Al Mayo: Can Grimes Win? Yes – BUT!

Well, It’s finally official. Alison Lundergan Grimes will take the plunge and run for the U. S. Senate against Mitch McConnell. She’s by far the strongest candidate they have available, so it’s the best possible news for Democrats, but Grimes has her work cut out for her. She was flanked by family, friends and a few high-powered Kentucky Democrats. It was a decent show of party unity, and she will need every bit of it. We already know she’s been courted by national Democrats and promised plenty of funding. Let’s hope so, because she will be facing a GOP juggernaut for the next year-and-a-half or so. Grimes needs to be mega-prepared for MAJOR adversity in this campaign. She will face questions about inexperience, and her family, which has a long history in Democratic politics. Without a doubt, her integrity will come into question as well. It’s politics. That is what unfortunately happens in these races.

It’s probably no coincidence that anti-McConnell TV ads financed by a Democratic Political Action Committee, have been airing for the past week or so in Kentucky’s major media markets. Without question, they were softening the ground for today’s announcement. But, it should be noted that as soon as those ads began to appear, a rival GOP-aligned PAC began airing ads in those same markets showing Grimes, mentioning her by name, and directly linking her with Barack Obama. You remember him right? He’s the guy McConnell vowed to help defeat, and called it his only priority. Didn’t go well did it Mitch? i understand the attempted linkage, but the PACs , GOP, and McConnell might want to soft-pedal that connection. Any Democratic consultant worth a damn is looking to turn that kind of thing right back on Mitch by citing the failure to defeat Obama.

What to expect from this race? Look for nastiness. Pure and simple. Most of it coming from those PACs I mentioned before. Why the PACs? I’m glad you asked! Because using PACs allows any candidate to appear as though they are above the negative fray. Now, we all know PACs do what a campaign wants them to, but they cannot come right out and admit it. So they all basically lie a little to voters. I know that comes as a shock to you all. The PAC claims their independence, the candidates remain apart from the negative ads, and are allowed to have some deniablility when the ads get too rough. When the actual campaigns begin to pay for the negativity is when the real mud-slinging begins. But i suspect that won’t occur until primaries are done next May. I also wold not be a bit surprised if the various principals–PACs and campaigns–try to funnel money to potential primary opponents on each side. If there’s any possible way to toss a wrench into the opposition’s works, they will find a way.

Something else that was likely a big factor in the timing is that July 1 begins a new quarter of campaign financing, which means Grimes will not have to disclose any fund-raising until mid-October. It gives her a great chance to get some dollars in place without a glaring spotlight.

What I cannot stress enough is that Grimes can’t sit back, and wait for McConnell to make a mistake. It’s. Not. Going. To. Happen.

As for Grimes’ chances? Well, it’s a lot like the Kentucky Derby. If she manages to get a good trip and the track is fast, she has a shot at McConnell. It’s not a great shot, but the chance to beat him is there. IF her funding comes through as promised, and IF everything runs perfectly, she still must contend with the Master Campaigner Mitch McConnell. The one thing we can all bank on is that McConnell is ready for ANYTHING Grimes or the associated PACs can dig up. His folks are doing mounds of opposition research on her, and her background, and will leave nothing to chance. Moreover, McConnell’s team will likey vet their own guy again, just to see if any new weaknesses are showing. Grimes has plenty of able advisors and what seems to be ample financial support. Knowing all that, I give Alison Lundergan Grimes a 40 percent chance to unseat Mitch McConnell. That is based on what we know right now. It’s always possible some scandal or revelation will turn up on either side, so if that happens, i can’t be held to that prediction.

Can she win? Yes. But EVERYTHING has to go right for her.