In his latest entry for Politico’s Arena, contributing RP Jeff Smith answers the question as to whether President Obama’s support among the Jewish community is slipping:
It will probably depend on the alternative.
If, say, Huntsman is nominated and runs on a secular domestic platform that includes a strong pro-Israel plank, he could garner 35 percent or more of the Jewish vote.
If, on the other hand, Republicans choose a bombastic conservative like Rick Perry – someone with a history of appointing creationist state school board candidates and pushing other reactionary social causes – then Republican Jewish support will remain around 20 percent. A far-right evangelical Christian like Perry with a social agenda that is anathema to Jews will only attract those Jews who are already part of the Republican base.
On a side note, the choice of Debbie Wasserman-Schultz as DNC chair should help prevent some defections.