the benefits and shortcomings of being the kind of ultra-methodical political personality Senator McConnell is.

Watching Mitch’s campaign will be like sitting through a long strategic low scoring baseball game controlled by good pitching.

Watching Alison’s campaign will be like watching a pick-up street basketball game, by comparison. You are drawn to watch the street basketball game not because you admire a well coached , managed and disciplined team strategy but rather you watch because of the chance that something amazing may happen….even if unintended. You feel young again and want more passion and conviction that you can believe in from your US Senator. Or at least you think you do.

As for Senator McConnell, on the other hand, I would suggest running a disciplined tight ship and not taking a day or even several hours for granted. Be light and funny not exasperated and bored with your younger opponent. You must show respect and you must show manners reflective of the sexes in the South. Real Men, as it were, needn’t go for the jugular and would be better off going for the funny bone. You can still be tough on Alison but not viciously or gratuitously. Southern gentlemen and ladies will be watching. Humor will serve you better than detailed side-by-side hard hitting comparisons.

Sen McConnell, you have to adeptly balance the perception of not taking Secretary Grimes seriously enough while simultaneously being careful not being viewed as taking her too seriously. You want to be confident but not cocky. Constructive but not reactive. Like you are going through a necessary exercise you cheerfully have agreed to that requires concentration– but not perspiration.

Be the well oiled, disciplined and well-managed machine you know best how to be—and chip away methodically and relentlessly. Try to engage more and show your personality but only if natural and genuine. Don’t ever appear to be trying to out-Alison, Alison. Make her play your game on your playing field in your way without letting her be aware there are other options available to her.

Senator, unlike Alison, I would recommend taking my advice. But I realize that you are probably already 4 or 5 steps ahead of needing or wanting advice from a constituent from the other party explaining his suggestions to your US Senate campaign, which you’ve won now 5 times in a row. But approaching your campaign in the way I’ve described is playing to your strengths and you should, I believe, repeat the approaches from past campaign successes —but never count out your opponent’s intangible qualities or unpredictable style.

As a candidate, Alison has more potential than experience; more pluck than planning; and more personal appeal than detailed campaign strategy. Whether Alison is the underdog or not, she will be cheered as the strong and decisive lady who cut through all the political chatter and said “Yes” more as a matter of the heart than the head—- as contrasted with the seasoned and senior US Senator who is best recognized for saying “No” to new ideas with calculated élan and impunity

Sen. McConnell, your greatest strength, in gambling terms, is that you are essentially the House in this political gambit. Over time you may grind out your endearing and energetic opponent but will never be as appealing as she is in the process. The House never is. You play the odds and are a master tactician. But you’ll never be able to completely ground out your opponent. Alison will always be waiting in the wings and never seem to be winded while coming back to bat not with a long term strategy but willingness to swing for the fences time and time again

At the end of this race—returning to our earlier analogy— Team Mitch will be viewed as the solid and reliable master relief pitcher who is trying to close out a win in a game they have been ahead all 9 innings.

But Alison Lundergan Grimes will be walking, working and talking fast, frenetic and furiously just a few feet behind.

To borrow an analogy from another sport popular in Kentucky, boxing, Senator McConnell, if this political match is decided on points, you win. But if it’s decided by knockout, Alison is the likely winner.

This race will be decided largely, in my view, by voter mood during the final few months of the campaign. Voters–come next fall —may be in the mood for a masterful tactician relief pitcher to successfully take the field and close out another win. Or they may be a bit more restless and willing for change. And go with the up-and-comer just called up from the minors but taking the majors by storm. Only time and political, social and economic winds will tell.

The race won’t be about “Hope” or “Staying the course” or a dozen other political cliches. It will likely instead be about something more basic: To stick with what we know (sticking with the status quo) or trying something new (“rolling the dice,” so to speak). And how fitting it is that the race takes place in a state with a deep gambling tradition but today is ambivalent about expanding gaming.

And if both candidates completely and wisely ignore my unsolicited and free advice, we can expect to be witness to one of the smartest and dynamic; substantive and engaging political campaigns in the nation—and one that will be as difficult to predict as it will be reflective of emerging national trends. A bellwether, as they say up North. A doozy as we say down South.

And it will all happen right here in ‘lil ole Kentucky’s race for US Senate. The political race next year with something–in style and substance and symbolism—for everyone. And profound political meaning for our country.

Pull up a seat. And make sure you’re are registered. The nation is watching.