John Y. Brown, III: Mitt’s “Father Jeremiah” Moment

It was supposed to be the political scandal that would sink candidate Barack Obama’s campaign. But didn’t.

Was it a politically significant event for Barack Obama? Yes, in my view. But not because it caused his supporters to bolt. It didn’t.

What it did do is give a concrete event on which those who already had a vague unease about voting for Barack Obama —and weren’t going to vote for him anyway —something to point to and hang their hat on as the reason for not voting for him.

Yes, they were uncertain about Barack Obama—his politics, his origins, his qualifications for president and even his name. But those things weren’t as tangible or easy to talk about as the Father Jeremiah video which was disturbing and could explain why someone would not want to vote for Barack Obama.

Similarly, I think there are a goodly number of voters out there who have a vague unease about Mitt Romney—his politics, his beliefs, what sort of president he would make, and yes, even his name, too. But like four years ago these are difficult matters to discuss in convincing specifics. However, a video tape of him saying disturbing things about Americans is something tangible that those already unlikely to vote for Romney can point to as an understandable reason for why they won’t be voting for him.

In both cases, videos which are taken out of context (For Obama , it’s a theological rant by his longtime minister; For Mitt, it is the candidate himself playing to his audience at fundraiser) and are used as “evidence” to support what certain voter already “vaguely feel” about a certain candidate and used as “hard proof” –even though it’s probably not the kind of “evidence” or “proof” that would move other voters in the same way—or at all.

Do I think the video will hurt Mitt Romney? Not really. I made light of the leaked video in a post yesterday that a few friends saw as unfair and unfunny. Ironically, I like Mitt Romney a lot more than most people in his own party seem to. He would have been my first and clear and only real choice for nominee if I were a Republican. I would not have flirted with the half dozen other “more conservative” candidates.

And there is a “story behind the story” about Mitt Romney’s candidacy that impresses me greatly but no one ever seems to pick up on. He’s still here. He is unflappable and will not go down. That impresses me. 98% of most presidential candidates would have flamed out, given up, blow up, or taken their ball and gone home after all the craziness Romney has had thrown at him. And that trait of persistence, ironically, more than perhaps any other trait, is what impresses me about Mitt Romney’s ability to be president.

And doubly ironically, that is the same trait that impresses me so much about Mitt Romney’s opponent, too.