Al Mayo: Mitch Is In T-R-O-U-B-L-E

Rather than write a knee-jerk column in the immediate aftermath of the annual Fancy Farm picnic, this year I opted to digest the events and write my conclusions. After two days of contemplation, and thought, I have reached one inescapeable conclusion.

Mitch McConnell is in trouble.

Not serious trouble, but enough to make him consider a few things. McConnell made his usual wry, snarky speech at the shindig, and with a huge crowd supporting him, he did just fine. But you know what? So did his main challenger, Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes. So did Democratic underdog Ed Marksberry. Worse for Mitch, so did Tea Partier and GOP challenger Matt Bevin. Every Senatorial hopeful who spoke brought the heavy lumber.

I think everyone expected Grimes to do well, but Bevin’s showing surprised most of us. Not because he’s incapable, but because he was such an unknown prior to this event. He took every chance he could to hammer McConnell and came off looking like a viable, intelligent candidate. This is potentially more difficult for Mitch than even Grimes, because it’s from within the GOP itself. Granted, the Tea Party has lost a bit of steam since Rand Paul was elected in Kentucky, but even McConnell has done his level best to identify with the faction in order to curry favor with those on the farthest right of the party. Having a REAL Tea Party candidate coming at him is a threat. I would not always have said that, but in Matt Bevin’s case it’s true. Why? Because he’s well-funded. Bevin has deep pockets, and has already demonstrated he has support from the national TP factions, so the dollars could be formidable.

McConnell is ALWAYS well-funded, and this cycle is no exception. BUT Mitch was figuring all along that he wouldn’t be facing a primary, so the war chest would go toward fighting Grimes. With the battle now joined, that seems to be a long way off. No doubt McConnell will run anti-Grimes ads, but how much will Bevin’s candidacy hamper Mitch and his established strategies?

Another unknown for McConnell is the aforementioned Rand Paul. While Paul has already endorsed McConnell for reelection, it will be interesting to see just how much support he sends Mitch’s way during the primary. Paul made his endorsement before Bevin entered the race, so he may be having second thoughts. Paul has a real high wire to walk here too. He’s looking to run for President, so aligning himself with one of the least-popular politicians in Washington, (Mitch), is something he has to think hard about. My guess is that Paul will stay away from the primary, and back whomever is the nominee.

I honestly think McConnell wins the nomination, but frankly the general election could be his closest ever, and his first-ever loss. It’s not because Grimes is so good–although I believe she is. It’s because he’s embattled right now. McConnell is being pilloried by critics for his obstructionist tactics, and sooner or later Kentuckians will get fed up if it continues. He made reference to his Washington influence during his Fancy Farm speech, but it’s getting to a tipping point on that situation. It’s a mark of just how divisive he’s become, that Harry Reid and John McCain have essentially ignored him in trying to avert a nuclear option on filibusters.

I know it’s worked in the past for McConnell, but he better try something new. Soon.