Allen Mayo: Judd Needs To Move Soon

With the ramping up of Ashley Judd’s possible Senate run, the question needs to be asked. What if she decides NOT to run against Mitch McConnell? Judd has the ball in her court right now, saying she’ll make her decision public by Derby Day. But how unfair is that for any other potential Democratic candidate? Plenty. Not to say another candidate couldn’t beat her in a primary, but top Kentucky Democrats know that a long, drawn out primary for the opportunity to run against Mitch McConnell, is the last thing they need if they have a prayer of ousting the Senator.

If you take a poll among most rank and file Dems, I would wager they all agree a primary battle is a bad idea. The majority would also likely say Judd has some good ideas, but realistically is too liberal for most Kentucky voters outside Louisville or Lexington. But saying that, I also think if Judd opts in to the race, she’ll get most of the support from Party leaders. Where am I going with this? Simple, if Judd waits until the first Saturday in May to say no, it sends the party and other candidates scrambling to grab the support AND money she may have received from the aforementioned leaders. If she opts out sooner rather than later, it can help that scrum of potential candidates level off and weed out the weaklings. If she does put this off until May, the fight could get fierce and downright ugly.

Put an ugly primary on top of running against one of the most well-funded incumbents in the country, and it’s a recipe for disaster. I don’t know what advice Judd is getting so far, but whoever she’s listening to better tell her a few things.

First, don’t draw this out. This isn’t like a UK basketball game when you foul late trying to extend the game. Voters will think you’re playing games with their time and attention, and will vanish in droves. Next, get a political operative from Kentucky to run the ground game. With a few rare exceptions, going to outside help hasn’t worked in the past. You need someone who knows the political landscape well. Lastly , if you ARE running, get yourself to Kentucky ASAP and stay here. Say hello to every person and horse, and give interviews to whoever asks . Do it soon, and make sure everyone knows where you bought your new house. The carpetbagger label is her major weakness and Mitch has already used it in an ad released last week. BTW–that fact alone should give Judd pause. If he’s already running ads against you before you declare, what’s going to happen when you DO run?

I’ll tell you what will happen. Gird up and prepare for a fight like you’ve never imagined, because if you ARE the Democratic nominee, McConnell is coming for you and he won’t be messing around. You want something he has owned for decades and he wants to keep it. Things will get nasty, and you will not like what will be said about you, and anyone else close to you with any weaknesses. Real, or otherwise. Hollywood has never been as real as Kentucky politics, so get ready.