Artur Davis: Can Obama Win Re-election?

Countless events will obviously reshape the answer to this question. But this is what should hearten Obama supporters about 2012: presidents in the modern era (post 1932) tend to be reelected, regardless of their political position a year out. And the three who have lost – Ford, Carter, and the first Bush – all overcame huge polling deficits and weak economies to become competitive in the final weeks. In fact, if Reagan and Carter don’t debate in the final week in ’80, and if Perot does not collapse the GOP base in ’92, as weak as they were, even Carter and Bush might have won.

This, however, is what should keep Democratic strategists up at night: not counting blacks, Obama’s approval ratings have dipped dramatically with every sector of his 2008 majority, including Latinos, Jews, independents, white working class voters, and whites under 29. In other words, even if Obama achieves the 2008 turnout model, there is no guarantee that he will duplicate his ’08 demographic performance levels. And if he does not, he will have almost no margin for error.

(Cross-posted, with permission of the author, from Politico’s Arena)