KY Senate 2014 (3/18/13)

Note: This RPI is a ranking of candidates in order of their odds of winning the general election. The model is based on political chatter, candidate strengths, likelihood of running, conventional wisdom and other factors.

1. Mitch McConnell

McConnell is still on top for now, especially as the Democrats continue to look for a candidate. The senior Senator smartly used tweets from a liberal PAC about his wife Elaine Chao’s ethnicity to his advantage last week. His campaign went on the air with its first ad of the election cycle featuring Chao. Some analysts said the situation was a gift to McConnell as it bought him sympathy, which has been hard to come by for the long-time Senator famous for waging brutal campaigns.

2. Ashley Judd

As chatter grew louder that Ashley Judd might run for Senate, so did criticism of the actress. Stories featuring Judd’s “crazy” quotes, accounts of films in which she had bared her chest, and a speech she recently gave at GWU offered critics fodder. Meanwhile, some Democratic sources said the DSCC is not yet ready to go all-in on Judd and is trying to recruit other Dems to run. Judd has still not said officially if she’ll run, but in my eyes – unless something big happens – Ashley Judd is running for Senate.

3. Alison Lundergan Grimes

Many Democrats say Alison Lundergan Grimes is being heavily courted for this race, but the Ky. Secretary of State is very mum about the 2014 cycle. The Democrats want a female candidate for the party’s McConnell opponent, and as the state’s top vote-getter in the last election they see her as a very viable candidate. BUT, Grimes has a range of options in 2015.

4. Jack Conway

The AG is being urged by several Dems in all levels to take a hard look at the race. However, he appears remarkably more interested in the Governor’s race in 2015.

5. Unnamed Tea Party candidate

Ky. Tea Party operatives continue to threaten to back a McConnell primary opponent. Matt Bevin, rumored to be looking at becoming a primary opponent for McConnell, was criticized by some Tea Partiers when his name was floated a few weeks ago. He also recently distanced himself from a scandal at a trading company where he formerly worked.

Unranked:

Crit Luallen

The Democrats would love a female candidate, but Luallen has said she is not interested in the race and is very seriously looking at running for Gov in 2015.

Steve Beshear

The governor is considered a “nuclear option.” He is overwhelmingly popular, but it is very unlikely he will run.

Ed Marksberry

Remains unranked. The Owensboro Democrat announced his candidacy months ago. It doesn’t appear he has the backing of the party.

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Email or tweet your comments, complaints, suggestions to Editor Bradford Queen, who prepares the RPI without any editorial direction or input from The RP.