In several well-read pieces here at The Recovering Politician, former Missouri State Senator (and contributing RP) Jeff Smith has analyzed the impact of redistricting on his one-time political rival Congressman Russ Carnahan, and then predicted that Carnahan would ultimately choose to challenge his fellow Democratic Congressman William Lacy Clay.
Turns out, Jeff was right. Here’s an excerpt from Real Clear Politics, “Carnahan Files for Congressional Seat.”
Scores of hopeful candidates turned out Tuesday to file for political offices in Missouri, including a pair of incumbent St. Louis congressman now poised to square off in a Democratic primary, despite legal uncertainty over the district boundaries.
The candidacy filing period for the 2012 elections kicked off as planned, even though Missouri still lacks a final map for the state Senate districts and the Missouri Supreme Court has yet to rule on challenges to the state and U.S. House districts.
The first to file Tuesday was Democratic U.S. Rep. Russ Carnahan of St. Louis, whose 3rd District was carved up and re-assigned to surrounding districts under a reapportionment plan enacted by the Republican-led state Legislature after the 2010 census. Until Tuesday, Carnahan has steadfastly affirmed he would run again in 2012 but had remained silent about in which district he would run _ hoping the Supreme Court would toss out the new map and order a do-over on the boundaries.
Carnahan filed to run in the 1st District in St. Louis, which currently is held by Democratic U.S. Rep. William Lacy Clay. Not too far behind Carnahan in line, Clay also filed to run for re-election Tuesday, setting up a battle in the August primaries that both congressmen declared they could win.