KY U.S. Senate 2014

Note: This RPI is a ranking of candidates in order of their odds of winning the general election. The model is based on political chatter, candidate strengths, likelihood of running, conventional wisdom and other factors.

1. Mitch McConnell

Quite simply, it’s hard to beat an incumbent. It’s especially hard to beat an incumbent that is as politically shrewd and possesses the fundraising prowess that Kentucky’s senior Senator does.

2. Ashley Judd

If she runs, expect a great deal of money to be poured into the campaign against McConnell. Judd would get incredible backing from outside the Commonwealth. Doesn’t need to build name recognition, but would need to explain some positions, and voters would likely listen. Would have a better chance against McConnell if she can turn the race into an “insider vs. outsider” narrative.

3. Alison Lundergan Grimes

Don’t discount the Secretary. Is interested in the race, and is the popular choice among many in the in-state Democratic establishment. In a primary race against Judd, she could win if it were a “moderate vs. liberal race” since many Dems would see her as the more conservative “Kentucky Democrat.” Conventional wisdom says if Judd runs, Grimes won’t.

4a. Crit Luallen

The Democrats want a female candidate – and who better than Crit Luallen? She’s won two statewide races already, is well-liked and could raise plenty of money. BUT she’s more interested in governing, not legislating. She’ll wait for Gov in 2015.

4b. Steve Beshear

Has been called the Dem “nuclear option.” The governor is the most popular politician in the state. Would have a higher RPI (#1) if he appeared interested in running. Word is that the First Lady wants him to stay home.

5. Unnamed Tea Party candidate (Matt Bevin, John Kemper)

The Tea Party platform resonates with many in the Commonwealth and can beat establishment Republicans; ask Rand Paul and Thomas Massie. Should a Tea Partier come out against McConnell, don’t think dissatisfied Republicans won’t listen.

6. John Tilley

Some Democrats want the State Rep from Western KY to run if Ashley jumps in. I’m hearing he’s more interested in running for a statewide office (AG) in 2015.

Unranked:

Larry Forgy

Isn’t interested in running as far as I know, but my, wouldn’t it be fun to see him infuse his Kentucky humor into a primary campaign against McConnell? National media would love soundbites from the former gubernatorial candidate.

Jack Conway

Some high-ranking Dems in Frankfort are telling the AG to take a look at the race, but he is “seriously considering” a run for Gov in 2015.

Morgan McGarvey

Some say the freshman state senator would mount a nice campaign. An energetic, handsome and well-spoken Louisvillian that could rival McConnell for votes in their hometown.

Ed Marksberry

The Owensboro Democrat announced his candidacy months ago. It doesn’t appear he has the backing of the party.

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Email or tweet your comments, complaints, suggestions to Editor Bradford Queen, who prepares the RPI without any editorial direction or input from The RP.